• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty DEA

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A Study on the Analysis of Container Ports' Efficiency using Uncertainty DEA model (불확실성 DEA모델을 이용한 컨테이너 항만의 효율성 분석 연구)

  • Pham, Thi-Quynh-Mai;Kim, Hwa-Young;Lee, Cheong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2016
  • Container port nowadays becomes one of the most vital link of the transportation chain, plays an important role in trading with other countries. Therefore, evaluating the operational efficiency of container ports to reflect their status and to reveal their position in this competitive environment is very important for port development. Although there have been lots of methods used to measure efficiency in the past, the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model is still the most commonly applied approach. However, the data used in the model sometimes is complex and uncertain to handle using the basic DEA model. In this paper, we applied an uncertainty theory to create an uncertainty DEA model (UDEA), which can solve the limitation of the traditional one. This study mainly focuses on measuring efficiency of 41 container ports by applying proposed an UDEA model. The results show that among 41 container ports, only six container ports are regarded to have efficient operation through the clustering, meanwhile others have technical and scale inefficiencies. We found out that an UDEA model is better to analysis efficiency than existing DEA model.

Efficient Supplier Selection with Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo DEA (몬테카를로 DEA를 이용한 불확실성을 고려한 효율적 공급자 선정)

  • Ha, Chunghun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.83-89
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    • 2015
  • Selection of efficient supplier is a very important process as risk or uncertainty of a supply chain and its environment are increasing. Previous deterministic DEA and probabilistic DEAs are very limited to handle various types of risk and uncertainty. In this paper, I propose an improved probabilistic DEA which consists of two steps; Monte Carlo simulation and statistical decision making. The simulation results show that the proposed method is proper to distinguish supplier's performance and provide statistical decision background.

Fuzzy DEA under Uncertainty (불확실한 상황하에서의 효율성 평가를 위한 DEA)

  • Choi, Hong;Sohn, So-Young
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.36-47
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    • 2000
  • DEA has been effectively applied to various areas which need the evaluation of relative efficiency. We propose a DEA model based on fuzzy LP in order to consider uncertain synergy effects due to M&A of existing organization. We apply the suggested approach to forecasting the efficiency of merged academic departments in a university in Korea. We expect that our approach can be utilized to effectively realign existing departments.

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Extended Fuzzy DEA

  • Guo, Peijun;Tanaka, Hideo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1998.06a
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    • pp.517-521
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    • 1998
  • DEA(data envelopment analysis) is a non-parametric technique for measuring and evaluating the relative efficiencies of a set of entities with common crisp inputs and outputs. In fact, in a real evaluation problem input and output data of entities often flucturate. These fluctuating data can be represented as linguistic variables characterized by fuzzy numbers. Based on a fundamental CCR model, a fuzzy DEA model is proposed to deal with fuzzy input and output data, Furthermore, a model that extends a fuzzy DEA to a more general case is also proposed with considering the relation between DEA and RA (regression analysis) . the crisp efficiency in CCR modelis extended to an L-R fuzzy number in fuzzy DEA problems to reflect some uncertainty in real evaluation problems.

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An Evaluation of Multi-Reservoir Operation Weighting Coefficients Using Fuzzy DEA taking into account Inflow Variability (유입량의 변동성을 고려한 Fuzzy DEA 기반의 댐 군 연계운영 가중치 대안 평가)

  • Kim, Yong-Ki;Kim, Jae-Hee;Kim, Sheung-Kown
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.220-230
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    • 2011
  • The multi-reservoir operation problem for efficient utilization of water resources involves conflicting objectives, and the problem can be solved by varying weight coefficient on objective functions. Accordingly, decision makers need to choose appropriate weight coefficients balancing the trade-offs among multiple objectives. Although the appropriateness of the weight coefficients may depend on the total amount of water inflow, reservoir operating policy may not be changed to a certain degree for different hydrological conditions on inflow. Therefore, we propose to use fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to rank the weight coefficients in consideration of the inflow variation. In this approach, we generate a set of Paretooptimal solutions by applying different weight coefficients on Coordinated Multi-reservoir Operating Model. Then, we rank the Pareto-optimal solutions or the corresponding weight coefficients by using Fuzzy DEA model. With the proposed approach, we can suggest the best weight coefficients that can produce the appropriate Pareto-optimal solution considering the uncertainty of inflow, whereas the general DEA model cannot pinpoint the best weight coefficients.

