• 제목/요약/키워드: Time uncertainty analysis

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TPM에서 퍼지 OEE 모형의 개발 및 분석 (Development and Analysis of Fuzzy Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) in TPM)

  • 최성운
    • 한국경영공학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.87-103
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    • 2018
  • This paper introduces the method to develop two main types of the fuzzy OEE (Overall Equipment Effectiveness) models via triangular membership function for measuring uncertainty. The fuzzy OEE includes model type 1 and model type 2. The model type 1 is used when the theoretical machine speed only reflects the time loss whereas model type 2 is used when the actual machine speed reflects both time and speed loss. Model type 2 has shown to perform a lower availability rate and a higher performance rate compared to model type 1. In addition, the fuzzy UPH (Unit Per Hour) which is derived from using the fuzzy OEE is presented to satisfy demand uncertainty. The fuzzy UPH can easily measure the fuzzy tact time and cycle time by reciprocating itself. Finally, this study demonstrates the fuzzy OEE models using IVIFS (Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set) based on the characterization via membership function, non-membership function and hesitant function. For the purpose of analyzing the fuzzy system OEE, the OEE for each machine of plant structure is considered triangular interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number. Regardless of plant structure, the validity degree of fuzzy membership function of system OEE decreases when the number of machine with worst value of the validity degree increases. Corresponding examples are presented in this paper for practitioner to understand the applicability and practicability of the proposed fuzzy OEE methods.

Dynamic Interaction between Conditional Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty of Bangladesh

  • ALI, Mostafa;CHOWDHURY, Md. Ali Arshad
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.

The Effect of Trade Agreements on Korea's Bilateral Trade Volume: Mitigating the Impact of Economic Uncertainty in Trading Countries

  • Heedae Park;Jiyoung An
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.153-166
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This research empirically analyzes the influence of economic policy uncertainty and free trade agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade volumes between Korea and its trading partners. The study investigates whether fluctuations in the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI) for both Korea and its trading partners significantly impact trade volumes and whether the implementation of FTAs mitigates these effects. Design/methodology - The study employs dynamic panel data analysis using the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimation method to achieve its research objectives. It utilizes country-month-level panel data, including the EPUI, trade volume between Korea and its trading partner countries, and other pertinent variables. The use of system GMM allows for the control of potential endogeneity issues and the incorporation of country-specific and time-specific effects. Findings - The analysis yields significant results regarding the impact of economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports and imports, particularly before the implementation of FTAs. An increase in the EPUI of trading partners leads to a notable increase in Korea's exports to them. Conversely, an increase in Korea's EPUI negatively affects its imports from trading partners. However, post-FTA implementation, the influence of each country's EPUI on trade volume is neutralized, with no significant difference observed. Originality/value - This research contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the interaction effects between economic policy uncertainty and FTAs on bilateral trade volumes. The study's uniqueness lies in its examination of how FTAs mitigate the impact of economic uncertainty on trade relations between countries. The findings underscore the importance of trade agreements as mechanisms to address economic risks and promote international trade relations. In a world where global market uncertainties persist, these insights can aid policymakers in Korea and other countries in enhancing their trade cooperation strategies and navigating challenges posed by evolving economic landscapes.

New GPU computing algorithm for wind load uncertainty analysis on high-rise systems

  • Wei, Cui;Luca, Caracoglia
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.461-487
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) has become a competitive computing technology in comparison with the standard Central Processing Unit (CPU) technology due to reduced unit cost, energy and computing time. This paper describes the derivation and implementation of GPU-based algorithms for the analysis of wind loading uncertainty on high-rise systems, in line with the research field of probability-based wind engineering. The study begins by presenting an application of the GPU technology to basic linear algebra problems to demonstrate advantages and limitations. Subsequently, Monte-Carlo integration and synthetic generation of wind turbulence are examined. Finally, the GPU architecture is used for the dynamic analysis of three high-rise structural systems under uncertain wind loads. In the first example the fragility analysis of a single degree-of-freedom structure is illustrated. Since fragility analysis employs sampling-based Monte Carlo simulation, it is feasible to distribute the evaluation of different random parameters among different GPU threads and to compute the results in parallel. In the second case the fragility analysis is carried out on a continuum structure, i.e., a tall building, in which double integration is required to evaluate the generalized turbulent wind load and the dynamic response in the frequency domain. The third example examines the computation of the generalized coupled wind load and response on a tall building in both along-wind and cross-wind directions. It is concluded that the GPU can perform computational tasks on average 10 times faster than the CPU.

RCB법에 의한 원통형 플런지 연삭공정의 싸이클 시간 감소에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Cycle Time Reduction of Cylindrical Plunge Grinding Process with Recursive Constraint Bounding Method)

  • 최성주
    • 한국생산제조학회지
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    • 제6권1호
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    • pp.34-44
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    • 1997
  • This study presents the recursive constraint bounding(RCB) method to reduce the cycle time in internal cylindrical plunge grinding process. This method can cope with process noise as well as modeling bias. The main features of RCB method are its utilization of measurements at the end of each cycle and its use of monotonicity analysis for determining the extremes of bias and noise. This method is investigated in simulation and evaluated by experiment in internal cylindrical plunge grinding operation. The results from simulation and experiment show that it is effective in reducing cycle time in spite of modeling uncertainty in the forms of process noise and modeling bias.

