• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.169-175
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• 2004

This paper develops a dynamic travel time prediction model for ATIS in a national highway. While there have been many research on travel time prediction, none of them is for national highway in Korea. The study uses AVI data installed on the national highway No.1 with 10km interval for travel time prediction model, and probe vehicle data for evaluating the model. The study area has many access points, so there are many outlying observations in the raw AVI data. Therefore, this study uses the algorithm proposed by the author for removing the outliers, and then Kalman filtering algorithm is applied for the travel time prediction. The prediction model is performed for 5, 10, 15 and 30 minute-aggregating interval and the results are $0.061{\sim}0.066$ for 5, 10 and 15 interval and 0.078 for 30 minute one with a little low performance as MAREs.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.209-221
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• 2009

Travel time estimation under given traffic conditions is important for providing drivers with travel time prediction information. But the present expressway travel time estimation process cannot calculate a reliable travel time. The objective of this study is to estimate the path travel time spent in a through lane between origin tollgates and destination tollgates on an expressway as a prerequisite result to offer reliable prediction information. Useful and abundant toll collection system (TCS) data were used. When estimating the path travel time, the path travel time is estimated combining the link travel time obtained through a preprocessing process. In the case of a lack of TCS data, the TCS travel time for previous intervals is referenced using the linear interpolation method after analyzing the increase pattern for the travel time. When the TCS data are absent over a long-term period, the dynamic travel time using the VDS time space diagram is estimated. The travel time estimated by the model proposed can be validated statistically when compared to the travel time obtained from vehicles traveling the path directly. The results show that the proposed model can be utilized for estimating a reliable travel time for a long-distance path in which there are a variaty of travel times from the same departure time, the intervals are large and the change in the representative travel time is irregular for a short period.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.1-16
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• 2020

With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution era, there has been a growing interest in deep learning using big data, and studies using deep learning have been actively conducted in various fields. In the transportation sector, there are many advantages to using deep learning in research as much as using deep traffic big data. In this study, a short -term travel speed prediction model using LSTM, a deep learning technique, was constructed to predict the travel speed. The LSTM model suitable for time series prediction was selected considering that the travel speed data, which is used for prediction, is time series data. In order to predict the travel speed more precisely, we constructed a model that reflects both temporal and spatial effects. The model is a short-term prediction model that predicts after one hour. For the analysis data, the 5minute travel speed collected from the Seoul Transportation Information Center was used, and the analysis section was selected as a part of Gangnam where traffic was congested.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.1873-1879
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• 2014

There are various methodologies to forecast the travel time using real-time data but the K-nearest neighborhood (KNN) method in general is regarded as the most one in forecasting when there are enough historical data. The objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of KNN method. In this study, real-time and historical data of toll collection system (TCS) traffic flow and the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) link travel time, and the historical path travel time data are used as input data for KNN approach. The proposed method investigates the path travel time which is the nearest to TCS traffic flow and DSRC link travel time from real-time and historical data, then it calculates the predicted path travel time using weight average method. The results show that accuracy increased when weighted value of DSRC link travel time increases. Moreover the trend of forecasted and real travel times are similar. In addition, the error in forecasted travel time could be further reduced when more historical data could be available in the future database.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.131-138
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• 2012

PURPOSES : Two-lane highways have one lane in each direction, and lane changing and passing maneuvers take place in the opposing lane depending on the availability of passing sight distance. 2001 Korea Highway Capacity Manual (KHCM) is classified into two classes of two-lane highways (Type I, II), and average travel speed and time-delayed rate are used as measures of effectiveness (MOEs). However, since existing two-lane highways have both uninterrupted and interrupted traffic flow-system elements, a variety of free-flow speeds exhibits in two-lane highways. In addition, it is necessary to check if the linear-relationship between volumes and time-delayed rate is appropriate. Then, this study is to reestablish the relationship between average travel speed, time-delayed rate, and flow. METHODS : TWOPAS model was selected to conduct this study, and the free-flow speeds of passenger cars and the percentage of following vehicles observed in two-lane highways were applied to the model as the input. The revised relationships were developed from the computer simulation. RESULTS : In the revised average travel speed vs. flow relationship, the free-flow speed of 90km/h and 70km/h were added. It shows that the relationship between time delayed-rate and flow appeared to be appropriate with the log-function form and that there was no difference in time-delayed rate between the free flow speeds. In addition to revise the relationships, the speed prediction model and the time-delayed rate prediction model were also developed. CONCLUSIONS : The revised relationships between average travel speed, time-delayed rate, and flow would be useful in estimating the Level of Service(LOS) of a two-lane highway.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.342-347
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• 2003

