• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty

Search Result 7,014, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Development of a Water Quality Indicator Prediction Model for the Korean Peninsula Seas using Artificial Intelligence (인공지능 기법을 활용한 한반도 해역의 수질평가지수 예측모델 개발)

  • Seong-Su Kim;Kyuhee Son;Doyoun Kim;Jang-Mu Heo;Seongeun Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
    • /
    • v.29 no.1
    • /
    • pp.24-35
    • /
    • 2023
  • Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to severe marine pollution. A Water Quality Index (WQI) has been developed to allow the effective management of marine pollution. However, the WQI suffers from problems with loss of information due to the complex calculations involved, changes in standards, calculation errors by practitioners, and statistical errors. Consequently, research on the use of artificial intelligence techniques to predict the marine and coastal WQI is being conducted both locally and internationally. In this study, six techniques (RF, XGBoost, KNN, Ext, SVM, and LR) were studied using marine environmental measurement data (2000-2020) to determine the most appropriate artificial intelligence technique to estimate the WOI of five ecoregions in the Korean seas. Our results show that the random forest method offers the best performance as compared to the other methods studied. The residual analysis of the WQI predicted score and actual score using the random forest method shows that the temporal and spatial prediction performance was exceptional for all ecoregions. In conclusion, the RF model of WQI prediction developed in this study is considered to be applicable to Korean seas with high accuracy.

Whose Science is More Scientific? The Role of Science in WTO Trade Disputes

  • Kim, Inkyoung;Brazil, Steve
    • Analyses & Alternatives
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.31-69
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study examines the role of science in resolving trade disputes. After the Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 that not only jeopardized the people of Japan, but also put the safety of an entire region at risk, the Republic of Korea (Korea) has imposed import bans as well as increased testing and certification requirements for radioactive material on Japanese food products. Japan has challenged these restrictions at the World Trade Organizations Dispute Settlement Body (DSB). This study aims to explain how international trade agreements and previous DSB rulings have dealt with different scientific viewpoints provided by confronting parties. In doing so, it will contrast the viewpoints espoused by Korean and Japanese representatives, and then analyzes the most similar case studies previously ruled on by the DSB, including the case of beef hormones and the case of genetically modified crops including biotech corn, both between the United States and the European Communities (EC). This study finds that science is largely subordinate to national interests in the case of state decision-making within the dispute settlement processes, and science has largely been relegated to a supportive role. Due to the ambiguity and lack of truly decisive decisions in the Appellate Body in science-based trade disputes, this study concludes that the Appellate Body avoids taking a firm scientific position in cases where science is still inconclusive in any capacity. Due to the panel's unwillingness to establish expert review boards as it has the power to do, instead favoring an individual-based system so that all viewpoints can be heard, it has also developed a system with its own unique weaknesses. Similar to any court of law in which each opposing party defends its own interests, each side brings whatever scientific evidence it can to defend its position, incentivizing them to disregard scientific conclusions unfavorable to their position. With so many questions that can arise, combined with the problems of evolving science, questions of risk, and social concerns in democratic society, it is no wonder that the panel views scientific information provided by the experts as secondary to the legal and procedural issues. Despite being ruled against the EC on legal issues in two previous cases, the EC essentially won both times because the panel did not address whether its science was correct or not. This failure to conclusively resolve a debate over whose science is more scientific enabled the EC to simply fix the procedural issues, while continuing to enforce trade restrictions based on their scientific evidence. Based on the analysis of the two cases of disputes, Korea may also find itself guilty of imposing an unwarranted moratorium on Japan's fish exports, only to subsequently pass new restrictions on labelling and certification requirements because Japan may have much scientific evidence at its disposal. However, Korea might be able to create enough uncertainty in the panel to force them to rule exclusively on the legal issues of the case. This will then equip Korea, like the EC in the past, with a way of working around the ruling, by changing whatever legal procedure they need to while maintaining some, if not most, of its restrictions when the panel fails to address its case on scientific grounds.

