• 제목/요약/키워드: The Estimated Number of High School Students

검색결과 15건 처리시간 0.02초

시계열 분석을 통한 시도별 고등학교 학생 수 예측 (An Analysis of the Estimated Number of High School Students between 2016 and 2020 by Time Series Analysis)

  • 임성범;박선형
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
    • /
    • 제16권12호
    • /
    • pp.735-748
    • /
    • 2016
  • 현재는 저출산 고령화 사회현상에 따라 한국의 교육환경이 급변하는 시점이다. 특히, 고등교육 시장에서 상당한 변화가 예상되는데 통계청의 보고에 따르면 2010년에서 2020까지 10년 동안 고등학생 수는 196만명에서 127만명으로 35% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 학생 수의 변화는 교원 수급문제와 직 간접적으로 연계되며, 이는 적정한 교육재정 배정 및 예산 확보와 함께 다시 학급 당 학생 수, 교사 1인당 주당 수업시수 등 교육의 양적 질적 부문에 매우 중요하게 영향을 미치게 된다. 이러한 상황에서 교육시스템 운용에 중요한 영향요인이며 결정요인으로 기능할 것으로 예상되는 재학 학생 수에 대한 정확한 예측모형의 제시는 향후 국가의 교육행정체제와 인사관리 방향성을 결정하는데 있어서 그 가치가 매우 높다고 사료된다. 이 연구에서는 시계열 분석기법의 특성 상 축적된 과거 데이터가 충분한 11개 시도의 고등학생 수 사례를 대상으로 한다. 주어진 실측 데이터에 대한 모형적합도 검정과 오차추정을 위해 다양한 시계열 예측모형과 오차 추정방식을 적용 하였다.

농촌지역 초·중등 교육시설에 대한 마을단위 접근성 평가 (Evaluation of Accessibility to Elementary and Secondary Educational Facilities on Village Level in Rural Areas)

  • 김솔희;김태곤;서교
    • 농촌계획
    • /
    • 제23권3호
    • /
    • pp.121-131
    • /
    • 2017
  • Although the educational facility are an important considerations on a social equity standpoint, educational environment in rural areas has been continuously deteriorated by numerous social problems such as decreasing birth rate and increasing of local school closing. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accessibility of educational environment in rural areas on village level. First, we evaluate physical accessibility based on legally defined commuting distance. Second, the implication of village population of potential accessibility is analyzed. Lastly, the facility centrality index of each village is estimated for assessing the relations of educational accessibility. The main results of this study are as follows; (1) The accessibility of most villages in Pyeongchang-gun is vulnerable that 81.10% for elementary school, 73.17% for middle school, and 82.32% for high school, respectively; (2) The average commuting distance per student considering estimated number of students for each educational facilities indicated 2.75km for elementary school, 4.37km for middle school, and 5.79km for high school; (3) the facility centrality index is highly correlated to educational facilities but not to village population.

대구·경북지역의 고등학교 3학년 학생수 추계 (Projections of the high-school graduate in Daegu·Gyoungbook)

  • 김종태
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제26권4호
    • /
    • pp.907-914
    • /
    • 2015
  • 저출산으로 인한 학생수의 감소는 교육 행정 정책에 있어서 매우 많은 변화들을 예고하고 있다. 본 연구는 2032년까지 정확한 학생 (인구) 수를 예측하기 위하여 연령 진급률 혹은 학년 진급률을 이용한 학생 (인구) 수를 추계하는 방법을 제시하는데 목적이 있다. 비례법을 이용한 이동평균비례법과 가중비례이동평균법이 인구추계의 방법으로 제시되었다. 제시된 방법들의 측정오차들에 대한 평균과 표준편차들을 모의실험을 통하여 구하였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 가중비례이동평균법과 이동평균비례법의 예측결과들은 낮게 추정되는 현상이 나타나고 있다. 이를 보완하여 대구 경북 지역의 고등학교 3학년 학생수를 추계하였다.