Study on the Evaluation of Uncertainty for the Efficiency of 0.75[kW] Class Three Phase Induction Motor (0.75[kW]급 삼상유도전동기 효율의 불확도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Jun, Hee-Deuk;Park, Han-Seok;Kim, Dea-Kyong;Woo, Kyung-Il
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.64 no.4
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    • pp.653-659
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    • 2015
  • In the last few years, the regulations for efficiency grade of the three phase induction motor are internationally being discussed and upgraded for the protection of environment and energy saving. So the efficiency improvement and the reliable test result are essential to determine the premium grade three phase induction motor. While a study on developing the efficiency motor is active, there is little research about the guarantee for efficiency. So in this paper, the dispersion characteristic of the efficiency is studied using uncertainty theory for the three phase induction motor to improve the reliability of efficiency. The values such as input voltage, current, speed, torque were obtained by loss separation method to evaluate the uncertainty. From the result, it was known that the important loss factor could affect the uncertainty is the stray loss.

R&D Efficiency Analysis Case of the Machine Tools Industry by Using DEA (DEA를 활용한 민간 기업의 R&D 효율성 분석 사례: 공작기계 A사를 중심으로)

  • Jeon, Soo-Jin;Lee, Jin-Soo;Hong, Jae-Bum
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.27-53
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    • 2016
  • This case analyzed the efficiency of 79 R&D projects performed within one private research center in machine tools industry. DEA was used for efficiency analysis. Input variables were R&D investment expense and man-month. Output variables were achievement rate on target development period and expected net sales within 5-years. Samples are divided into product development, Prior technology development, and control technology development. The key result is that Prior technology showed the lowest efficiency because of high uncertainty. It was so difficult to determine its goals and to make its specific plans. With respect to scale, the proportions of CRS(constant returns to scale) were 34.6%, 14.3% and 38.9% for product development, prior technology, control technology respectively. As for IRS(increase returns to scale), they were 53.8%, 85.7% and 38.9% for product development, prior technology, control technology respectively. As for DRS(decrease returns to scale) they were 11.5%, 0% and 22.2% for product development, prior technology, control technology respectively. On the whole, in this case, insufficient input was more problematic than excessive input, which means the lack of investment in R&D. Prior technology can be the source of the future competitiveness of companies. To operate inefficient DMU efficiently, the optimal input should be managed and it is derived from comparison with the reference group.

Human Reliability Analysis for Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (원자력발전소 위험도 평가를 위한 인간신뢰도분석)

  • Jung, Won-Dea;Kim, Jae-Whan
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2011
  • Objective: The aim of this paper is to introduce the activities and research trends of human reliability analysis including brief summary about contents and methods of the analysis. Background: Various approaches and methods have been suggested and used to assess human reliability in field of risk assessment of nuclear power plants. However, it has noticed that there is high uncertainty in human reliability analysis which results in a major bottleneck for risk-informed activities of nuclear power plants. Method: First and second generation methods of human reliability analysis are reviewed and a few representative methods are discussed from the risk assessment perspective. The strength and weakness of each method is also examined from the viewpoint of reliability analyst as a user. In addition, new research trends in this field are briefly summarized. Results: Human reliability analysis has become an important tool to support not only risk assessment but also system design of a centralized complex system. Conclusion: Human reliability analysis should be improved by active cooperation with researchers in field of human factors. Application: The trends of human reliability analysis explained in this paper will help researchers to find interest topics to which they could contribute.

ROI Model for the Adoption of RFID Technology in SCM (SCM 차원에서 본 RFID 기술 도입에 따른 ROI 분석 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dea-Ki;Kim, Jung-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2006
  • Responsiveness to the uncertainty of SCM system shows its competitiveness. In order to secure SCM competitiveness, RFID-related projects aim to enhance both system visibility and process automation. Nowadays, we conduct RFID technology-oriented researches very actively; however, quantitative ROI analysis model from the perspective of SCM does not exist yet, which helps decide the introduction of technology. Therefore, our study suggests a ROI analysis model for the adoption of RFID technology, and we demonstrate its usefulness using the real world data that is taken from one of the government-funded RFID projects in Korea.

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A Study on Technology Forecasting of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) Using TFDEA (TFDEA를 이용한 무인항공기 기술예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Byungki;Kim, H.C.;Lee, Choonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.799-821
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    • 2016
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are essential systems for Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) operations in current battlespace. And its importance will be getting extended because of complexity and uncertainty of battlespace. In this study, we forecast the advancement of 96 UAVs during the period of 32 years from 1982 to 2014 using TFDEA. TFDEA is a quantitative technology forecasting method which is characterized as non-parametric and non-statistical mathematical programming. Inman et al. (2006) showed that TFDEA is more accurate in forecasting compared with classical econometrics (e.g. regression). This study got 4.06% point of annual technological rate of change (RoC) for UAVs by applying TFDEA. And most UAVs in the period are inefficient according to the global SOA frontiers. That is because the countries which develop UAVs are in the middle class of technological level, so more than 60% of world UAVs markets are shared by North America and Europe which are advanced countries in terms of technological maturity level. This study could give some insights for UAVs development and its advancement. And also can be used for evaluating the adequacy of Required Operational Capability (ROC) of suggested future systems and managing the progress of Research and Development (R&D).