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Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Sample-Time Error on High Jitter of Samplers

  • Cho, Chihyun;Lee, Joo-Gwang;Kang, Tae-Weon;Kang, No-Weon
    • Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.169-174
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we propose an estimation method using multiple in-phase and quadrature (IQ) signals of different frequencies to evaluate the sample-time errors in the sampling oscilloscope. The estimator is implemented by ODRPACK, and a novel iteration scheme is applied to achieve fast convergence without any prior information. Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to confirm the proposed method. It clearly shows that the multiple IQ approach achieves more accurate results compared to the conventional method. Finally, the criteria for the frequency selection and the signal capture time are investigated.

Uncertain Rule-based Fuzzy Technique: Nonsingleton Fuzzy Logic System for Corrupted Time Series Analysis

  • Kim, Dongwon;Park, Gwi-Tae
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.361-365
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we present the modeling of time series data which are corrupted by noise via nonsingleton fuzzy logic system. Nonsingleton fuzzy logic system (NFLS) is useful in cases where the available data are corrupted by noise. NFLS is a fuzzy system whose inputs are modeled as fuzzy number. The abilities of NFLS to approximate arbitrary functions, and to effectively deal with noise and uncertainty, are used to analyze corrupted time series data. In the simulation results, we compare the results of the NFLS approach with the results of using only a traditional fuzzy logic system.

점추정법을 이용한 평면파괴의 파괴확률 신정 (Evaluation of Failure Probability for Planar Failure Using Point Estimate Method)

  • Park, Hyuck-Jin
    • 터널과지하공간
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2002
  • 최근 들어 확률론적 해석 방법이 암반사면공학에서 많이 사용되고 있으며 이는 불연속면과 암반의 지질학적 및 지반공학적 특성에 불확실성이 포함되며 이러한 불확실성에 의해 해석결과에 영향을 미치고 있기 때문이다. 암반사면의 안정성 해석에서 주로 사용되고 있는 전통적인 결정론적인 해석에서는 이러한 불확실성을 해석에 고려하기 어려운 반면 확률론적 해석에서는 불확실성을 수량화하여 해석에 고려할 수 있다는 장점을 가지고 있다. 이러한 확률론적 해석방법으로는 몬테카를로 방법이 주로 사용되고 있으나 방법은 파괴확률을 획득하기 위하여 많은 반복된 계산이 요구되며 따라서 많은 시간과 노력이 필요하다는 단점을 가지고 이다. 반면 본 연구에서 제안된 점추정법은 확률변수의 통계적 파라미터, 즉, 평균과 표준편차만을 이용하여 단순한 계산을 통해 파괴확률을 구할 수 있는 장점을 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 점추정법을 이용하여 평면파괴의 파괴확률을 산정하였으며 이를 몬테카를로 방법과 비교해 보았다.

잡음 전력의 불확실성이 존재하는 환경에서 단일 임계값을 사용하는 에너지 검파 기반 협력 스펙트럼 감지의 성능 분석 (Performance Analysis of an Energy Detection Based Cooperative Spectrum Sensing with a Single Threshold in the Presence of Noise Uncertainty)

  • 임창헌
    • 한국전자파학회논문지
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    • 제23권12호
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    • pp.1406-1411
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    • 2012
  • 에너지 검파 기반 스펙트럼 감지 방식은 잡음 전력에 대한 불확실성에 취약한 것으로 알려져 있다. 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 방안 중의 하나로 협력 스펙트럼 감지 기술을 함께 사용하는 방안이 제안된 바 있다. 그러나 아직까지 페이딩 채널 환경에서 이 방식에 대한 성능 분석이 발표된 바가 없다. 본 논문에서는 에너지 검파 기반 스펙트럼 감지 방식에 대한 이전 연구 결과를 토대로 에너지 검파 기반 협력 스펙트럼 감지 방식에 대한 수학적 분석 결과를 제시하고자 한다. 분석 결과에 따르면 잡음 전력에 대한 불확실성이 존재할 때는 스펙트럼 감지 시간이 늘어나거나 OR 융합 방식의 협력 스펙트럼 감지에 참여하는 2차 사용자가 많아질수록 오경보 확률과 검파 확률이 높아진다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

인터넷 소비자의 구매지연행동에 영향을 미치는 요인 : 상황적 요인과 지각된 불확실성을 중심으로 (Factors Influencing Internet Consumer's Purchase Delay Behaviors : Focusing on Situational Factors and Perceived Uncertainty)

  • 김종욱;서상혁
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제14권7호
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    • pp.407-426
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 인터넷 소비자의 구매지연행동에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고자 하였고, 인터넷 소비자의 상황적 요인과 지각된 불확실성이 구매지연행동에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 서울 수도권 지역의 인터넷 소비자를 대상으로 설문조사를 하여 394부의 자료를 분석에 사용하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면 첫째, 전반적 구매지연에는 부정적 경험과 후회회피가 정(+)의 영향요인으로 나타났다. 결제단계 지연에는 시간압박성, 구매변경 가능성, 부정적 경험 및 후회회피가, 장바구니 포기에는 시간압박성과 부정적 경험, 후회회피가 정(+)의 영향을 미치고 있었다. 둘째, 전반적인 구매지연과 결제단계 지연에는 정보, 선호 및 심리불확실성이, 장바구니 포기에는 정보 및 심리 불확실성이 정(+)의 영향을 미치고 있었다. 본 연구는 인터넷 소비자의 구매지연행동의 상황적 요인과 지각된 불확실성을 분석함으로써 인터넷 분야 연구의 이론 확장 및 다양화에 기여하였고, 인터넷 쇼핑몰의 고객관리와 마케팅 전략에 유용한 자료를 제공한 의의가 있다.