• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.299-306
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• 2009

Design optimization is a method to find optimum point which minimizes the objective function while satisfying design constraints. The conventional optimization does not consider the uncertainty originated from modeling or manufacturing process, so optimum point often locates on the boundaries of constraints. Reliability based design optimization includes optimization technique and reliability analysis that calculates the reliability of the system. Reliability analysis can be classified into simulation method, fast probability integration method, and moment-based reliability method. In most generally used MPP based reliability analysis, which is one of fast probability integration method, if many MPP points exist, cost and numerical error can increase in the process of transforming constraints into standard normal distribution space. In this paper, multiplicative decomposition method is used as a reliability analysis for RBDO, and sensitivity analysis is performed to apply gradient based optimization algorithm. To illustrate whole process of RBDO mathematical and engineering examples are illustrated.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.129-147
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• 2022

The properties of soil are naturally highly variable and thus, to ensure proper safety and reliability, we need to test a large number of samples across the length and depth. In pile foundations, conducting field tests are highly expensive and the traditional empirical relations too have been proven to be poor in performance. The study proposes a state-of-art Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); and comparative analysis of metaheuristic models (ANN-PSO, ELM-PSO, ANFIS-PSO) for prediction of bearing capacity of pile foundation trained and tested on dataset of nearly 300 dynamic pile tests from the literature. A novel ensemble model of three hybrid models is constructed to combine and enhance the predictions of the individual models effectively. The authenticity of the dataset is confirmed using descriptive statistics, correlation matrix and sensitivity analysis. Ram weight and diameter of pile are found to be most influential input parameter. The comparative analysis reveals that ANFIS-PSO is the best performing model in testing phase (R² = 0.85, RMSE = 0.01) while ELM-PSO performs best in training phase (R² = 0.88, RMSE = 0.08); while the ensemble provided overall best performance based on the rank score. The performance of ANN-PSO is least satisfactory compared to the other two models. The findings were confirmed using Taylor diagram, error matrix and uncertainty analysis. Based on the results ELM-PSO and ANFIS-PSO is proposed to be used for the prediction of bearing capacity of piles and ensemble learning method of joining the outputs of individual models should be encouraged. The study possesses the potential to assist geotechnical engineers in the design phase of civil engineering projects.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.1572-1581
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• 2011

Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.109-122
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• 1992

With the uncertainty of breaching mechanism, channel roughness, and elevation-discharge relationship at the downstream dam sites, the dam break wave from the hypothetical failure of Soyanggang dam is routed by DAMBRK. Simulation results show that lower region of Seoul will be flooded in 6~8 hours which has the elevation lower than 30~20m, and most part of Chuncheon will also be flooded. The peak discharge becomes approximately 70,000 CMS at Indogyo, and 220,000~340,000 CMS at Chuncheon. Sensitivity analysis shows that the inundation feature of Seoul will hardly be affected by the failure of downstream dams.

• Corrosion Science and Technology
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.166-171
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• 2004

Recent developments in Bridge Management Systems (BMS) and in Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) of bridges, have raised the need for evaluation procedure of future condition (Deterioration) of a bridge. Predicting future deterioration is not an easy task due to limited past data to extrapolate from and also due to difficulty in measuring actual deterioration such as section loss of steel on an actual steel bridge. Also, increase in live load and reduction of resistance are random variables, thus a probabilistic approach should be adopted for determining the future deterioration. Due to difficulties in evaluation of future deterioration on steel bridges, accepting uncertainties within a reasonable error, a deterministic procedure using bridge condition rating can be a useful tool for projection of future condition of bridges to identify repair and maintenance needs. The object of this paper is to determine applicability of evaluating deterioration of steel bridge components based on Bridge condition ratings. Bridge condition ratings of bridge components show wide variation for bridges of same age and does not directly correlate well with the age of the bridge and/or deterioration of the bridge. High uncertainty can be reduced by breaking down the rating and by sensitivity analysis. From refined condition rating data, generalized deterioration profile of structures based on age can be derived. Examples are shown for sample bridges in USA. Approximately, 3,000 short to medium span steel bridges were listed in the inventory database. Results show wide variation of rating factors but by subdividing the Bridge condition ratings for various categories general deterioration profiles of steel bridges can be determined.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-70
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• 1993

