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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2015.26.4.907

Projections of the high-school graduate in Daegu·Gyoungbook  

Kim, Jongtae (Department of Computing & Statistics, Daegu University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.26, no.4, 2015 , pp. 907-914 More about this Journal
Abstract
Reduction in the number of students due to the low birth rate has notice very many changes in the national education policies. The purpose of this study is to propose a method for estimation of the number of students (the population) by age or grade promotion rate of progression rate to estimate the exact number of students (the population) by 2032. It was suggested the nth moving average proportional method and the weighted proportional moving average method as the method of population projections. It presents the means and standard deviations of the measurement errors of the suggested methods by Monte Carlo simulation. Measured in this study are predicted result was a phenomenon is estimated lower than the actual value.
Keywords
Educational statistical services; nth moving average proportional method; population projections; the weighted proportional moving average;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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