• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Estimation

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Comparative Analysis of Estimation of Demand for Urban Railway Stations and Forecast of Transportation Facilities Size Prediction (도시철도역 이용수요 추정 및 이동편의시설 규모 예측 비교 분석)

  • Kim, Hwang Bae;Lee, Sang Hwa;Bae, Choon Bong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.877-886
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    • 2019
  • The size of the subway entrance should be calculated according to the user's demand, but Korea has the same size for each entrance by applying a uniform value. Recently, the installation of mobile convenience facilities such as escalators, elevators, etc. is mandated by the traffic weakness promotion law, but it is inconvenient to use the existing stations because it is mainly arranged in the place where it can be installed regardless of user demand. This study aims to establish a model for estimating the size of mobile convenience facilities by predicting the use demand of each station entrance so that the location and size of mobile facilities can be reflected in the design or construction of the station. To this end, a multiple regression model was established to forecast daily demand by utilizing the demand for getting on and off by station and the building association area for each purpose around the railway station. The actual data of Dongdaemun and Jonggak Stations were used to verify the estimated model. In addition, the escalator installation scale was compared / analyzed by doorway using domestic and overseas escalator equations. As a result, it was more accurate to estimate the usage demand for a single station. Also, Jonggak Station has an up and down escalator installed at exit 1, but it was analyzed that it is appropriate to install at exit 4. This study is an advanced form of the essay model for estimating the users of the entrance and exit users of urban railway stations published in 2018. In addition, it seems to be the basis of the current escalator installation criteria.

Study on Queue Length Estimation using GPS Trajectory Data (GPS 데이터를 이용한 대기행렬길이 산출에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Ju;Hwang, Jae-Seong;Lee, Choul-Ki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2016
  • Existing real-time signal control system was brought up typical problems which are supersaturated condition, point detection system and loop detection system. For that reason, the next generation signal control system of advanced form is required. Following thesis aimed at calculating queue length for the next generation signal control system to utilize basic parameter of signal control in crossing queue instead of the volume of real-time through traffic. Overflow saturated condition which was appeared as limit of existing system was focused to set-up range. Real-time location information of individual vehicle which is collected by GPS data. It converted into the coordinate to apply shock wave model with an linear equation that is extracted by regression model applied by a least square. Through the calculated queue length and link length by contrast, If queue length exceed the link, queue of downstream intersection is included as queue length that upstream queue vehicle is judeged as affecting downstream intersection. In result of operating correlation analysis among link travel time to judge confidence of extracted queue length, Both of links were shown over 0.9 values. It is appeared that both of links are highly correlated. Following research is significant using real-time data to calculate queue length and contributing to signal control system.

A study on Property and CO2 Emission Factor of Domestic Transportation Fuel (국내 수송용 연료의 물성 및 CO2 배출계수 산정연구)

  • Kang, Hyungkyu;Doe, Jinwoo;Ha, Jonghan;Na, Byungki
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.72-81
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    • 2014
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) suggested the three methodology, Tier 1/2/3, considering with the accuracy and difficulty of greenhouse gas emission statistics according to the report determined as the international criterion. In Korea, the existing inventory building was made by the Top-down approach applying with the emission factors for transportation in the entire energy consumption, the emission factors were investigated under the domestic traffic situation which did not reflect by the continuing increase of vehicle and the change of road section. From the suggestion of IPCC, which it is estimated that the emission estimation of $CO_2$ in greenhouse gas emission could be calculated more accurate by the carbon content according to the fuel, the establishment of measures to respond to climate change from the latest greenhouse gas emissions statistics will be able to improve the accuracy of national statistics using monthly or seasonally the analysis of carbon content about the transportation fuels.

Analysis of Moment Effect of Bridge Design Live Load KL-510 by Statistical Analysis of WIM Data of Expressway (고속도로 WIM 데이터의 통계분석을 통한 교량 설계활하중 KL-510의 모멘트 효과 분석)

  • Paik, Inyeol;Jeong, Kilhwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.467-477
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    • 2017
  • The live load effect of KL-510 of the current Korean bridge design code is examined by comparing with that of the multiple trucks of which the weights are statistically estimated from measured traffic data as well as with those of the related live load models. The truck weight data measured on the expressway before and after overweight enforcement are used to obtain the truck weights following the same procedures in deciding the live load model of the design codes and the results are compared with the load effect of KL-510. KL-510 yields a very uniform loading effect compared with the multiple truck effects when the weights are estimated from the data which contains some of the heavy trucks over the operational weight limit. KL-510 yields consistent results with the live load of AASHTO LRFD and shows less variation than the past load model DB-24 over the span lengths considered in this study. As a result of this research, the actual truck combinations equivalent to the notional KL-510 load model are constructed and it can be applied to the evaluation of the existing bridge and the calibration of the load factor of the permit vehicle.

