• Title/Summary/Keyword: Transport Demand Management

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong;Yi, Su-Ho;Namkung, Baek-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.1572-1581
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment has been active on transport infrastructure. But investment of transport infrastructure has more risks than others due to overforecast of transport demand for ensuring project validity, and cost uncertainty arising from financial crisis, commodity prices and so on. In the case of Incheon international airport express, after 2 years and 6 months, Incheon international airport express is opened, Korail take over equity stake in private investor due to the problems of MRG(Minimum Revenue Guarantee) be contracted with private investor. Not only that, in other case of Yong-in light rail, it is ongoing for legal disputes between Yong-in local government and private investor on account of opening delaying. On current Investment Assessment System of Transport Infrastructure, Risk Management system on investment of transport infrastructure is inadequate because Sensitivity Analysis in economic efficiency have been performed on the simple method which only changes benefits, expense and social discount rate. For this reason, this study analyze risks for investment of transport infrastructure demand forecast, and rise to the management practice for every particular item.

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Application of Risk Management to Forecasting Transportation Demand by Delphi Technique (Delphi기법을 통한 교통수요예측 Risk Management 적용 방안)

  • Chung, Sung-Bong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2011
  • Since 'The Act on Private Investment of The Infrastructure' was established in 1994, private investment as well as government's investment in transport infrastructure has been active. However investment in transport infrastructure has more risks than others' due to uncertainty both in traffic volume and in construction cost. In the current appraisal procedure of deciding transportation infrastructure investment, instead of risk management, the sensitivity analysis considering only the changes of benefit, cost and social discount rate which are main factor affecting economic feasibility is carried out. Therefore the uncertainty of various factors affecting demand, cost and benefit are not considered in feasibility study. In this study the problems in current investment appraisal system were reviewed. Using Delphi technique the major factors which have high uncertainty in feasibility study were surveyed and then improvement plan was suggested in the respective of classic 4 step demand forecasting method. The range estimation technique was also mentioned to deal with the uncertainty of the future.

A Study on the Bus Operation and the Strategy for Bus Transport Improvement (버스운행관리 및 수송전략에 관한 연구)

  • 배기목
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 1999.10a
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 1999
  • The bus as a feeder trip should supply equality service to the whole community. But in spite of the change of latent demand to the bus by the variety of regional structural change, the existing bus route can not supply effective feeder service. For cope with the latent demand to the bus, this study establish a concept that frame of the bus operation and management. This study tackled to evidence this fact by analyzing the bus transport problems in terms of the urban growth, and following issues were discussed: 1) the strategy for improvement of bus operation, 2) the land use control which is appropriate for the public transport network, 3) the economical range to justify the bus operation, 4) the allowance for the private transport mode. On the second part of this study, the difference on the bus operation was compared to determine the range within which the bus operation can be justified. This would provide the direction to improve the management for bus operation and fundamental information to develop the bus operation system.

The Trend of the Standardization of the Urban Guided Transport Management System in Europe (유럽 도시철도 신호시스템의 표준화 동향)

  • Lee Young-Hoon;Kim Jong-Ki
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2004.06a
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    • pp.1266-1273
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    • 2004
  • Urban railway signaling system is for train operation with safety in the urban crowded area, that has been increasing the demand of use of advanced train control systems with safe. European Commission is supporting the UGTMS(Urban Guided Transport Management System) project for the research and development. The main objective of UGTMS is to provide the European urban guided transport sector (comprising metro, tram and light rail systems) with a common Management System. A key topic is the extent to which the specifications for the successful ERTMS(European Rail Transport Management System) can be adapted to UGTMS needs. Beyond this, it is necessary to define the relevant functional and system requirements for all types of urban guided transport management systems in order to improve interoperability and intermodality. Also to be explored are the prospects for open system standards. In this article, we look into the trend of the standardization through the UGTMS project in Europe and consider any benefit to the project of the standardization for the urban railway signaling system in Korea.

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Energy Technology Perspective of Transportation for CO2 Reduction Based on ETP 2014 (ETP 2014에 기초한 이산화탄소 저감을 위한 수송 부문 에너지 기술 전망)

  • Bae, Choongsik;Park, Hyunwook
    • 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2014.11a
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    • pp.277-280
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    • 2014
  • Global energy demand has continued to rise due to population increase and economic development. National governments and international bodies try to seek the ways to reduce the demand growth. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) have provided the current status of energy system, technology developments and external events that have changed ETP scenario since 2006. The status and prospects for key energy technologies of transport sector are presented. Technology portfolio for the transport sector should be needed to meet very low CO2 targets. The portfolio includes improved fuel economy of current internal combustion engine vehicles, advanced technologies such as electric and fuel-cell vehicles, advanced biofuels and demand-side management.

