• 융합보안논문지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.115-121
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• 2012

소프트웨어 고장 시간은 테스팅 시간과 관계없이 일정하거나. 단조증가 혹은 단조 감소 추세를 가지고 있다. 이러한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형들을 분석하기 위한 자료척도로 자료에 대한 추세 검정이 개발되어 있다. 추세 분석에는 산술평균 검정과 라플라스 추세 검정 등이 있다. 추세분석들은 전체적인 자료의 개요의 정보만 제공한다. 본 논문에서는 고장시간을 측정하다가 시간 절단이 될 경우에 미래의 고장 시간 예측에 관하여 연구 하였다. 곡선회귀모형에 이용되는 S곡선모형과 성장모형, 로지스틱을 이용하여 미래고장 시간을 예측하여 비교 하였다. 제안된 예측방법에서는 고장시간 자료를 이용하여 모형들에 대한 예측 값을 결정계수 와 평균제곱오차를 이용하여 비교 하고 효율적 모형을 선택 하였다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.731-742
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• 2001

A Gaussian smoothing algorithm obtained from a cascade of convolutions with a seven-point kernel is described. We prove that the change of local sums after applying our algorithm to sinusoidal signals is reduced to about two thirds of the change by the binomial coefficients. Hence, our seven point kernel is better than the binomial coefficients when trend curves are needed to be generated. We also prove that if our Gaussian convolution is applied to sinusoidal functions, the amplitude of higher frequencies reduces faster than the lower frequencies and hence that it is a low pass filter.

• 한국인구학
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.197-215
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• 2000

이 논문에서는 선형·비선형 성장곡선모형의 종류와 특성을 살펴보고, 이들을 비교·검토하고, 모형선호기준 통계량에 입각하여 추정결과를 비교한다. 또한 최종사용자 환경을 위한 SAS/AF로 구현한 성장곡선모형에 의한 인구예측시스템을 소개한다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.177-184
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• 2017

기술의 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인에 대한 정확한 이해는 새로운 기술을 예측하고 기술 혁신의 과정을 이해하는데 매우 유용하다. 본 연구에서는 기술의 진화 속도가 빠른 반도체 산업 32nm, 22nm, 14nm 로직 기술의 실증적 사례에 대해 기술적 성능 향상 및 경제성 지표를 고려한 정량적 추세 분석을 적용하여 기술 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인을 분석하였다. 기술적 성능 향상을 고려한 기술 확산 곡선은 S곡선의 성숙기, 쇠퇴기 형태를 보였고, 경제성 기반 기술 확산 곡선은 학습효과곡선의 형태를 보였다. 기술 확산 곡선은 2년의 수명주기를 보였고, 기술 세대별 기술적 성능향상 또는 칩 제조비용의 변화 정도가 정량적으로 관찰되었다. 또한 제품구조혁신은 경제적 발생동인보다 기술적 발생동인이 더 지배적인 영향을 미침을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구결과는 첨단기술기반의 반도체 산업에 대한 기술 확산 현상의 추세 및 발생 동인에 대한 실증연구로 시사점이 있으며, 기술 예측 또는 기술 전략 수립에 활용될 수 있으므로 실무적으로도 의의가 크다.

• 복식
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• 제50권2호
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• pp.167-182
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to examine the art nouveau fashion represented in the end of the twentieth century. The characteristics of art nouveau are naturalism, medievalism , exoticism, and decadentism. The influences of art nouveau were seen in the fashion of the late nineteenth century : S-curve silhouette and organic curve motives printed on hems. Art nouveau has reappeared in modern fashion trends such as romanticism , decadence, ecology, ethno, and fusion. To sum up, art nouveau fashion at the end of the twentieth century is classified into four shapes. First, art nouveau appears in naturalism. Influenced by the arts and crafts movements and naturalistic trend, it has reappeared at the end of the twentieth century in themes like 'art & craft'. This expression technique is to objectively nature and to represented art nouveau textiles. Second, S-curve silhouette appeared at the end of nineteenth century's fashion with the art nouveau influenced rejection of the bustle style. At the end of the twentieth century, the design , emphasizing the hip, is represented in fashion collections as a phenomenon of romanticism . Especially the art nouveau silhouette of the end of the twentieth century does not represent S-curve silhouette. But , it emphasizes the hip only. Third, Art nouveau exoticism by symbolism is influenced by Chinese and Celtic art, the Middle Ages, and the exoticism that appeared in fashion at the end of the nineteenth century : harem style, kimono style, and turbans. Exoticism at the end of the twentieth century is expressed by optical flower prints and successive floral print arrangements as seen in the themes of ethno and fusion. Fourth, one of the characteristics of art nouveau, decadence is influenced by the pre-raphaelite brotherhood. This is expressed in the images of vampires, and symbolism expressing grotesque insect motives and decadent successive curves. At the end of the twentieth century decadence is represented in fashion ; grotesque insect motives, tatto looks of organic curve motives celtic hair style, see-through fashion, grotesque make-up . Besides hair style techniques, decadent expressions applying art nouveau paintings also appeared. Finally , art nouveau fashion represented as a fashion trend at the turning point to the new millennium is one of great significance as an organic, an environment-intimate and continuance-possible design in a future.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권8호
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• pp.2844-2853
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• 2023

