• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2005.07a
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• pp.822-824
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• 2005

This paper presents a scheme to solve the congestion problem using phase-shifting transformer(PST) in power systems. Available transfer capability(ATC) is an important indicator of the usable amount of transmission capacity accessible by several parties for commercial trading in power transaction activities. This paper deals with an application of optimization technique for ATC calculation. Sequential quadratic programming(SQP) is used to maximize power flow of tie line subject to security constraints such as voltage magnitude and real power flow. The proposed method is applied to 10 machines 39 buses model systems to show its effectiveness.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.21 no.48
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• pp.311-322
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• 1998

Today, as a globalization continues and international trading blocks are formed, world markets are intensely competitive and abound in product variety, volume, complexity and environment. An environmental management system comprises the environmental elements of the overall management system. The basic input to a management system is information from stake holders, the operational system and the environment, the outputs are decisions and informations. Specifically, green comsumer's needs and expectations are changing and diversifying, resulting in a changed global environment for industry. Due to these changes, many companies are striving to achieve the ISO 14000 environmental management system certification. In this paper, I will present the strategy of environmental management, system strategy and continue to build a unique environmental management system by analyzing companies that will be achieved the ISO 14000 certification. After companies establish an ISO 9000 quality system these companies should focus on improve toward their own quality systems and continue to build ISO 14000.

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.7 no.5S
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• pp.1719-1725
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• 2000

Since the advance of WWW, internet related fields have been growing very rapidly. Especially, the development of electronic commerce ares have changed even or life style. This paper is about the design and implementation of an internet auction system, which is considered as on of the most attractive internet services. An internet auction system has more complex processes compared with other electronic commerce systems. In auction systems, bids and a successful bid are required in trading all goods. In this paper, I designed and implemented all processes of an internet auction system, in which a bid tracing systems is included for the first time. The bid tracing system is implemented using only HTTP in maintain compatibility in WWW environment. I also used th JAVA blocking concept to simulate two-way communication. The proposed system is implemented on Windows NT environment using JAVA, ASP, and the Oracle database.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.15-25
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• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine whether the change of settlement procedures have an impact on the distribution of day of the week effect in the UK and French markets or not. U.K and France changed their systems from fixed settlement date systems to fixed settlement lag systems Design/methodology/approach - This study adopted the data of the specific stock market indices such as FTSE 100 in the U.K market and FRCAC 40 in the French market, This study constructs a test of the differences in mean returns across the days of the week by computing the regression equations for each country index. Findings - First, this study found that the evolving settlement procedures in stock exchanges have an effect on stock return of day of the week. Second, long-run improvements in market efficiency may have diminished the effects of certain anomalies in recent periods. Improvements in market efficiency and evolving settlement systems may cause the disappearance of the weekend effect. Research implications or Originality - The Implication of this study is that recent settlement systems contributed to the disappearance of the weekend effect and explains improvements in market efficiency and diminishments of market anomaly. This study may be the first study which examines whether evolving settlement systems have an effect on the disappearance of the weekend effect in the market or not.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.119-133
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• 2020

Fama asserted that in an efficient market, we can't make a trading rule that consistently outperforms the average stock market returns. This study aims to suggest a machine learning algorithm to improve the trading performance of an intraday short volatility strategy applying asymmetric volatility spillover effect, and analyze its trading performance improvement. Generally stock market volatility has a negative relation with stock market return and the Korean stock market volatility is influenced by the US stock market volatility. This volatility spillover effect is asymmetric. The asymmetric volatility spillover effect refers to the phenomenon that the US stock market volatility up and down differently influence the next day's volatility of the Korean stock market. We collected the S&P 500 index, VIX, KOSPI 200 index, and V-KOSPI 200 from 2008 to 2018. We found the negative relation between the S&P 500 and VIX, and the KOSPI 200 and V-KOSPI 200. We also documented the strong volatility spillover effect from the VIX to the V-KOSPI 200. Interestingly, the asymmetric volatility spillover was also found. Whereas the VIX up is fully reflected in the opening volatility of the V-KOSPI 200, the VIX down influences partially in the opening volatility and its influence lasts to the Korean market close. If the stock market is efficient, there is no reason why there exists the asymmetric volatility spillover effect. It is a counter example of the efficient market hypothesis. To utilize this type of anomalous volatility spillover pattern, we analyzed the intraday volatility selling strategy. This strategy sells short the Korean volatility market in the morning after the US stock market volatility closes down and takes no position in the volatility market after the VIX closes up. It produced profit every year between 2008 and 2018 and the percent profitable is 68%. The trading performance showed the higher average annual return of 129% relative to the benchmark average annual return of 33%. The maximum draw down, MDD, is -41%, which is lower than that of benchmark -101%. The Sharpe ratio 0.32 of SVS strategy is much greater than the Sharpe ratio 0.08 of the Benchmark strategy. The Sharpe ratio simultaneously considers return and risk and is calculated as return divided by risk. Therefore, high Sharpe ratio means high performance when comparing different strategies with different risk and return structure. Real world trading gives rise to the trading costs including brokerage cost and slippage cost. When the trading cost is considered, the performance difference between 76% and -10% average annual returns becomes clear. To improve the performance of the suggested volatility trading strategy, we used the well-known SVM algorithm. Input variables include the VIX close to close return at day t-1, the VIX open to close return at day t-1, the VK open return at day t, and output is the up and down classification of the VK open to close return at day t. The training period is from 2008 to 2014 and the testing period is from 2015 to 2018. The kernel functions are linear function, radial basis function, and polynomial function. We suggested the modified-short volatility strategy that sells the VK in the morning when the SVM output is Down and takes no position when the SVM output is Up. The trading performance was remarkably improved. The 5-year testing period trading results of the m-SVS strategy showed very high profit and low risk relative to the benchmark SVS strategy. The annual return of the m-SVS strategy is 123% and it is higher than that of SVS strategy. The risk factor, MDD, was also significantly improved from -41% to -29%.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.97-116
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• 2004