청소년들의 또래 흡연율 추정에 대한 관련 요인 (Factors Associated with Perceived Peer Smoking Prevalence among Adolescents)

  • 박순우;김종연;박정한;이상원
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • 제39권3호
    • /
    • pp.249-254
    • /
    • 2006
  • Objectives: This study was conducted to examine the factors related to the perceived peer smoking prevalence for adolescents. Methods: A self-administrated questionnaire was administered to 352 students in a technical high school in Kangwon Province in May, 2002. The questions included in the questionnaire were concerned with the estimated number of smokers among ten students of the same grade in their school, the sociodemographic characteristics, the smoking-related behaviors and attitudes, and the smoking-related environments. All the students had their expiratory carbon monoxide level measured with EC50 Micro-Smokerlyzer? to verify their smoking status. Multiple regression analysis was applied for data analysis using Windows SPSS 11.5. Results: The former and current smokers overestimated the peer smoking prevalence. Multiple regression analysis for estimating the peer smoking prevalence for the male showed that the perceived smoking prevalence was higher in the female students than in the male students, higher in those students whose mothers had a higher educational level, who had smoked more frequently, who had more best friends smoking, and who had a higher actual smoking rate of the class. For estimating the peer smoking prevalence for the female, the perceived smoking prevalence was higher in the female students than in the male students, higher in those who smoked more frequently, whose five best friends smoked, who had higher actual smoking rate of the class, and who had smoking siblings. Conclusions: This study showed that a higher perceived peer smoking rate is related with their own smoking history and smoking frequency, the smoking related environment, and gender. Smoking prevention and smoking cessation programs need to focus on correcting the falsely perceived smoking prevalence.

중고등학생의 볼거리 전파관리 현황과 불현성 감염률: 2007-2008 대구 볼거리 유행을 중심으로 (Mumps Transmission Control Status and Inapparent Infection Rate among Middle and High School Students during the 2007-2008 Mumps Outbreak in Daegu)

  • 김교현;김창휘;최보율;고운영;이동한;기모란
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • 제42권6호
    • /
    • pp.408-415
    • /
    • 2009
  • Objectives : This study was performed to investigate the mumps transmission control status and inapparent infection rate among middle and high school students in Daegu City during a mumps outbreak. Methods : Nine schools (two middle schools and seven high schools), which reported a number of mumps cases between 2007 and 2008 were selected for investigation. During March-May 2008, a standard questionnaire was distributed to gather information about case identification, instructed isolation measure, isolation status of mumps cases and related factors, and outdoor activities of nonisolated mumps case. Inapparent infection rate was estimated by serum mumps IgM and IgG antibodies status and self-reported mumps symptoms in three of the nine schools. Results : Among 2,560 respondents, more than half of students answered that they did not receive instructions in mumps transmission control measures during the outbreak. Among the 327 mumps cases identified by the questionnaire, 131 cases (40.1%) were considered as isolated and the isolation rates were significantly different among schools, grades, and gender. Of the non-isolated cases, 88.3% continued attending school. Inapparent mumps infection rates were between 56.3% and 70.2%. Conclusions : Mumps transmission control was inadequate to control the mumps outbreak. Although high inapparent infection rate would mitigate the transmission control effect of case isolation, this measure is fundamental for infection control. The reasons of this inadequate status need to be explored to develop an effective intervention strategy.

우리글 읽기에서 중학생들의 지각폭 연구 (The perceptual span of Junior-high school students in Korean reading)

