• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Probability Theory

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Reliability-based fragility analysis of nonlinear structures under the actions of random earthquake loads

  • Salimi, Mohammad-Rashid;Yazdani, Azad
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.75-84
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    • 2018
  • This study presents the reliability-based analysis of nonlinear structures using the analytical fragility curves excited by random earthquake loads. The stochastic method of ground motion simulation is combined with the random vibration theory to compute structural failure probability. The formulation of structural failure probability using random vibration theory, based on only the frequency information of the excitation, provides an important basis for structural analysis in places where there is a lack of sufficient recorded ground motions. The importance of frequency content of ground motions on probability of structural failure is studied for different levels of the nonlinear behavior of structures. The set of simulated ground motion for this study is based on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. It is demonstrated that the scenario events identified by the seismic risk differ from those obtained by the disaggregation of seismic hazard. The validity of the presented procedure is evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulation.

Reliability Analysis of Frame Strctures (뼈대구조의 신뢰성 해석)

  • 이정재;고재군;김한중
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.116-127
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    • 1994
  • A reliability analysis model for the frame structure which grafts the discretized ideal plastic method to the stochastic finite element method is introduced. The proposed method simmulates realistically the sequencial occurrence of plastic hinges and yields the probability of failure directly from the geometrical and material properties of a frame structure. The presented method can also take into account the uncertainties inherent in loads and resisten- ces through the stochastic finite element technique. The analysis results are compared with those of the Monte Carlo Simmulation, the Bound Theory, and the fs-unzipping method, and show good agreement.

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DEPENDENCE IN M A MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC PROCESSES

  • KIM, TAE-SUNG;BAEK, JONG-IL
    • Honam Mathematical Journal
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 1993
  • In this paper we present of a class infinite M A (moving-average) sequences of multivariate random vectors. We use the theory of positive dependence to show that in a variety of cases the classes of M A sequences are associated. We then apply the association to establish some probability bounds and moment inequalities for multivariate processes.

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Stochastic interpolation of earthquake ground motions under spectral uncertainties

  • Morikawa, Hitoshi;Kameda, Hiroyuki
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.839-851
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    • 1997
  • Closed-form solutions are analytically derived for stochastic properties of earthquake ground motion fields, which are conditioned by an observed time series at certain observation sites and are characterized by spectra with uncertainties. The theoretical framework presented here can estimate not only the expectations of such simulated earthquake ground motions, but also the prediction errors which offer important information for the field of engineering. Before these derivations are made, the theory of conditional random fields is summarized for convenience in this study. Furthermore, a method for stochastic interpolation of power spectra is explained.

Structural Aspects in the Theory of Random Walk

  • Heyer, H.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.118-130
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    • 1982
  • Random walks as specia Markov stochastic processes have received particular attention in recent years. Not only the applicability of the theory already developed but also its extension within the frame work of probability measures on algebraic-topological structures such as semigroups, groups and linear spaces became a new challenge for research work in the field. At the same time new insights into classical problems were obtained which in various cases lead to a more efficient presentation of the subject. Consequently the teaching of random walks at all levels should profit from the recent development.

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Stochastic buckling quantification of porous functionally graded cylindrical shells

  • Trinh, Minh-Chien;Kim, Seung-Eock
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.44 no.5
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    • pp.651-676
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    • 2022
  • Most of the experimental, theoretical, and numerical studies on the stability of functionally graded composites are deterministic, while there are full of complex interactions of variables with an inherently probabilistic nature, this paper presents a non-intrusive framework to investigate the stochastic nonlinear buckling behaviors of porous functionally graded cylindrical shells exposed to inevitable source-uncertainties. Euler-Lagrange equations are theoretically derived based on the three variable refined shear deformation theory. Closed-form solutions for the shell buckling loads are achieved by solving the deterministic eigenvalue problems. The analytical results are verified with numerical results obtained from finite element analyses that are conducted in the commercial software ABAQUS. The non-intrusive framework is completed by integrating the Monte Carlo simulation with the verified closed-form solutions. The convergence studies are performed to determine the effective pseudorandom draws of the simulation. The accuracy and efficiency of the framework are verified with statistical results that are obtained from the first and second-order perturbation techniques. Eleven cases of individual and compound uncertainties are investigated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to figure out the five cases that have profound perturbative effects on the shell buckling loads. Complete probability distributions of the first three critical buckling loads are completely presented for each profound uncertainty case. The effects of the shell thickness, volume fraction index, and stochasticity degree on the shell buckling load under compound uncertainties are studied. There is a high probability that the shell has non-unique buckling modes in stochastic environments, which should be known for reliable analysis and design of engineering structures.

Development of New Management Prediction Support System based on Non-stochastic Model

  • Kaino, Toshihiro;Hirota, Kaoru;Mitsuta, Akimichi;Miura, Yasuyuki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.7-10
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    • 2003
  • In the field of financial technology, it is the U.S. initiative, and Japan is obliged to flattery in many respect. Currently Japan is in a too much defenseless situation that the economic structure is based on U.S. theory, In the conventional stochastic theory, it is also face that the prediction sometimes does not hit in the actual problem because it assumes a known probability distribution, none of which illustrates the real situation. A new research and development of management prediction support system is proposed based on fuzzy measures, that deals with the ambiguous, subjective evaluation by the people living in the real world well. Especially, the system will support venture, small and medium companies.

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Earthquake response spectra estimation of bilinear hysteretic systems using random-vibration theory method

  • Yazdani, Azad;Salimi, Mohammad-Rashid
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.1055-1067
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    • 2015
  • A theoretical procedure to estimate spectral displacement of a hysteretic oscillator with bilinear stiffness excited by band-limited excitation is presented. The stochastic method of ground-motion simulation is combined with the random vibration theory to compute linear and nonlinear structural response. The response is obtained by computing the root-mean-square oscillator response using dissipation energy balancing by integrating over all energy levels of system weighting with the stationary probability density of the energy. The results are presented in a convenient form, and the accuracy of the procedure is assessed by comparison with results obtained with the time-domain method using the recorded data. The model shows little or no bias at the structural period of engineering interest.

Numerical analysis of quantization-based optimization

  • Jinwuk Seok;Chang Sik Cho
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.367-378
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    • 2024
  • We propose a number-theory-based quantized mathematical optimization scheme for various NP-hard and similar problems. Conventional global optimization schemes, such as simulated and quantum annealing, assume stochastic properties that require multiple attempts. Although our quantization-based optimization proposal also depends on stochastic features (i.e., the white-noise hypothesis), it provides a more reliable optimization performance. Our numerical analysis equates quantization-based optimization to quantum annealing, and its quantization property effectively provides global optimization by decreasing the measure of the level sets associated with the objective function. Consequently, the proposed combinatorial optimization method allows the removal of the acceptance probability used in conventional heuristic algorithms to provide a more effective optimization. Numerical experiments show that the proposed algorithm determines the global optimum in less operational time than conventional schemes.

Probability theory based fault detection and diagnosis of induction motor system (확률기법을 이용한 유도전동기의 고장진단 알고리즘 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Su;Cho, Hyun-Cheol;Song, Chang-Hwan;Lee, Kwon-Soon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.228-229
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents stochastic methodology based fault diction and diagnosis algorithm for induction motor systems. First, we construct probability distribution model from healthy motors and then probability distribution for faulty motors is recursively calculated by means of the proposed probability estimation. We measure motor current with hall sensors as system state. The estimated probability is compared to the model to generate a residue signal which is utilized for fault detection and diagnosis, that is, where a fault is occurred. We carry out real-time induction motor experiment to evaluate efficiency and reliability of the proposed approach.

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