Recently, e portion of on-line stock brokerage has been rapidly increased to be more than 50%, on the basis of contracted money. The usage of wCTS(Web Based Cyber Trading Systems) has now got into the steady state over the initial diffusion stage, which means wCTS has got more-than-half customer base in on-line service. Therefore, brokerage service providers have their competitive strategic focus on customer retention through the enhancement of customer loyalty. This study provides framework and survey results on explanation of wCTS user's loyalty, what and how factors affect wCTS user's loyalty. We adopt the results of early studies on information technology acceptance and diffusion such as TAM(Technology Acceptance Model) and IDT(Innovation Diffusion Theory). We also referred loyalty theory of marketing area and studios on CTS usage. We categorized explanation factors as three groups characteristics of users, characteristics of system, social environment. And we assumed that these three factors could affect the loyalty through two parameters : customer satisfaction and trust to the system. This study firstly shows that the ease of use and usefulness, the major factors of TAM. can also be applied to the loyalty of wCTS with resulting that the usefulness is more important than the ease of use In wCTS. Secondly, it shows that the innovative and risk-sensitive user has the lower degree of loyalty. Thirdly, it shows that the satisfaction and trust impact the loyalty simultaneously, the trust particularly impacts more strongly than the loyalty, due to the characteristics of monetary transaction in wCTS. This study provides meaningful results to the other on-line EC service fields as a first empirical research regarding the loyalty to wCTS which is a typical on-line EC service.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.83-105
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• 2013

There are many literatures about the herding behavior of institutional investors but there is lack of literatures about the relation among several investor groups consisting of institutional investors. So we investigate the relation among sub-institutional investor groups like bank, insurance companies, pension funds using KRX intraday trading data of 2009. As the result, we find that foreign, individual, and securities firm investors trade in the opposite direction of other investor groups including pension funds. And pension, insurance, asset management, private equity funds, other companies, government, and banks are cross-mimicking each other, so we conclude that these investors make herding behavior. In 2009 institutional investors except securities firms make herding in a short period, and insurance, asset management, pension funds and other companies make herding and self-mimicking in all period, but there is no herding and mimicking after foreign investors.

• Journal of Fisheries and Marine Sciences Education
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.1685-1692
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• 2015

This study examines the mackerel distribution systems in Norway which has a leading mackerel industry, and has the purpose of analyzing the effects of structural improvements for the development of Korea's mackerel industry. The landing and distribution status of Korea and Norway's mackerel industry was compared, and the effects of structural improvements was analyzed under the assumption that a number of factors would be improved after an analysis of competitiveness. Special features of the landing and distribution systems of mackerel in Norway are Reduction of transportation costs and transportation time through E-auctions, fish Pumps, freshness management using state-of-the-art equipment and technology such as sea water cooling systems, direct landing at processing factories and Automation through fully automated sorting & packaging systems. The distribution competitiveness of Korea and Norway's mackerel industry was compared through the qualitative review of landing time and the length of distribution channel, distribution costs due to differences in trading method, quality and hygiene management and merchandising. For Korea's mackerel industry to have international competitiveness, they must have efficiency throughout the phases of landing, processing and distribution systems as observed in case of Norway.

• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.293-306
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• 2003

In recent years, distributed computing environments have been radically changing to a structure of global, heterogeneous, federative and wide-area systems. This structure's environments consist of a let of objects which are implemented on telecommunication network to provide a wide range of services. Furthermore, all of objects existing on the earth have the duplicated characteristics according to how to categorize their own names or properties. But, the existing naming or trading mechanism has not supported the binding services of duplicated objects, because of deficiency of independent location service. Also, if the duplicated objects which is existing on different nodes provide the same service, it is possible to distribute the client requests considering each system's load. For this reason, we designed and implemented a new model that can not only support the location management of replication objects, but also provide the dynamic binding service of objects located in a system with minimum overload for maintaining load balancing among nodes in wide-area object computing environments. Our model is functionally divided into two parts; one part is to obtain an unique object handle of replicated objects with same property as a naming and trading service, and the other is to search one or more contact addresses by a location service using a given object handle. From a given model mentioned above, we present the procedures for the integrated binding mechanism in design phase, that is, Naming/Trading Service and Location Service. And then, we described in details the architecture of components for Integrated Binding Service implemented. Finally, we showed our implement environment and executing result of our model.