Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2014.32.6.662

A Development of Traffic Accident Estimation Model by Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model: Focus on Multilane Rural Highway  

Lim, Joon Beom (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul)
Lee, Soo Beom (Department of Transportation Engineering, University of Seoul)
Kim, Joon-Ki (National Infrastructure Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements)
Kim, Jeong Hyun (Green Transport & Logistics Institute, Korea Railroad Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.32, no.6, 2014 , pp. 662-674 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, accident frequency prediction models were constructed by collecting variables such as geometric structures, safety facilities, traffic volume and weather conditions, land use, highway design-satisfaction criteria along 780km (4,372 sections) of 4 lane-highways over 8 areas. As for models, a fixed parameter model and a random parameter model were employed. In the random parameter model, some influences were reversed as the range was expressed based on specific probability in the case of no fixed coefficients. In the fixed parameter model, the influences of independent variables on accident frequency were interpreted by using one coefficient, but in the random parameter model, more various interpretations were took place. In particular, curve radius, securement of shoulder lane, vertical grade design criteria satisfaction showed both positive and negative influence, according to specific probability. This means that there could be a reverse effect depending on the behavioral characteristics of drivers and the characteristics of highway sections. Rather, they influence the increase of accident frequency through the all sections.
Keywords
accident model; accident frequency; negative binomial model; random parameter; road safety;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 AASHTO (2010), Highway Safety Manual 1st Edition.
2 Anastasopoulos P. Ch., Mannering F. L. (2009), A Note on Modeling Vehicle Accident Frequencies with Randomparameters Count Models, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 41, 153-159.   DOI   ScienceOn
3 Bhat C. R. (2003), Simulation Estimation of Mixed Discrete Choice Models Using Randomized and Scrambled Halton Sequences, Transportation Research Part B, 37(1), 837-855.   DOI   ScienceOn
4 Cafiso S., Graziano Di A., Silvestro Di G., Cava La G., Persaud B. (2010), Development of Comprehensive Accident Models for Two-lane Rural Highways Using Exposure, Geometry, Consistency and Context Variables, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42, 1072-1079.   DOI   ScienceOn
5 Carson J., Mannering F. (2001), The Effect of Ice Warning Signs on Ice-accident Frequencies and Severities, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 33(1), 99-109.   DOI   ScienceOn
6 Chen E., Tarko A. P. (2014), Modeling Safety of Highway Work Zones with Random Parameters and Random Effects Models, Analytic Methods in Accident Research, 1, 86-95.   DOI   ScienceOn
7 Dinu R. R., Veeraragavan A. (2011), Random Parameter Models for Accident Prediction on Two-lane Undivided Highways in India, Journal of Safety Research, 42, 39-42.   DOI   ScienceOn
8 El-Basyouny K., Sayed T. (2006), Comparison of Two Negative Binomial Regression Techniques in Developing Accident Prediction Models, Transportation Research Record, 1950, 9-16.   DOI
9 Gustavsson J., Svensson A. (1976), A Poisson Regression Model Applied to Classes of Road Accidents with Small Frequencies, Scandinacian Jounal of Statistics 3, (2), 49-60.
10 Kim D. G., Washington S. (2006), The Significance of Endogeneity Problems in Crash Models: An Examination of Left-turn Lanes in Intersection Crash Models, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 38(6), 1094-1100.   DOI   ScienceOn
11 Kim D. H., Lee D. M. (2011), An Analysis of Traffic Accident Reduction Effects by Driving Condition Improvements, Journal of Transportation Research, 18(1), 15-26.
12 Kim E. C., Choi E. J., Lee D. M., Kim D. H. (2010), Development and Validation of Accident Modification Factors of Two-Lane Rural Roadways, Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 28(3), 131-143.   과학기술학회마을
13 Kim Y. R., Kim D. G. (2012), Identifying the Safety Effects of Explanatory Variables Affecting Fatal Crashes Occurred on Rural Roadway Segments, Journal of Transportation Research, 19(1), 57-66.
14 Li X., Lord D., Zhang Y. (2009), Development of Accident Modification Factors for Rural Frontage Road Segments in Texas Using Results From Generalized Additive Models, Working Paper, Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.
15 Lord D., Washington S., Ivan J. (2007), Further Notes on the Application of Zero Inflated Models in Highway Safety, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 39(1), 53-57.   DOI   ScienceOn
16 Miaou S.-P., Lord D. (2003), Modeling Traffic Crash-flow Relationships for Intersections: Dispersion Parameter, Functional Form, and Bayes Versus Empirical Bayes, Transportation Research Record, 1840, 31-40.   DOI
17 Milton J. C., Shankar V. N., Mannering F. L. (2008), Highway Accident Severities and the Mixed Logit Model: An Exploratory Empirical Analysis, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40(1), 260-266.   DOI   ScienceOn
18 Oh J. T., Kim D. H., Lee D. M. (2012), Development of the Expected Safety Performance Models for Rural Highway Segments, Korean Society Of Road Engineers, 14(2), 131-143.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Ogden K. W. (1997), The Effects of Paved Shoulders on Accidents on Rural Highways, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 29(3), 353-362.   DOI   ScienceOn
20 Oh J. (2006), Development of Severity Models for Vehicle Accident Injuries for Signalized Intersections Inrural Areas, KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 10(3), 219-225.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
21 Park E.-S., Carlson P., Porter R., Anderson C. (2012), Safety Effects of Wider Edge Lines on Rural, Twolane Highways, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 48, 317-325.   DOI   ScienceOn
22 Park G. Y. (2006), Evaluation of Accident Reduction Effect of Road Safety Features and Development of Estimation Model for Accident Reduction Factors, University of Seoul.
23 Park J. T., Choi B. B., Lee S. B. (2010), A Study on the Characteristics of Traffic Accidents for the Elderly Pedestrians on Rural Highways, Journal of Korea Society of Transportation, 28(5), 155-162.   과학기술학회마을
24 Park M. H. (2013), Relationship Between Interstate Highway Accidents and Heterogeneous Geometrics by Random Parameter Negative Binomial Model -A Case of Interstate Highway in Washington State-, USA, Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, 33(6), 2437-2445.   과학기술학회마을   DOI   ScienceOn
25 Poch M., Mannering F. (1996), Negative Binomial Analysis of Intersection-accident Frequencies, Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122(2), 105-113.   DOI   ScienceOn
26 Venkataraman N. S., Ulfarsson G. F., Shankar V., Oh J., Park M. (2011), Model of Relationship Between Interstate Crash Occurrence and Geometrics: Exploratory Insights from Random Parameter Negative Binomial Approach, 2011 Safety Data, Analysis, and Evaluation 2011, 2236, 41-48.
27 Qin X., Ivan J., Ravishankar N. (2004), Selecting Exposure Measures in Crash Rate Prediction for Two-lane Highway Segments, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 36(2), 183-191.   DOI   ScienceOn
28 Shankar V., Mannering F., Barfield W. (1995), Effect of Roadway Geometrics and Environmental Factors on Rural Accident Frequencies, Accident Analysis and Prevention, 27(3), 371-389.   DOI   ScienceOn
29 Shankar V., Ulfarsson G., Pendyala R., Nebergall M. (2003), Modeling Crashes Involving Pedestrians and Motorized Traffic, Safety Science, 41(7), 627-640.   DOI   ScienceOn
30 Vogt A., Bared J. (1998), Accident Models for Two-lane Rural Segments and Intersections, Transportation Research Record, 1635, 18-29.   DOI