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Evaluation of Failure Probability for Planar Failure Using Point Estimate Method  

Park, Hyuck-Jin (R&D division, Korea Infrastructure Safety and Technology Corporation)
Publication Information
Tunnel and Underground Space / v.12, no.3, 2002 , pp. 189-197 More about this Journal
Abstract
In recent years, the probabilistic analysis has been used in rock slope engineering. This is because uncertainty is pervasive in rock slope engineering and most geometric and geotechnical parameters of discontinuity and rock masses are involved with uncertainty. Whilst the traditional deterministic analysis method fails to properly deal with uncertainty, the probabilistic analysis has advantages quantifying the uncertainty in parameters. As a probabilistic analysis method, the Monte Carlo simulation has been used commonly. However, the Monte Carlo simulation requires many repeated calculations and therefore, needs much effort and time to calculate the probability of failure. In contrast, the point estimate method involves a simple calculation with moments for random variables. In this study the probability of failure in rock slope is evaluated by the point estimate method and the results are compared to the probability of failure obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.
Keywords
Monte Carlo Simulation; Point Estimate Method; Probability of Failure; Uncertainty;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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