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Development of a Freeway Travel Time Estimating and Forecasting Model using Traffic Volume  

오세창 (아주대학교 환경건설교통공학부)
김명하 (한국도로공사 교통정보센터)
백용현 (아주대학교)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.21, no.5, 2003 , pp. 83-95 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study aims to develop travel time estimation and prediction models on the freeway using measurements from vehicle detectors. In this study, we established a travel time estimation model using traffic volume which is a principle factor of traffic flow changes by reviewing existing travel time estimation techniques. As a result of goodness of fit test. in the normal traffic condition over 70km/h, RMSEP(Root Mean Square Error Proportion) from travel speed is lower than the proposed model, but the proposed model produce more reliable travel times than the other one in the congestion. Therefore in cases of congestion the model uses the method of calculating the delay time from excess link volumes from the in- and outflow and the vehicle speeds from detectors in the traffic situation at a speed of over 70km/h. We also conducted short term prediction of Kalman Filtering to forecast traffic condition and more accurate travel times using statistical model The results of evaluation showed that the lag time occurred between predicted travel time and estimated travel time but the RMSEP values of predicted travel time to observations are as 1ow as that of estimation.
Keywords
고속도로 구간 통행시간;교통량;통행속도;추정;예측;칼만필터;
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