• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.29 no.6
• /
• pp.151-157
• /
• 2014

This study deals with the rear-end collision at roundabouts. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident models of rear-end collision in Korea. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attention to developing the appropriate models using Poisson, negative binomial model, ZAM, multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, and statistical analysis tools. The main results are as follows. First, the Vuong statistics and overdispersion parameters indicate that ZIP is the most appropriate model among count data models. Second, RMSE, MPB, MAD and correlation coefficient tests show that the multiple nonlinear model is the most suitable to the rear-end collision data. Finally, such the independent variables as traffic volume, ratio of heavy vehicle, number of circulatory roadway lane, number of crosswalk and stop line are adopted in the optimal model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.26 no.4
• /
• pp.29-40
• /
• 2008

Although a good understanding of the relationship between highway traffic accidents and highway geometric features is fundamental in highway design and safety, the relationship is not well understood quantitatively. The overall goal of this paper is to formulate a reliable statistical model fitting to historical highway accident data. The model can be used to estimate the effect of road design elements on safety for the practical purposes of highway design applications. En route to achieving this goal, a number of specific research objectives were accomplished: investigate the major design elements affecting highway safety; review the existing modeling approaches in order to assess the relationship between safety and highway design features; and formulate a statistical model fitting to the accident data in order to estimate the interchange ramp junction accident frequency of rural highways.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.54-63
• /
• 2014

Traffic accident frequency and severity level in Korea are known to be very serious. Especially the number of pedestrian fatalities was much worse and 1.6 time higher than the OECD average. According to the National Police Agency, the flash signals are reported to have many safety benefits as well as travel time reduction, which is opposed to the foreign studies. With this background of expanding the flash signal, this research aims to investigate the overall impact of the flash signal operation on safety, investigating and comparing the accident occurrence on the flash signal and the full signal intersections. For doing this accident prediction models for both flash and full signal intersections were estimated using independent variables (geometric features and traffic volume) and 3-year (2011-2013) accident data collected in Seoul. Considering the rare and random nature of accident occurrence and overdispersion (variance > mean) of the data, the negative binomial regression model was applied. As a result, installing wider crosswalk and increasing the number of pedestrian push buttons seemed to increase the safety of the flash signal intersections. In addition, the result showed that the average accident occurrence at the flash signal intersections was higher than at the full signal-operated intersections, 9% higher with everything else the same.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
• /
• 1995.02a
• /
• pp.3-32
• /
• 1995

The Highway Capacity Manual specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of delay per vehicle. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for ass~ssing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections based on the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans. Conflict opportunity models were developed for those crossing, diverging, and stopping maneuvers which are associated with left-turn and rear-end accidents. Safety¬based level-of-service criteria were then developed based on the distribution of conflict opportunities computed from the developed models. A case study evaluation of the level of service analysis methodology revealed that the developed safety-based criteria were not as sensitive to changes in prevailing traffic, roadway, and signal timing conditions as the traditional delay-based measure. However, the methodology did permit a quantitative assessment of the trade-off between delay reduction and safety improvement. The Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) specifies procedures for evaluating intersection performance in terms of a wide variety of prevailing conditions such as traffic composition, intersection geometry, traffic volumes, and signal timing (1). At the present time, however, performance is only measured in terms of delay per vehicle. This is a parameter which is widely accepted as a meaningful and useful indicator of the efficiency with which an intersection is serving traffic needs. What is lacking in the current methodology is a comparable quantitative procedure for assessing the safety-based level of service provided to motorists. For example, it is well¬known that the change from permissive to protected left-turn phasing can reduce left-turn accident frequency. However, the HCM only permits a quantitative assessment of the impact of this alternative phasing arrangement on vehicle delay. It is left to the engineer or planner to subjectively judge the level of safety benefits, and to evaluate the trade-off between the efficiency and safety consequences of the alternative phasing plans. Numerous examples of other geometric design and signal timing improvements could also be given. At present, the principal methods available to the practitioner for evaluating the relative safety at signalized intersections are: a) the application of engineering judgement, b) accident analyses, and c) traffic conflicts analysis. Reliance on engineering judgement has obvious limitations, especially when placed in the context of the elaborate HCM procedures for calculating delay. Accident analyses generally require some type of before-after comparison, either for the case study intersection or for a large set of similar intersections. In e.ither situation, there are problems associated with compensating for regression-to-the-mean phenomena (2), as well as obtaining an adequate sample size. Research has also pointed to potential bias caused by the way in which exposure to accidents is measured (3, 4). Because of the problems associated with traditional accident analyses, some have promoted the use of tqe traffic conflicts technique (5). However, this procedure also has shortcomings in that it.requires extensive field data collection and trained observers to identify the different types of conflicts occurring in the field. The objective of the research described herein was to develop a computational procedure for evaluating the safety-based level of service of signalized intersections that would be compatible and consistent with that presently found in the HCM for evaluating efficiency-based level of service as measured by delay per vehicle (6). The intent was not to develop a new set of accident prediction models, but to design a methodology to quantitatively predict the relative hazard of alternative intersection designs and signal timing plans.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.30 no.6D
• /
• pp.577-585
• /
• 2010

