• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제40권4호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2018

We estimate three continuous-time stochastic volatility models following the approach by Aït-Sahalia and Kimmel (2007) to compare the Korean and US stock markets. To do this, the Heston, GARCH, and CEV models are applied to the KOSPI 200 and S&P 500 Index. For the latent volatility variable, we generate and use the integrated volatility proxy using the implied volatility of short-dated at-the-money option prices. We conduct MLE in order to estimate the parameters of the stochastic volatility models. To do this we need the transition probability density function (TPDF), but the true TPDF is not available for any of the models in this paper. Therefore, the TPDFs are approximated using the irreducible method introduced in Aït-Sahalia (2008). Among three stochastic volatility models, the Heston model and the CEV model are found to be best for the Korean and US stock markets, respectively. There exist relatively strong leverage effects in both countries. Despite the fact that the long-run mean level of the integrated volatility proxy (IV) was not statistically significant in either market, the speeds of the mean reversion parameters are statistically significant and meaningful in both markets. The IV is found to return to its long-run mean value more rapidly in Korea than in the US. All parameters related to the volatility function of the IV are statistically significant. Although the volatility of the IV is more elastic in the US stock market, the volatility itself is greater in Korea than in the US over the range of the observed IV.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.123-135
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• 2016

This article deals with the pricing of Asian options under a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model as well as a stochastic elasticity of variance (SEV) model. The CEV and SEV models are underlying asset price models proposed to overcome shortcomings of the constant volatility model. In particular, the SEV model is attractive because it can characterize the feature of volatility in risky situation such as the global financial crisis both quantitatively and qualitatively. We use an asymptotic expansion method to approximate the no-arbitrage price of an arithmetic average Asian option under both CEV and SEV models. Subsequently, the zero and non-zero constant leverage effects as well as stochastic leverage effects are compared with each other. Lastly, we investigate the SEV correction effects to the CEV model for the price of Asian options.

• Korea-Australia Rheology Journal
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.161-174
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• 2002

A new technique for numerical calculation of viscoelastic flow based on the combination of Neural Net-works (NN) and Brownian Dynamics simulation or Stochastic Simulation Technique (SST) is presented in this paper. This method uses a "universal approximator" based on neural network methodology in combination with the kinetic theory of polymeric liquid in which the stress is computed from the molecular configuration rather than from closed form constitutive equations. Thus the new method obviates not only the need for a rheological constitutive equation to describe the fluid (as in the original Calculation Of Non-Newtonian Flows: Finite Elements St Stochastic Simulation Techniques (CONNFFESSIT) idea) but also any kind of finite element-type discretisation of the domain and its boundary for numerical solution of the governing PDE's. As an illustration of the method, the time development of the planar Couette flow is studied for two molecular kinetic models with finite extensibility, namely the Finitely Extensible Nonlinear Elastic (FENE) and FENE-Peterlin (FENE-P) models.P) models.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.488-488
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• 2015

Intermittent streamflow is common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid regions. To manage water resources of intermittent streamflows, stochactic simulation data is essential; however the seasonally stochastic modeling for intermittent streamflow is a difficult task. In this study, using the periodic Markov chain model, we simulate intermittent monthly streamflow for occurrence and the periodic gamma autoregressive and copula models for amount. The copula models were tested in a previous study for the simulation of yearly streamflow, resulting in successful replication of the key and operational statistics of historical data; however, the copula models have never been tested on a monthly time scale. The intermittent models were applied to the Colorado River system in the present study. A few drawbacks of the PGAR model were identified, such as significant underestimation of minimum values on an aggregated yearly time scale and restrictions of the parameter boundaries. Conversely, the copula models do not present such drawbacks but show feasible reproduction of key and operational statistics. We concluded that the periodic Markov chain based the copula models is a practicable method to simulate intermittent monthly streamflow time series.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.300-307
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• 2008