  • PDF

The Effects of Technological Capability and Domestic Marketing Capability on Export Market Orientation, and Moderating Effect of Market Turbulence: Evidence from SMEs in Gwangju and Jeonnam Province (기술역량과 국내 마케팅역량이 수출지향성에 미치는 영향과 시장변동성의 조절효과: 광주·전남지역 중소기업에 대한 실증분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jae-Eun;Kang, Ji-Won;Choi, Seo-Hyung;Choe, Soon-Kyoo
    • Korea Trade Review
    • /
    • v.42 no.4
    • /
    • pp.21-47
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study examines the effects of technological capability and domestic marketing capability of SMEs on the export market orientation, focusing on the moderating effect of market turbulence. This empirical analysis, based on surveys collected from 206 small and medium-sized firms located in Gwangju and Jeonnam provinces, yielded the following conclusions. First, technological capability of SMEs has a positive impact on export market orientation. This result not only is consistent with preceding studies but also suggests that when technological capability of SMEs is utilized as their own unique asset to reduce liability of smallness or liability of foreignness, the tendency to export might be increased. Second, domestic marketing capability of SMEs has a positive impact on export market orientation. This result suggests that as the domestic marketing capability of SMEs is used as prior knowledge reducing uncertainty to enter the overseas markets, the tendency to export might be increased. Third, as a result of examining moderating effect of market turbulence, it shows that market turbulence moderates the relationship between domestic marketing capability and export market orientation toward a negative(-) direction. That is, since market turbulence might weaken the relationship between domestic marketing capability and export market orientation, SMEs which belong to the industry considering marketing capability important need to develop strategy with consideration for market turbulence. This study provides theoretical and practical implications in that it reveals factors positively affecting export market orientation and market turbulence can be utilized as a moderator.

  • PDF

Sea Ice Drift Tracking from SAR Images and GPS Tracker (SAR 영상과 GPS 추적기를 이용한 여름철 해빙 이동 궤적 추적)

  • Jeong-Won Park;Hyun-Cheol Kim;Minji Seo;Ji-Eun Park;Jinku Park
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.39 no.3
    • /
    • pp.257-268
    • /
    • 2023
  • Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate by regulating the amount of solar energy absorbed and controlling the exchange of heat and material across the air-sea interface. Its growth, drift, and melting are monitored on a regular basis by satellite observations. However, low-resolution products with passive microwave radiometer have reduced accuracy during summer to autumn when the ice surface changes rapidly. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations are emerging as a powerful complementary, but previous researches have mainly focused on winter ice. In this study, sea ice drift tracking was evaluated and analyzed using SAR images and tracker with global positioning system (GPS) during late summer-early autumn period when ice surface condition changes a lot. The results showed that observational uncertainty increases compared to winter period, however, the correlation coefficient with GPS measurements was excellent at 0.98, and the performance of the ice tracking algorithm was proportional to the sea ice concentration with a correlation coefficient of 0.59 for ice concentrations above 50%.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.30 no.5D
    • /
    • pp.453-459
    • /
    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

Development of Task Planning System for Intelligent Excavating System Applying Heuristics (휴리스틱스(Heuristics)를 활용한 지능형 굴삭 시스템의 Task Planning System 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Soo;Kim, Jeong-Hwan;Kang, Sang-Hyeok;Seo, Jong-Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.28 no.6D
    • /
    • pp.859-869
    • /
    • 2008
  • These days, almost every industry's production line has become automatic and this phenomenon brought a lot of benefits such as increase in productivity and economical effect, assurance in industrial safety, better quality and compatibility. However, unlike industrial production line, in construction industry, automation has number of barriers like uncertainty incidents and intellectual judgment to make ability to make solution out of it. Therefore construction industry is still demanding use of construction machine through labor. Due to this matter operational labor in construction industry is aging and fading. To solve these problem, in developed nations like Europe, US or Japan are keep researching for the automation in construction and road pavement, strengthening and some other simple operations have been worked through automation but in civil engineering site, automation research is still low despite of its importance in constructional site. For automating civil engineering operation, effective operational plan have to be set by analyzing ground information acquainted. If skillful worker apply heuristics, trial & error can be reduced with increased safety and the effective work plan can be established. Hence, this research will introduce Intellectual Task Planning System for Intelligent Excavating System's effective work plan and heuristics applied in each steps.

Automation of Regression Analysis for Predicting Flatfish Production (광어 생산량 예측을 위한 회귀분석 자동화 시스템 구축)

