• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.43-69
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• 2005

This study provides empirical evidence that the stochastic beta model based on Bayesian analysis outperforms the existing conditional beta model and GARCH model in terms of the estimation accuracy and the explanatory power in the cross-section of stock returns in Korea. Betas estimated by the stochastic beta model explain $30{\sim}50%$ of the cross-sectional variation in stock-returns, whereas other time-varying beta models account for less than 3%. Such a difference in explanatory power across models turns out to come from the fact that the stochastic beta model absorbs the variation due to the market anomalies such as size, BE/ME, and idiosyncratic volatility. These results support the rational asset pricing model in that market anomalies are closely related to the variation of expected returns generated by time-varying betas.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.71-78
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• 2017

This paper aims to investigate the time-varying systematic risk of the stocks of Korean logistics firms. For this purpose, the period from January 1991 to October 2016 was examined with respect to 21 logistics companies that are listed on the Korea Exchange. The systematic risk of the logistics stocks is measured in terms of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) beta for which the sensitivity of a stock is compared to the return changes of the whole market. Overall, the betas of the stocks of the Korean logistics companies are significantly lower than those of the market unity; however, it was revealed that the logistics betas are not constant, but are actually time-varying according to different economic regimes, which is consistent with the previous empirical findings. This finding is robust across different measurements of the logistics betas. In addition, the impact of macroeconomic factors on the logistics betas was examined. The present study shows that the logistics betas are positively associated with foreign exchange-rate changes.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.256-272
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• 2017

Extreme rainfall has become more frequent over the Korean peninsula in recent years, causing serious damages. In a changing climate, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to overestimate (or underestimate) the design rainfalls. A main objective of this study is to develop a stochastic disaggregation method of seasonal rainfall to hourly extreme rainfall, and offer a way to derive the nonstationary IDF curves. In this study, we propose a novel approach based on a Four-Parameter Beta (4P-beta) distribution to estimate the nonstationary IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) seasonal rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the 4P beta distribution. Moreover, this study employed a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters. The proposed model showed a comparable design rainfall to that of GEV distribution under the stationary assumption. As a nonstationary rainfall frequency model, the proposed model can effectively translate the seasonal variation into the sub-daily extreme rainfall.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.651-658
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• 2013

For the marginal model and generalized estimating equations (GEE) method there is important full covariates conditional mean (FCCM) assumption which is pointed out by Pepe and Anderson (1994). With longitudinal data with time-varying stochastic covariates, this assumption may not necessarily hold. If this assumption is violated, the biased estimates of regression coefficients may result. But if a diagonal working correlation matrix is used, irrespective of whether the assumption is violated, the resulting estimates are (nearly) unbiased (Pan et al., 2000).The quadratic inference functions (QIF) method proposed by Qu et al. (2000) is the method based on generalized method of moment (GMM) using GEE. The QIF yields a substantial improvement in efficiency for the estimator of ${\beta}$ when the working correlation is misspecified, and equal efficiency to the GEE when the working correlation is correct (Qu et al., 2000).In this paper, we interest in whether the QIF can improve the results of the GEE method in the case of FCCM is violated. We show that the QIF with exchangeable and AR(1) working correlation matrix cannot be consistent and asymptotically normal in this case. Also it may not be efficient than GEE with independence working correlation. Our simulation studies verify the result.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.39-42
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• 2002

For the purpose of modeling EEG signal which has nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic characteristics, this paper propose a state feedback real time recurrent neural network model. The state feedback real time recurrent neural network is structured to have memory structure in the state of hidden layers so that it has arbitrary dynamics and ability to deal with time-varying input through its own temporal operation. For the model test, Mackey-Glass time series is used as a nonlinear dynamic system and the model is applied to the prediction of three types of EEG, alpha wave, beta wave and epileptic EEG. Experimental results show that the performance of the proposed model is better than that of other neural network models which are compared in this paper in some view points of the converging speed in learning stage and normalized mean square error for the test data set.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.245-261
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• 2007