Dynamic OD Estimation with Hybrid Discrete Choice of Traveler Behavior in Transportation Network (복합 통행행태모형을 이용한 동적 기.종점 통행량 추정)

  • Kim, Chae-Man;Jo, Jung-Rae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.6 s.92
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    • pp.89-102
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic OD estimating model to overcome the limitation of depicting teal situations in dynamic simulation models based on static OD trip. To estimate dynamic OD matrix we used the hybrid discrete choice model(called the 'Demand Simulation Model'), which combines travel departure time with travel mode and travel path. Using this Demand Simulation Model, we deduced that the traveler chooses the departure time and mode simultaneously, and then choose his/her travel path over the given situation In this paper. we developed a hybrid simulation model by joining a demand simulation model and the supply simulation model (called LiCROSIM-P) which was Previously developed. We simulated the hybrid simulation model for dependent/independent networks which have two origins and one destination. The simulation results showed that AGtt(Average gap expected travel time and simulated travel time) did not converge, but average schedule delay gap converged to a stable state in transportation network consisted of multiple origins and destinations, multiple paths, freeways and some intersections controlled by signal. We present that the hybrid simulation model can estimate dynamic OD and analyze the effectiveness by changing the attributes or the traveler and networks. Thus, the hybrid simulation model can analyze the effectiveness that reflects changing departure times, travel modes and travel paths by demand management Policy, changing network facilities, traffic information supplies. and so on.

Development of Predicting Models of the Operating Speed and Operating environment Satisfaction Model in Expressways (고속도로의 주행속도예측 및 주행환경만족도 모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jang-Uk;Jang, Il-Jun;Kim, Jeong-Hyeon;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.117-131
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    • 2009
  • When most drivers take to the freeway, they don't necessarily pay attention to the geometric design. They expect proper design by depending on their own senses and recognition. When they evaluate the features of traveling on the freeway, they can think differently than engineers. The design needs to predict the exact speed of the driver to satisfy the driver's expectation, safety, pleasure and so on. This study categorized the factors influencing the speed of six freeways considering geometric and operational features to make a prediction model of speed. The model used multiple regression with these factors and produced statically appropriate results. This study utilized the principle component analysis and the quantification II analysis based on the image data of the satisfaction of the traveling environment collected through individual interviews. As a result, this study found the factors of satisfaction in a traveling environment. It made a satisfaction model of the traveling environment on freeways considering the change of driver's actual recognition and societal recognition using structural equations and the quantification II theory. Through the model made in this study, This model can present not only qualitative factors like satisfaction of traveling environment on freeways, but also the quantitative elements like speed. What is important is the evaluation of features of traveling on freeways reflected in the recognition and traffic environment felt by drivers.

Impact of Heterogeneous Dispersion Parameter on the Expected Crash Frequency (이질적 과분산계수가 기대 교통사고건수 추정에 미치는 영향)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.5585-5593
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    • 2014
  • This study tested the hypothesis that the significance of the heterogeneous dispersion parameter in safety performance function (SPF) used to estimate the expected crashes is affected by the endogenous heterogeneous prior distributions, and analyzed the impacts of the mis-specified dispersion parameter on the evaluation results for traffic safety countermeasures. In particular, this study simulated the Poisson means based on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters and estimated the SPFs using both the negative binomial (NB) model and the heterogeneous negative binomial (HNB) model for analyzing the impacts of the model mis-specification on the mean and dispersion functions in SPF. In addition, this study analyzed the characteristics of errors in the crash reduction factors (CRFs) obtained when the two models are used to estimate the posterior means and variances, which are essentially estimated through the estimated hyper-parameters in the heterogeneous prior distributions. The simulation study results showed that a mis-estimation on the heterogeneous dispersion parameters through the NB model does not affect the coefficient of the mean functions, but the variances of the prior distribution are seriously mis-estimated when the NB model is used to develop SPFs without considering the heterogeneity in dispersion. Consequently, when the NB model is used erroneously to estimate the prior distributions with heterogeneous dispersion parameters, the mis-estimated posterior mean can produce large errors in CRFs up to 120%.