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A Development of Evaluation Index for Bus Demand-Elastic Schedule Management (수요탄력적 버스배차관리를 위한 평가지표 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee, Ho-Sang;Chang, Hyun-Ho;Kim, Young-Chan;Hwang, Kyong-Soo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 2009
  • Although enormous data have been collected in major cities (Korea) by APTS(Advanced Public Transit Systems), most of studies related to bus schedule management evaluation have confined to headway adherence and on-time performance. Therefore, bus operation management have been very lack of using APTS data. This study uses coefficient of correlation to evaluate bus company's schedule management level. However, direct application of coefficient of correlation has inequitable problem because of many limitation(number of vehicle, headway, etc). and so variable calibration method was developed and applied to cope with these problems. Thus, demand-elastic management evaluation index was developed. For verifying the equity of developed index, it is applied to Seoul bus routes. It is expected for the developed index to contribute into the demand-elastic management of bus schedule.

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Impact Assessment of an Autonomous Demand Responsive Bus in a Microscopic Traffic Simulation (미시적 교통 시뮬레이션을 활용한 실시간 수요대응형 자율주행 버스 영향 평가)

  • Sang ung Park;Joo young Kim
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.70-86
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    • 2022
  • An autonomous demand-responsive bus with mobility-on-demand service is an innovative transport compensating for the disadvantages of an autonomous bus and a demand-responsive bus with mobility-on-demand service. However, less attention has been paid to the quantitative impact assessment of the autonomous demand-responsive bus due to the technological complexity of the autonomous demand-responsive bus. This study simulates autonomous demand-responsive bus trips by reinforcement learning on a microscopic traffic simulation to quantify the impact of the autonomous demand-responsive bus. The Chungju campus of the Korea National University of Transportation is selected as a testbed. Simulation results show that the introduction of the autonomous demand-responsive bus can reduce the wait time of passengers, average control delay, and increase the traffic speed compared to the results with fixed route bus service. This study contributes to the quantitative evaluation of the autonomous demand-responsive bus.

Development of a Model for Dynamic Station Assignmentto Optimize Demand Responsive Transit Operation (수요대응형 모빌리티 최적 운영을 위한 동적정류장 배정 모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jinju;Bang, Soohyuk
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.17-34
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    • 2022
  • This paper develops a model for dynamic station assignment to optimize the Demand Responsive Transit (DRT) operation. In the process of optimization, we use the bus travel time as a variable for DRT management. In addition, walking time, waiting time, and delay due to detour to take other passengers (detour time) are added as optimization variables and entered for each DRT passenger. Based on a network around Anaheim, California, reserved origins and destinations of passengers are assigned to each demand responsive bus, using K-means clustering. We create a model for selecting the dynamic station and bus route and use Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-III to analyze seven scenarios composed combination of the variables. The result of the study concluded that if the DRT operation is optimized for the DRT management, then the bus travel time and waiting time should be considered in the optimization. Moreover, it was concluded that the bus travel time, walking time, and detour time are required for the passenger.

A Study on Transportation Optimization and Efficient Production Method of Raw Materials for Pellet for Construction of Supply Chain Management

  • Choi, Sang Hyun;Lee, Jae Hwan;Bakyt, Bekzhanov;Woo, Jong Choon
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 2016
  • This study designed a model of the efficient production schemes and raw materials transportation optimization of current South Korean's simple and monolithic distribution system of wood to build a SCM (supply chain management) as a basic level to establish a distribution of future by pellet production of raw materials costs and reduce transport costs, and specifically to forest of pallet to contribute to revitalizing the market. The result of each transportation costs after building the best transportation network from raw material supply area to demand area applying transport law was 964,600 thousands Won from 6 supply areas to 7 demand areas. And the result of each model's analysis to get the pellet's efficient production through production cost reduction showed that it reduced from 325,701 Won/t to 240,106 Won/t, results of existing efficient pellet for the production model 8,233 tons over 20,000 tons annual production capacity from the size of the expanded production capacity when the expansion. However, when the production size expanded to 50,000 Tons of the production, the effect was very small even though production cost decreased.

Integrated Traffic Management Strategy on Expressways Using Mainline Metering and Ramp Metering (본선미터링과 램프미터링을 이용한 고속도로 통합교통관리 전략)

  • Jeong, Youngje;Kim, Youngchan;Lee, Seungjun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2013
  • This research proposed integrated expressway traffic management strategy using ramp metering and toll mainline metering. This research suggested a traffic signal optimization model for integrated operation of ramp and mainline metering based on Demand-Capacity Model that is used to optimize allowable input volume for ramp metering in FREQ model. The objective function of this model is sectional throughput volume maximization, and this model can calculate optimal signal timings for mainline metering and ramp metering. This study conducted an effectiveness analysis of integrated metering strategy using PARAMICS and its API. It targeted Seoul's Outer Ring Expressway between Gimpo and Siheung toll gate. As a simulation result, integrated operation of mainline and ramp metering provided more smooth traffic flow, and throughput volume of mainline increased to 14% in congested section. In addition, a queue of 400 meter was formed at metering point of toll gate. This research checked that integrated traffic management strategy facilitates more efficient traffic operation of mainline and ramp from diffused traffic congestion.