It is essential to develop an algorithm for the estimate of link travel velocity and for the supply and control of travel information in the context of intelligent transportation information system. The paper proposes the fuzzy logic based prediction of link travel velocity. Three factors such as time, date and velocity are considered as major components to represent the travel situation. In the fuzzy modeling, those factors were expressed by fuzzy membership functions. We acquire position／velocity data through GPS antenna with PDA embedded probe vehicles. The link travel velocity is calculated using refined GPS data and the prediction results are compared with actual data for its accuracy.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.473-484
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• 2024

We introduce a machine learning-based web application to help travel agents plan a package tour schedule. K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classification predicts the optimal tourists' dwelling time based on a variety of information to automatically generate a convenient tour schedule. A database collected in collaboration with an established travel agency is fed into the KNN algorithm implemented in the Python language, and the predicted dwelling times are sent to the web application via a RESTful application programming interface provided by the Flask framework. The web application displays a page in which the agents can configure the initial data and predict the optimal dwelling time and automatically update the tour schedule. After conducting a performance evaluation by simulating a scenario on a computer running the Windows operating system, the average response time was 1.762 s, and the prediction consistency was 100% over 100 iterations.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.56-73
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• 2019

Probe-based systems have been gaining popularity in advanced traveler information systems. However, the high possibility of providing inaccurate travel-time information due to the inherent time-lag phenomenon is still an important issue to be resolved. To mitigate the time-lag problem, different prediction techniques have been applied, but the techniques are generally regarded as less effective for travel times with high variability. For this reason, current 5-min aggregated data have been commonly used for real-time travel-time provision on highways with high travel-time fluctuation. However, the 5-min aggregation interval itself can further increase the time-lags in the real-time travel-time information equivalent to 5 minutes. In this study, a new scheme that uses both individual probe and 5-min aggregated travel times is suggested to provide reliable real-time travel-time information. The scheme utilizes individual probe data under congested conditions and 5-min aggregated data under uncongested conditions, respectively. As a result of an evaluation with field data, the proposed scheme showed the best performance, with a maximum reduction in travel-time error of 18%.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.307-314
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• 2005

In this paper, we propose a predictive system for the avoidance of the moving obstacle. In the dynamic environment, robots should travel to the target point without collision with the moving obstacle. For this, we need the prediction of the position and velocity of the moving obstacle. So, we use the Kalman filer algorithm for the prediction. And for the application of the Kalman filter algorithm about the real time travel, we obtain the position of the obstacle which has the future time using Fuzzy system. Through the computer simulation studies, we show the effectiveness of the proposed navigational algorithm for autonomous mobile robots.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.83-95
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• 2003

This study aims to develop travel time estimation and prediction models on the freeway using measurements from vehicle detectors. In this study, we established a travel time estimation model using traffic volume which is a principle factor of traffic flow changes by reviewing existing travel time estimation techniques. As a result of goodness of fit test. in the normal traffic condition over 70km/h, RMSEP(Root Mean Square Error Proportion) from travel speed is lower than the proposed model, but the proposed model produce more reliable travel times than the other one in the congestion. Therefore in cases of congestion the model uses the method of calculating the delay time from excess link volumes from the in- and outflow and the vehicle speeds from detectors in the traffic situation at a speed of over 70km/h. We also conducted short term prediction of Kalman Filtering to forecast traffic condition and more accurate travel times using statistical model The results of evaluation showed that the lag time occurred between predicted travel time and estimated travel time but the RMSEP values of predicted travel time to observations are as 1ow as that of estimation.