An Estimation Model for the Replacement Parts based on the Operational Availability of Hi-Pass System (하이패스 운용가용도를 이용한 부품의 교체 추정 모델)

  • Hwang, Eui-duk;Heo, Seo Jeong;Kim, Chang Suk;Cheul, Son Dong
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.6 no.6
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    • pp.285-291
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    • 2015
  • FTMS, TCS, ITS equipment such as high-pass highway are just a situation that does not lack traceability and passive surveillance is related to fault DB has so far consisted of an integrated operations management to maximize utilization of the facility. In addition, there is no replacement parts are replaced when a failure occurs, increasing the number of parts and repair time I have trouble growing, and becoming a service interruption whenever you replace each time. In this study, proactively manage the failure history of a highway facility ITS tries to preventive maintenance. Therefore, the error history is based on the reliability of the high-pass facilities theory to calculate the reliability of the system through a systematic statistical analysis Operational Availability. The fault number and the time the replacement period through the estimate decreases and can reduce the budget expenses by securing the spare parts quantity, establish a management plan in part by improving the quality of the system through constant preventive maintenance, quality of service at all times It may direct the non-stop operation state of the available state.

Design Hourly Factor Estimation with Railway Passenger Data (철도이용객데이터를 이용한 철도역사 설계시간계수 산정연구)

  • Oh, Tae ho;Lee, Seon ha;Cheon, Choon keun;Yu, Byung young;Lee, Sang Jae
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.64-77
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    • 2017
  • Domestic railway station calculates average number of passenger per day by considering future regional society and development of industrial economy etc, is carrying out designs on railway station scale. However, problems are being suggested situationally because selected average passenger data does not consider passengers having been diversified for a year. For representative example, confusion of Gwangju-Songjeong Railway Station got worse due to passengers whose number is more than original plan since the opening. Therefore, this study quotes the concept of design hourly factor using in designing roads to consider passengers having been diversified for a year in railway field. In order to calculate factor, collecting railway passenger data and also estimate, reliability verification were executed by using exponential model and 3rd equation model. As a result of deducing design hourly factor through inflection point calculation, utilizing exponen tial model is analyzed to well reflect the value of design hourly factor on railway passengers.

Development of Free Flow Speed Estimation Model by Artificial Neural Networks for Freeway Basic Sections (인공신경망을 이용한 고속도로 기본구간 자유속도 추정모형개발)

  • Kang, Jin-Gu;Chang, Myung-Soon;Kim, Jin-Tae;Kim, Eung-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.109-125
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    • 2004
  • In recent decades, microscopic simulation models have become powerful tools to analyze traffic flow on highways and to assist the investigation of level of service. The existing microscopic simulation models simulate an individual vehicle's speed based on a constant free-flow speed dominantly specified by users and driver's behavior models reflecting vehicle interactions, such as car following and lane changing. They set a single free-flow speed for a single vehicle on a given link and neglect to consider the effects of highway design elements to it in their internal simulation. Due to this, the existing models are limitted to provide with identical simulation results on both curved and tangent sections of highways. This paper presents a model developed to estimate the change of free-flow speeds based on highway design elements. Nine neural network models were trained based on the field data collected from seven different freeway curve sections and three different locations at each section to capture the percent changes of free-flow speeds: 100 m upstream of the point of curve (PC) and the middle of the curve. The model employing seven highway design elements as its input variables was selected as the best : radius of curve, length of curve, superelevation, the number of lanes, grade variations, and the approaching free-flow speed on 100 m upstream of PC. Tests showed that the free-flow speeds estimated by the proposed model were statistically identical to the ones from the field at 95% confidence level at each three different locations described above. The root mean square errors at the starting and the middle of curve section were 6.68 and 10.06, and the R-squares at these points were 0.77 and 0.65, respectively. It was concluded from the study that the proposed model would be one of the potential tools introducing the effects of highway design elements to free-flow speeds in simulation.