  • Ahn, Jinhyun;Kang, Jungwoon;Kim, Mincheol;Park, So-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
    • /
    • 2021.10a
    • /
    • pp.128-130
    • /
    • 2021
  • This study aims to implement a Regression Analysis system for predicting the appropriate production of flatfish. Due to Korea's signing of FTAs with countries around the world and accelerating market opening, Korean flatfish farming businesses are experiencing many difficulties due to the specificity and uncertainty of the environment. In addition, there is a need for a solution to problems such as sluggish consumption and price drop due to the recent surge in imported seafood such as salmon and yellowtail and changes in people's dietary habits. in this study, Using the python module, xlwings, it was used to obtain for the production amount of flatfish and to predict the amount of flatfish to be produced later. was used to predict the amount of flatfish to be produced in the future. Therefore, based on the analysis results of this prediction of flatfish production, the flatfish aquaculture industry will be able to come up with a plan to achieve an appropriate production volume and control supply and demand, which will reduce unnecessary economic loss and promote new value creation based on data. In addition, through the data approach attempted in this study, various analysis techniques such as artificial neural networks and multiple regression analysis can be used in future research in various fields, which will become the foundation of basic data that can effectively analyze and utilize big data in various industries.

  • PDF

Quantitative analysis of hydrogen in thin film by scattering-recoil co-measurement technique (산란-되튐 동시 측정 방법에 의한 박막 중 수소 정량법)

  • Lee, Hwa-Ryun;Eum, Chul Hun;Choi, Han-Woo;Kim, Joonkon
    • Analytical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.19 no.5
    • /
    • pp.400-406
    • /
    • 2006
  • Hydrogen analysis by elastic recoil detection has been performed utilizing polyimide film as a reference sample of known hydrogen content assuming the soundness of ion beam current integration. However beam current integration at higher incidence angle is not reliable. Scattering yield per unit fluence by current integration which is normalized per unit path length decreases as the sample tilt angle is getting higher. Moreover because beam current integration at high tilt angle is incomplete, hydrogen evaluation is very risky by direct comparison of sequentially collected recoil spectra between reference and target sample. In this study, primary ion beam dose is determined by backscattering spectrum that is collected simultaneously with recoil spectrum instead of ion beam current integration in order to reduce uncertainty arising in the process of current integration and to enhance the reliability of quantitative analysis. Three test samples are selected $-7.6{\mu}m$ polyimide film, hydrogen implanted silicondioxide and Au deposited carbon wafer- and analyzed by two methods and compared.

Determination of bromine in 1000 ㎍/g Cl standard solution by ID-ICPMS (동위원소희석 질량분석법에 의한 1000 ㎍/g 염소 표준용액 중 브롬 불순물 분석)

  • Park, Chang Joon;Suh, Jung Kee;Song, Hyun Joo;Lee, Dong Soo
    • Analytical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.19 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2006
  • The isotope dilution method was used for the determination of Br impurity in $1000{\mu}g/g$ Cl standard solution. Since relatively pure KCl salt was used for the preparation of the Cl standard solution, the Br impurity determination suffers from both spectral and non-spectral interferences due to the presence of a large amount of K and Cl matrices. AG2-X8 anion-exchange resin was employed to separate the Br analyte from the matrices, and RF power was raised to 1500 W and nebulizer gas flow rate was lowered to 0.77 L/min to reduce background from the $ArArH^+$ molecular ions. The Br impurity in the $1000{\mu}g/g$ Cl standard solution was determined to be 43.7 ng/g with the standard addition method. The analytical result was in good agreement with 41.2 ng/g (RSD 1.6%) determined by the isotope dilution method to lower uncertainty from poor reproducibility of the anion-exchange process.

Determination of trace arsenic in seawater by flow injection-hydride generation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (연속흐름주입-수소화물생성-유도결합플라스마 질량분석장치를 이용한 바닷물표준시료중의 극미량 비소분석방법의 확립)

  • Suh, Jung-Ki
    • Analytical Science and Technology
    • /
    • v.21 no.4
    • /
    • pp.316-325
    • /
    • 2008
  • An inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) instrument equipped with flow injection-hydride generation system was used for the determination of trace arsenic in seawater sample. The accuracy in this method was verified by the analysis of certified reference materials (CRM) of seawater (CASS-4, NASS-5). The analytical results agreed with certified value within the range of uncertainty. The expanded uncertainties for CASS-4 and NASS-5 in this experiment were ranged from 6.2% to 6.8% obtained from repeated analyses of the CRMs (n=5). The detection limit of $As^+$ (m/z=74.9216) in this method was confirmed about 0.01 ug/kg. Linearity obtained from calibration curve of arsenic was excellent ($R^2=1$). The detection at $As^+$ (m/z=74.9216) and $AsO^+$ (m/z=90.9165) by using oxygen reaction gas in DRC mode was compared. Sensitivity at $AsO^+$ (m/z=90.9165) was decreased about 25-fold, but the analytical results are the same that at $As^+$ (m/z=74.9216).