Traffic accidents are caused by several factors such as drivers, vehicles, and road environment. It is necessary to investigate and analyze them in advance to prevent similar and repetitive traffic accidents. Especially, the human factor is most significant element and traffic accidents by drinking-driving caused from human factor have become social problem to be paid attention to. The study analyzes traffic accidents resulting from drinking-driving and the effects of driver's attributes and environmental factors on them. The study is composed as two parts. First, the log-linear model is applied to analyze that accidents by drinking or non-drinking driving associate with road geometry, weather condition and personal characteristics. Probability is tested for drinking-driving accidents relative to non-drinking drive accidents. The study analyzes probability differences between genders, between ages, and between kinds of vehicles through odds multipliers. Second, traffic accidents related to drinking are classified into property damage, minor injury, heavy injury, and death according to their severity. Heavy injury is more serious than minor one and death is more serious than heavy injury. The ordinal regression models are established to find effecting factors on traffic accident severity.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.10 no.2 s.21
• /
• pp.29-34
• /
• 2004

The marine traffic congestion has increased due to the expansion of vessel traffic volume in Korean coastal waterway these days. Heavy traffic could bring serious marine casualties which cause the loss of human lives, properties and marine pollution in coastal area. In this paper, the probability analysis of marine casualties in Korean coast. To achieve this aim, clears up the cause of accident and examines closely the mutual relations among marine casualties, weather condition, and marine traffic volume. These casualties are classified into several patterns or the point of view of ship's size, ship's type and ship's age and its characteristics of each pattern are described In detail.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.6
• /
• pp.11-20
• /
• 2023

The cost of medical treatment for motor vehicle accidents is increasing every year. In this study, we created a model to predict long-term hospitalization(more than 18 days) among minor patients, which is the main item of increasing traffic accident medical expenses, using five algorithms such as decision tree, and analyzed the factors affecting long-term hospitalization. As a result, the accuracy of the prediction models ranged from 91.377 to 91.451, and there was no significant difference between each model, but the random forest and XGBoost models had the highest accuracy of 91.451. There were significant differences between models in the importance of explanatory variables, such as hospital location, name of disease, and type of hospital, between the long-stay and non-long-stay groups. Model validation was tested by comparing the average accuracy of each model cross-validated(10 times) on the training data with the accuracy of the validation data. To test of the explanatory variables, the chi-square test was used for categorical variables.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.32 no.6
• /
• pp.662-674
• /
• 2014

In this study, accident frequency prediction models were constructed by collecting variables such as geometric structures, safety facilities, traffic volume and weather conditions, land use, highway design-satisfaction criteria along 780km (4,372 sections) of 4 lane-highways over 8 areas. As for models, a fixed parameter model and a random parameter model were employed. In the random parameter model, some influences were reversed as the range was expressed based on specific probability in the case of no fixed coefficients. In the fixed parameter model, the influences of independent variables on accident frequency were interpreted by using one coefficient, but in the random parameter model, more various interpretations were took place. In particular, curve radius, securement of shoulder lane, vertical grade design criteria satisfaction showed both positive and negative influence, according to specific probability. This means that there could be a reverse effect depending on the behavioral characteristics of drivers and the characteristics of highway sections. Rather, they influence the increase of accident frequency through the all sections.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.36 no.1
• /
• pp.13-22
• /
• 2018

Buses, one of the representative public transportation modes, are divided into a vareity of service types according to the purpose of operation, operating distance, and management agencies. Although bus-involved crashes may cause large amount of damage due to the higher number of passengers boarded on a bus, prior research has little focused on crash severity according to bus service types. This study aims to investigate factors influencing crash severity in bus-involved crashes and to present policy implications to reduce crash severity by bus service type. To do this, bus-involved crash data from the Traffic Accident Analysis System (TAAS) during five-year period are used. Ordered probit models for three types of bus service, i.e., city bus, suburban and express buses, and charter buses, are estimated to analyze the factors of accident severity. The results show that there are significant differences of factors affecting crash severity among the types of bus services while speed and road surface influence all the types of buses. In case of local buses, time of day, roadway alignment, and installation of a traffic signal are found to be statistically significant factors. Seat belt and road class have significant effects on injury severity of the intercity and express buses. Chartered buses have time of day, driving experience, seatbelt, traffic signal, and day of week as the significant factors. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the reduction of the crash severity by each bus service type.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.21-27
• /
• 1999

The objective of this study is to clarify the relationship between accident rate and V/C for freeway facility. The relationship can be used as a basic reference to predict and prevent traffic accident. The traffic volume and the number of accidents from 1992 to 1997 on Shingal-Ansan Freeway were analyzed in this study to clarify the relationship. Hourly accident rate and V/C were calculated for each facility sections : basic freeway section, tunnel section and toll gate section. The accident rate models consisting of an independent variable of V/C were established by repression analysis and compared with each other. The relationship between accident rates and V/C ratios represented U-shaped pattern for all sections. The result of this study indicates that accident rates are highest in the low hourly V/C range, decrease with increasing V/C ratio, and then increase as the V/C ratio increases. The accident rate of toll gate section is in general higher than that of other sections. Although the accident rate of tunnel section is higher than that of basic freeway section when V/C is above 0.67, there is no significant difference of accident rate between basic freeway and tunnel section when V/C is between 0.5 and 0.8. Basic freeway tunnel and toll gate section have the minimum accident rate when V/C is 0.78, 0.75 and 0.57 respectively.