Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.6.1873

Expressway Travel Time Prediction Using K-Nearest Neighborhood  

Shin, Kangwon (Kyungsung University)
Shim, Sangwoo (Ajou University)
Choi, Keechoo (Ajou University)
Kim, Soohee (Expressway & Transportation Research Institute)
Publication Information
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research / v.34, no.6, 2014 , pp. 1873-1879 More about this Journal
Abstract
There are various methodologies to forecast the travel time using real-time data but the K-nearest neighborhood (KNN) method in general is regarded as the most one in forecasting when there are enough historical data. The objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of KNN method. In this study, real-time and historical data of toll collection system (TCS) traffic flow and the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) link travel time, and the historical path travel time data are used as input data for KNN approach. The proposed method investigates the path travel time which is the nearest to TCS traffic flow and DSRC link travel time from real-time and historical data, then it calculates the predicted path travel time using weight average method. The results show that accuracy increased when weighted value of DSRC link travel time increases. Moreover the trend of forecasted and real travel times are similar. In addition, the error in forecasted travel time could be further reduced when more historical data could be available in the future database.
Keywords
K-Nearest neighborhood; TCS traffic flow; DSRC link travel time; Weight average method; Path travel time prediction;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 8  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Lam, W. H. K., Tang, Y. F., Chan, K. S. and Tam, M. L. (2006). "Short-term hourly traffic forecasts using Hong Kong annual traffic census." Transp., Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 291-310.   DOI
2 Lee, C., Park, J. and Kho, S. (2002). "Prediction of path travel time using kalman filter." J. of the Korean Soc. Civil Eng., Vol. 22, No. 5-D, pp. 871-880 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
3 Lee, E. and Kim, J. (2002). "Development of a freeway travel time forecasting model for long distance section with due regard to time-lag." J. Korean Soc. Transp., Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 51-61 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
4 Lee, Y. (2009). "Freeway travel time forecasting using artificial neural networks with cluster method." 12th Int. Conf. on Inf. Fusion, Seattle, USA, pp. 1331-1338.
5 Lee, Y., Kim, S. and Youn, J. (2005). "Multi-step ahead link travel time prediction using data fusion." J. Korean Soc. Transp., Vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 71-79 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
6 Lim, S. and Lee, C. (2011), "Data fusion algorithm improves travel time predictions." IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 302-309.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Lim, S., Lee, H., Park, S. and Heo, T. (2013). "A study of travel time prediction using k-nearest neighborhood method." The Korean J. of Applied Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 5, pp. 835-845 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
8 Mehmet, Y. and Nikolas, G. (2013). "Experienced travel time prediction for congested freeways." Transp. Res. Part B, Vol. 53, pp. 45-63.   DOI   ScienceOn
9 Nigovski, D., Nishiuma, N., Goto, Y. and Kumazawa, H. (2005). "Univariate short-term prediction of road travel time." Proc. of the 8th IEEE Conf. on Intell. Transp. Syst., Vienna, Austria, pp. 1074-1079.
10 Oh, S., Kim, M. and Baek, Y. (2003). "Development of a freeway travel time estimating and forecasting model using traffic volume." J. of Korean Soc. Transp., Vol. 21, No. 5, pp. 83-95 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
11 Park, S., Jeong, Y. and Kim, C. (2006). "Development and evaluation of real-time travel time forecasting model: Nonparametric Regression Analysis for the Seoul Transit System." J. of Korean Soc. Transp., Vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 109-120 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
12 Rice, J. and Zwet, V. E. (2004). "A simple and effective method for predicting travel times on freeways." IEEE trans. on Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 200-207.   DOI   ScienceOn
13 Smith, B. and Demetsky, M. (1997). "Traffic flow forecasting: Comparison of Modeling Approaches." J. of Transp. Eng., Vol. 123, No. 4, pp. 261-266.   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Smith, B., Williams, B. and Oswald, K. (2002). "Comparison of parametric and non parametric models for traffic flow forecasting." Transp. Res. Part C, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 303-321.
15 Wei, C. H. and Lee, Y. (2007). "Development of freeway travel time forecasting models by integrating different sources of traffic data." IEEE Trans. Veh. Technol., Vol. 56, No. 6II, pp. 3682-3694.   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Xie, C., Cheu, R. and Lee, D. (2004). "Improving arterial link travel time estimation by data fusion." Proc. of 84th TRB Annual Meeting, Washington D.C., USA.
17 You, J. and Kim, T. (2000). "Development and evaluation of a hybrid travel time forecasting model." Transp. Res. Part C, Vol. 8, No. 1-6, pp. 231-256.
18 Yu, J. (2008). "Real-time travel time estimation model using pointbased and link-based data." J. of Korean Soc. Road Eng., Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 155-164 (in Korean).
19 Zhang, X. and Rice, J. (2003). "Short-term travel time prediction." Transp. Res. Part C, Vol. 11, No. 3-4, pp. 187-210.
20 Ban, X. J., Li, Y., Skabardonis, A. and Margulici, J. D. (2010). "Performance evaluation of travel-time estimation methods for real-time traffic applications." J. of Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 54-67.   DOI   ScienceOn
21 Kang, J. and Namkoong, S. (2002). "Development of the freeway operating time prediction model using toll collection system data." J. of Korean Soc. Transp., Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 151-162 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을
22 Chen, X., Gong, H. and Wang, J. (2012). "BRT vehicle travel time prediction based on SVM and kalman filter." J. of Transp. Syst. Eng. and Inf. Technol., Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 29-34.
23 Innamaa, S. (2005). "Short-term prediction of travel time using neural networks on an interurban highway." Transp., Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 649-669.   DOI
24 Jeong, R. and Rilett, L. R. (2004). "Bus arrival time prediction using artificial neural network model." Proc. of the 7th Int. IEEE Conf. on Intell. Transp. Syst., Washington D.C., USA, pp. 988-993.
25 Kim, H. and Jang, K. (2013). "Short-term prediction of travel time using DSRC on highway." J. of the Korean Soc. Civil Eng., Vol. 33, No. 6, pp. 2465-2471 (in Korean).   과학기술학회마을   DOI