전력관리는 전력상태 전환과 시스템 부하 (workload)에 의존성이 있다. 시스템 모델은 전력상태 전환과 시스템 큐에 대한 추계적 모델들로 구성된다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 전력관리 기법을 위한 추계적 모델들을 개발한다. 추계적 프로세스에 기반한 전력관리 모델은 시스템 큐와 다양한 모델링 기능을 표현할 수 있는 페트리 네트의 확장형인 SRN (Stochastic Reward Nets)을 이용하여 개발된다. 적응적 타임아웃기반 전력관리 SRN 모델을 개발하고 기존 전력관리 기법인 greedy, N-Policy 기법과 전력소모 및 성능비교를 수행한다.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.97-109
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• 1998

In this paper, we propose a new approach to solve stochastic fluid flow models applied to the analysis of ceil loss of an ATM multiplexer. Existing stochastic fluid flow models have been analyzed by using linear differential equations. In case of large state space, however. analyzing stochastic fluid flow model without numerical errors is not easy. To avoid this numerical errors and to analyze stochastic fluid flow model with large state space. we develope a new computational algorithm. Instead of solving differential equations directly, this approach uses iterative and numerical method without calculating eigenvalues. eigenvectors and boundary coefficients. As a result, approximate solutions and upper and lower bounds are obtained. This approach can be applied to stochastic fluid flow model having general Markov chain structure as well as to the superposition of heterogeneous ON-OFF sources it can be extended to Markov process having non-exponential sojourn times.

• 한국정보통신학회논문지
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.2828-2835
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• 2015

본 논문에서는 다양한 다중화 모형과 논스톱 포워딩 기능이 네트워크 서비스의 가용도에 미치는 영향을 비교 분석한다. 다중화 모형 중 no redundancy, 2N redundancy, N-way redundancy, N-way active redundancy 모형에 대한 확률적 리워드 네트(Stochastic Reward Net, SRN) 모델을 설계하고, 각각의 모형에 대해 논스톱 포워딩 기능을 추가한 SRN 모델을 설계한다. 확률적 페트리 네트 패키지(Stochastic Petri Net Package, SPNP)를 활용하여 설계한 SRN 모델의 가용도를 구한다.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2005

Due to the importance of lead time demand in the design of inventory management systems, researchers and practitioners have paid continuous attention and a few analytic models using the compound distribution approach have been reported. However, since the nature of compound distributions is hardly amenable, the analytic models have been done by non‐recognition of the compound nature of some components to reduce the analytic task. This study concerns some of the important aspects in the analytic models. Through the theoretic examination of the analytic model approach and the comparison with the rigid compound stochastic process approach, this study clarifies the assumptions implicitly made by the analytic models and provides some precautions in using the analytic models. Illustrative examples are also presented.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시뮬레이션학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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• pp.129-134
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• 2003

In this paper, we determine optimal reduction in the lead time and setup cost for some stochastic inventory models. And we propose more general model that allow the backorder rate as a control variable. We first assume that the lead time demand follows a normal distribution. And we assume that the backorder rate is dependent on the length of lead time through the amount of shortages. The stochastic models analyzed in this paper are the classical continuous and periodic review policy models with a mixture of backorders and lost sales. For each of these models, we provide a sufficient conditions for the uniqueness of the optimal operating policy. We also develop algorithms for solving these models and provide illustrative numerical examples.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.807-815
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• 2008

A simple efficient method of spotting and recognizing hand gestures in video is presented using a network of hidden Markov models and dynamic programming search algorithm. The description starts from designing a set of isolated trajectory models which are stochastic and robust enough to characterize highly variable patterns like human motion, handwriting, and speech. Those models are interconnected to form a single big network termed a spotting network or a spotter that models a continuous stream of gestures and non-gestures as well. The inference over the model is based on dynamic programming. The proposed model is highly efficient and can readily be extended to a variety of recurrent pattern recognition tasks. The test result without any engineering has shown the potential for practical application. At the end of the paper we add some related experimental result that has been obtained using a different model - dynamic Bayesian network - which is also a type of stochastic model.