Nonlinear time-domain system identification (SI) algorithm is proposed to assess damage in a shear building by synchronously estimating time-varying stiffness and damping parameters using measured acceleration data. Mass properties have been assumed as the a priori known information. Viscous damping was utilized for the current research. To chase possible nonlinear dynamic behavior under severe vibration, an incremental governing equation of vibrational motion has been utilized. Stiffness and damping parameters are estimated at each time step by minimizing the response error between measured and computed acceleration increments at the measured degrees-of-freedom. To solve a nonlinear constrained optimization problem for optimal structural parameters, sensitivities of acceleration increment were formulated with respect to stiffness and damping parameters, respectively. Incremental state vectors of vibrational motion were computed numerically by Newmark-${\beta}$ method. No model is pre-defined in the proposed algorithm for recovering the nonlinear response. A time-window scheme together with Monte Carlo iterations was utilized to estimate parameters with noise polluted sparse measured acceleration. A moving average scheme was applied to estimate the time-varying trend of structural parameters in all the examples. To examine the proposed SI algorithm, simulation studies were carried out intensively with sample shear buildings under earthquake excitations. In addition, the algorithm was applied to assess damage with laboratory test data obtained from free vibration on a three-story shear building model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.38 no.5
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• pp.655-669
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• 2018

In this study, we developed a hybrid forecasting model based on a four-parameter distribution which allows a simultaneous season-ahead forecasting for both seasonal rainfall and sub-daily rainfall in Han-River and Geum-River basins. The proposed model is mainly utilized a set of time-varying predictors and the associated model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian nonstationary rainfall frequency framework. The hybrid forecasting model was validated through an cross-validatory experiment using the recent rainfall events during 2014~2017 in both basins. The seasonal precipitation results showed a good agreement with the observations, which is about 86.3% and 98.9% in Han-River basin and Geum-River basin, respectively. Similarly, for the extreme rainfalls at sub-daily scale, the results showed a good correspondence between the observed and simulated rainfalls with a range of 65.9~99.7%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed model could be used to better consider climate variability at multiple time scales.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.99-125
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• 2013

Renewable energy industry not only has a promising future but also has more risk than conventional energy industry because of its characteristics. Therefore, in this study, an analysis of domestic renewable energy company risk has been performed. The risk of domestic wind and photovoltaic energy companies has been analyzed by using time varying beta model. The model has been constructed based on risk factors like firm size, firm diversification index, domestic installation, and so on. The principal result of analysis can be summarized as follows. First, risk factors affect domestic renewable energy companies have been discovered. Variables like firm size, growth rate of debt ratio, firm diversification index are statistically significant. I found that large firms are less riskier than small firms. It is also confirmed that companies with high diversification index and high debt ratio have high risk. Second, I got the result that policy factors like domestic renewable energy installation and government R&D expenditure could decrease risk of domestic renewable energy company. Third, relative sensitivity of each risk factor have been discovered. The effect of each variable gets bigger in this order: growth rate of domestic installation, firm size or diversification index, growth rate of debt ratio, growth rate of government R&D expenditure.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.8 no.6 s.40
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• pp.73-80
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• 2004

A nonlinear time-domain system identification algorithm using measured acceleration data is developed for structural damage assessment. To take account of nonlinear behavior of structural systems, an output error between measured and computed acceleration increments has been defined and a constrained nonlinear optimization problem is solved for optimal structural parameters. The algorithm estimates time-varying properties of stiffness and damping parameters. Nonlinear response of restoring force of a structural system is recovered by using the estimated time-varying structural properties and computed displacement by Newmark-$\beta$ method. In the recovery, no pre-defined model for inelastic behavior has been assumed. In developing the algorithm, noise and incomplete measurement in space and state have been considered. To examine the developed algorithm, numerical simulation and laboratory experimental studies on a three-story shear building have been carried out.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.34 no.7
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• pp.257-266
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• 1985

A new method for the artificial beta cell which can be used to control the hyperglycemia in diabetic patients was represented. The relationship between the insulin infusion rate and the blood glucose concentration was described by the second order ARMA model, and the time varying parameters were identified by exponentially weighted least squares estimator. The design of controller was based on the pole assignment self tuning altorithm with discrete blood sampling and the constraints of input and output responsse rate were considered. The results of animal experiments show that this method may be a fruitful approach for regulating the blood glucose level. We expect that this device can be used as both therapeutic and research tools providing that its stability and reliability are improved a little more.