  • 최소영;고성룡
    • 인지과학
    • /
    • 제25권3호
    • /
    • pp.189-210
    • /
    • 2014
  • 안구운동추적 연구에서 지각폭의 크기를 파악하는 문제는 오랜 관심사였으며, 표기 체계나 읽기 기술의 발달 등이 지각폭의 크기에 영향을 미칠 수 있다고 알려져 있다. 본 연구는 우리글 읽기에서 대학생들의 지각폭을 알아본 최소영, 고성룡(2009)의 조건, 방법 및 문장 자극 등을 참조하여 중학생들의 지각폭을 측정하였다. 실험 1은 창의 크기를 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15자로 조작하여 창이 없는 통제 조건과 수행을 비교하였다. 실험 결과, 읽기율 측정치에서는 9자 조건에서부터 대체로 실험 조건과 통제 조건 간의 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났으며, 고정 수에서 5자, 도약 거리에서 9자, 고정 시간에서 9자에서 통제 조건과의 차이가 확인되었다. 실험 2는 지각폭의 비대칭성에 근거하여 고정점을 기준으로 좌측의 지각폭 크기를 알아보기 위해 고정 좌측의 창 크기를 0, 1, 2, 3, 4자로 조작하였다. 실험 결과, 도약 거리를 제외한 읽기율, 고정 수, 고정 시간등의 모든 측정치에서 0자 조건에서만 통제 조건인 전체 조건과의 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 위 결과를 바탕으로 본 연구는 중학생들의 지각폭을 여러 지표에서 두드러지는 왼쪽으로 1자, 오른쪽으로 4자로 추정하였다.

도시 초·중·고교 학생 시력저하 및 굴절이상에 관한 보건조사 (A Survey of the Visual Impairment and the Refractive Errors in Urban School Children in Korea)

  • 구본술;김재찬;양한남
    • 한국학교보건학회지
    • /
    • 제1권1호
    • /
    • pp.103-113
    • /
    • 1988
  • The analysis of the visual impairment and refractive errors among 4,004 school children in Seoul in 1986 with ancilliary questionnaire on various socio-environmental and visual factors was conducted. The number of the student with subnormal vision (0.7 or less) was 1,552 (38,8 %), and the rate of subnormal vision was increased with the higher grading of the school classes. Rate of myopes among the 1,552 students vision 0.7 or less consists of 52 % in primary school, 83.5 % in middle school, and 94 % in high school, and they were increased with the higher grading of the school class. The acutest increase of rates were observed at the stages of 2nd year class of male, and 1st year class of female at the middle school. Among the glasses-wearer of myopic students of vision 0.5 or less, the rate of adequately corrected cases was 42.5 %, whereas the overcorrected in 6.8 %, and undercorrected in 49.3 %. The main reasons of glasses negligence among the non-possessor of glasses with the vision of 0.5 or less were indicated in prominence of numbers of' "no complaints without glasses" (42 %). "unawareness of visual disturbance" (20%), "annoyance with wearing glasses" (13.4%), and "no permission from parents" (11.5 %) rather than the "economical reasons". The amblyopic components were estimated 126 cases (3.2%) in combination of refractive errors. According to the analysis of ancilliary questionnaire, the-conclusion with the statistical significance was that the myopization of the children's eyes appeared susceptible with a number of socio-environmental factors including the eating habits, length of T.V. watching period and distance, reading distance and type of illumination during near work, and school achievement. The possibility of prevention in some extents of progress of the myopia following the improvement of the relevant environmental factors in younger stage of children would be considered as deducible one.

  • PDF

국교 5년생의 체격에 따른 인구학적, 생화학적 요인 및 인성과 기타 요인에 대한 연구 (A Study on Anthropometric Data of 5th Grade Students with Demographic, Biochemical and Personality Factors)

  • 문현경
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • 제21권4호
    • /
    • pp.213-222
    • /
    • 1988
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate physical condition, physical fitness, sociodemographic factors, biochemical factors and personality factors of 5th grade students of elementary school. The number of students surveyed was 760 from each school of urban, middle and rural areas. All data analysis was done by BMI group which is based on previous study. 1) The children whose parents were on low education level and mother had a job had lower BMI values than others. Nine percent of male and 21% of female subjects skipped breakfast almost everyday. The 21.7% of all subjects regularly took nutritive pills, which had no difference in various BMI groups. 2) The physical condition of children had a high correlation with that of parents. 3) The physical fitness in BMI 5 groups was weaker than other groups, especially in male. 4) The contents of blood hemoglobin, cholesterol and glucose and hematocrit value were estimated. In female, the values of hemoglobin content and hematocrit had significant difference between BMI groups, but there are no trends. 5) The impulsiveness of male was the highest in BMI 1 group and the lowest in BMI 5 group among 5 groups. Besides, general activity, reflectivity and sociality in BMI 5 group had a low level. In female, personality factors except sociality didn't show any considerable difference.