A sophisticated Bayesian multilevel model for estimating group bias was developed to improve the utility of the ASTM E900-15 embrittlement trend curve (ETC) to assess the conditions of nuclear power plants (NPPs). For multilevel model development, the Baseline 22 surveillance dataset was basically classified into groups based on the NPP name, product form, and notch orientation. By including the notch direction in the grouping criteria, the developed model could account for TTS differences among NPP groups with different notch orientations, which have not been considered in previous ETCs. The parameters of the multilevel model and biases of the NPP groups were calculated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. As the number of data points within a group increased, the group bias approached the mean residual, resulting in reduced credible intervals of the mean, and vice versa. Even when the number of surveillance test data points was less than three, the multilevel model could estimate appropriate biases without overfitting. The model also allowed for a quantitative estimate of the changes in the bias and prediction interval that occurred as a result of adding more surveillance test data. The biases estimated through the multilevel model significantly improved the performance of E900-15.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.27-41
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• 1981

The purpose of this study is to extract and classify the general patterns on scientific and technological development by quantitative approaches. Indicators used for this pattern classification amounted to a total of 39. what is more, these indicators were set up with the recent data for the first half of the 1970's mainly, and 141 nations were selected as the sample of the analysis. 7 aspects which prescribe the scentific and technological activities were established, and so 3 patterns of the S & T development were extrected by means of a "two-dimensional cross section" among them. (1) A pattern showing the trend of the exponential curve from the point over a certain level (in this study, it is defined as "Threshold Valued"). (2) A pattern in which elasticity of the exponential curve is gradually reduced from the point over the threshold value. (3) A pattern not showing any trend, but forming a large variance.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.22-32
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• 2007

This paper describes a study of a helicopter database for the sizing stage of a preliminary design process. The database includes specifications and performance parameters for more than 150 conventional single rotor helicopters currently in market. Design parameters, including configuration and weight parameters, have been analyzed and trend curve equations(regression equations) are derived using the regression analysis method. Finally, the applicability of this research result was verified whether the method is reliable for being adopted as a useful design tool in the early stage of a helicopter design process.

• E2M - 전기 전자와 첨단 소재
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.107-116
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• 1994

In the manufacturing of VLSI circuits, variations of device characteristics due to the slight differences in process parameters drastically aggravate the performances of fabricated devices. Therefore, it is very important to establish optimal process conditions in order to minimize deviations of device characteristics. In this paper, we used one-dimensional process simulator, SUPREM-II, and two dimensional device simulator, MINIMOS 4.0 in order to extract optimal process parameter which can minimize changes of the device characteristics caused by process parameter variation in the case of short channel nMOSFET and pMOSFET device. From this simulation, we have derived the dependence relations between process parameters and device characteristics. Here, we have suggested a method to extract process parameters from design trend curve(DTC) obtained by these dependence relations. And we have discussed short channel effects and device limitations by scaling down MOSFET dimensions.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제34권10호
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• pp.389-398
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• 1985

Recently maximum power demand of our country has become to be under the great in fluence of electric cooling and air conditioning demand which are sensitive to weather conditions. This paper presents the technique and algorithm to forecast the long-term maximum power demand considering the characteristics of electric power and weather variable. By introducing a weather load model for forecasting long-term maximum power demand with the recent statistic data of power demand, annual maximum power demand is separated into two parts such as the base load component, affected little by weather, and the weather sensitive load component by means of multi-regression analysis method. And we derive the growth trend regression equations of above two components and their individual coefficients, the maximum power demand of each forecasting year can be forecasted with the sum of above two components. In this case we use the coincident dry bulb temperature as the weather variable at the occurence of one-day maximum power demand. As the growth trend regression equation we choose an exponential trend curve for the base load component, and real quadratic curve for the weather sensitive load component. The validity of the forecasting technique and algorithm proposed in this paper is proved by the case study for the present Korean power system.