A simplified safety assessment is carried out on rock-cavern type disposal of LLW using the analytical repository source term (REPS) model. For reliable prediction of the leach rates for various radionuclides, degradation of concrete structures, corrosion rate of waste container, degree of corrosion on the container surface, and the characteristics of radionuclides are considered in the REPS model. The results of preliminary assessment show that Cs-137, Ni-63, and Sr-90 are dominant. For the parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, Latin hypercube sampling technique and rank correlation technique are applied. The results of the potential public health impacts show that radiological dose to intruder in the worst case scenario will be negligible and that more attention should be given to near-field performance.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.595-612
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• 2011

Most organizations use performance appraisal system to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of their employees. In evaluating staff performance, performance appraisal usually involves awarding numerical values or linguistic labels to employees performance. These values and labels are used to represent each staff achievement by reasoning incorporated in the arithmetical or statistical methods. However, the staff performance appraisal may involve judgments which are based on imprecise data especially when a person (the superior) tries to interpret another person's (his/her subordinate) performance. Thus, the scores awarded by the appraiser are only approximations. From fuzzy logic perspective, the performance of the appraisee involves the measurement of his/her ability, competence and skills, which are actually fuzzy concepts that can be captured in fuzzy terms. Accordingly, fuzzy approach can be used to handle these imprecision and uncertainty information. Therefore, the performance appraisal system can be examined using Fuzzy Logic Approach, which is carried out in the study. The study utilized a Cascaded fuzzy inference system to generate the performance qualities of some University non-teaching staff that are based on specific performance appraisal criteria.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.1412-1422
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• 2016

Austenitic stainless steels (ASSs) are widely used for nuclear pipes as they exhibit a good combination of mechanical properties and corrosion resistance. However, high tensile residual stresses may occur in ASS welds because postweld heat treatment is not generally conducted in order to avoid sensitization, which causes a stress corrosion crack. In this study, round robin analyses on stress intensity factors (SIFs) were carried out to examine the appropriateness of structural integrity assessment methods for ASS pipe welds with two types of circumferential cracks. Typical stress profiles were generated from finite element analyses by considering residual stresses and normal operating conditions. Then, SIFs of cracked ASS pipes were determined by analytical equations represented in fitness-for-service assessment codes as well as reference finite element analyses. The discrepancies of estimated SIFs among round robin participants were confirmed due to different assessment procedures and relevant considerations, as well as the mistakes of participants. The effects of uncertainty factors on SIFs were deducted from sensitivity analyses and, based on the similarity and conservatism compared with detailed finite element analysis results, the R6 code, taking into account the applied internal pressure and combination of stress components, was recommended as the optimum procedure for SIF estimation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.297-305
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• 2018

Fuel assembly (FA) bow in pressurized water reactor (PWR) cores is considered to be a complex process with a large number of influencing mechanisms and several unknowns. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are a common way to assess the predictability of such complex phenomena. To perform such analyses, a structural model of a row of 15 FAs in the reactor core is implemented with the finite-element code ANSYS Mechanical APDL. The distribution of lateral hydraulic forces within the core row is estimated based on a two-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics model with porous media, assuming symmetric or asymmetric core inlet and outlet flow profiles. The influence of the creep rate on the bow amplitude is tested based on different creep models for guide tubes and fuel rods. Different FA initial states are considered: fresh FAs or FAs with higher burnup, which may be initially straight or exhibit an initial bow from previous cycles. The simulation results over one reactor cycle demonstrate that changes in the creep rate and the hydraulic conditions may have a considerable impact on the bow amplitudes and the bow patterns. A good knowledge of the specific creep behavior and the hydraulic conditions is therefore crucial for making reliable predictions.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
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• 2023.11a
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• pp.305-306
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• 2023

지반 침하 및 액상화 등에 따른 과도한 상대변위로 인한 매립배관 시스템의 손상을 저감시키기 위해 종종 벨로우즈 신축이음관은 사용된다. 벨로우즈 신축이음관의 성형과정에서 회선의 벽두께 감소와 같은 구조적인 불확실성이 발생할 수 있으며 특히, 벽두께 감소는 벨로우즈 신축이음관의 성능에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 매립배관 시스템의 효율적인 유지관리를 위해 회선의 벽두께 감소에 의한 벨로우즈 신축이음관의 성능평가는 필요하다. 하지만 회선의 벽두께 감소가 벨로우즈 신축이음관의 성능에 미치는 영향을 조사하는 연구는 미미하다. 따라서 본 연구는 기초적인 연구로써 고충실도 유한요소 모델을 이용하여 단조하중을 받는 벨로우즈 신축이음관의 벽두께 감소에 의한 성능을 평가하고 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 각 회선의 벽두께 감소를 20%로 적용하였을 때 최대하중은 약 3% 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며 2번 회선의 벽두께 감소가 최대하중 감소에 비교적 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.