  • PDF

Monte-Carlo 모의실험을 이용한 초·중·고등학교의 환기부족 평가 (Evaluation of Ventilation Deficiecy in Elementary, Middle, and High Schools using Monte Carlo Simulation)

  • 최영태;박진현;김은채;류현수;김동준;민기홍;정다영;우병렬;조만수;양원호
    • 한국환경보건학회지
    • /
    • 제46권6호
    • /
    • pp.627-635
    • /
    • 2020
  • Objectives: Indoor air quality has become more important aspeople spend most of their times indoors. Since students spend most of their times at home or at school, they are more likely to be exposed to indoor air pollutants. Ventilation in school classrooms can affect health and learning performance. In this study, ventilation deficiency was evaluated in school classrooms using Monte Carlo simulation. Methods: This study used sensor-based monitoring for six months to measure carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in classrooms in elementary, middle, and high schools. The volume of the classroom and the number of students were investigated, and the students' body surface area was used to calculate the CO2 emission rate. The distribution of ventilation rates was estimated by measured CO2 concentration and a mass-balance model using Monte Carlo simulation. Results: In the elementary, middle, and high schools, the average CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm, indicating that the ventilation rates were insufficient. The ventilation rates were deficient from July to August and in December, but showed relatively high ventilation rates in October. Forty-three percent of elementary schools, 56% of middle schools, and 62% of high schools showed insufficient ventilation rates. Conclusions: The ventilation rates calculated in elementary, middle and high schools were found to be quite insufficient. Therefore, proper management is needed to overcome the lack of ventilation and improve air quality.

학령인구 감소에 따른 지역별 대입지원자 감소에 대한 예측연구 (A research for forecasting of rate of university quota according to the reducing of young generation)

  • 김기환;이창호;최보승
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제26권6호
    • /
    • pp.1175-1188
    • /
    • 2015
  • 20년 이상 유지된 낮은 합계출산율은 학령인구 감소로 이어져 고등학교 졸업자 수가 급격히 감소하는 상황에 직면하게 되었고, 교육부는 2014년 1월 향 후 10년간 약 16만 명에 해당하는 대학 입학정원을 강제로 감축하는 대학 구조개혁 추진 계획을 발표였다. 대학의 정원감축은 피할 수 없는 문제이지만, 대학 구조개혁 추진계획의 주된 근거로 교육부가 제시한 것은 통계청의 18세 전국 장래 추계인구와 2014년 전국단위 대학정원의 비교자료뿐이다. 대학정원의 감축이 학생, 대학, 지역경제까지 큰 파장을 미치는 것임을 고려할 때, 교육부의 근거가 세밀하지 못한 것에 아쉬움이 따를 수밖에 없다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 고3 수험생, 재수생을 포함하는 대학수학능력시험 응시자를 16개 시도 별로 2032년까지 전망하고 지역별 특성을 비교하였다. 16개 시도 별 현재의 대학정원이 2032년까지 계속된다는 가정 아래서 16개 시도 별 대학수학능력시험 응시자 전망결과를 이용하여 지역별 대학 충원율을 산출을 시도하였으나, 수험생의 지역 간 이동을 반영할 수 없어 현실적인 전망결과를 산출하지 못하였다. 이 문제의 해결을 위하여 본 연구에서는 2014학년도 대학배치표 상의 학과순위가 계속 유지된다는 가정에서 전체 일반대학 7,277개 학과 순위를 추정하고, 이 학과들의 정원을 전체 대학 정원에서 차감해 가는 방법으로 지역별 대학 충원율을 2032년까지 산출하였다. 16개 시도 별로 산출된 대학 충원율은 전국단위로 보았을 때보다 지역별 특성과 문제점을 좀 더 확연하게 보여주었다.