• Title/Summary/Keyword: Stochastic Effects

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실물옵션 모형을 이용한 RPS와 배출권거래제 연계의 신재생에너지 투자효과

  • Park, Ho-Jeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.301-319
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    • 2012
  • The primary purpose of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is to facilitate investment in renewable energy technology. Since emission trading program has similar purpose, it is conceivable to attempt to link RPS and emission trading program through interlinked markets. RPS in Korea with single REC and emission allowance markets has particular advantages for constructing linkages between two markets. This paper provides a real option model to examine investment effects of linkage of RPS to the trading program. Emission permit price and REC price are assumed to follow stochastic processes and renewable investment is irreversible. The result shows that linked market provides further incentive for renewable investment by raising managerial flexibility for power companies.

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Derivation of analytical fragility curves using SDOF models of masonry structures in Erzincan (Turkey)

  • Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh;Kadas, Koray;Askan, Aysegul;Erberik, M. Altug;Yakut, Ahmet
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.249-261
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    • 2020
  • Seismic loss estimation studies require fragility curves which are usually derived using ground motion datasets. Ground motion records can be either in the form of recorded or simulated time histories compatible with regional seismicity. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the use of alternative ground motion datasets (simulated and real) on the fragility curves. Simulated dataset is prepared considering regional seismicity parameters corresponding to Erzincan using the stochastic finite-fault technique. In addition, regionally compatible records are chosen from the NGA-West2 ground motion database to form the real dataset. The paper additionally studies the effects of hazard variability and two different fragility curve derivation approaches on the generated fragility curves. As the final step for verification purposes, damage states estimated for the fragility curves derived using alternative approaches are compared with the observed damage levels from the 1992 Erzincan (Turkey) earthquake (Mw=6.6). In order to accomplish all these steps, a set of representative masonry buildings from Erzincan region are analyzed using simplified structural models. The results reveal that regionally simulated ground motions can be used alternatively in fragility analyses and damage estimation studies.

The Effect of Directional Dispersion of Frequency Spectrum on the Joint Distribution of Wave Height, Period and Wave Direction (파고, 주기, 파향의 결합확율분포에 미치는 입사파랑의 방향분산성의 영향)

  • 권정곤
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.143-151
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    • 1990
  • The sediment transport in shallow water regions has been studied in various ways and, accordingly, many formulas have been proposed. However, when these formulas are applied practically in the field, they are not sufficient to fully estimate the sediment transport rate yet. The primary reason is how to take into account the effect of irregularities of field waves : wave heights, periods and directions. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate stochastic and kinematic characteristics of waves in three dimensional random seas in order to more accurately estimate it. In particular, the asymmetrical properties of directional spectrum become significant and play an important role in various phenomena in a shallow water region. In this study, their effects of incident waves the joint distribution of wave heights, periods and directions are investigated through field measurements.

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Life-cycle-cost optimization for the wind load design of tall buildings equipped with TMDs

  • Venanzi, Ilaria;Ierimonti, Laura;Caracoglia, Luca
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.379-392
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    • 2020
  • The paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-based optimization framework for wind-excited tall buildings equipped with Tuned Mass Dampers (TMDs). The objective is to minimize the Life-Cycle Cost that comprises initial costs of the structure, the control system and costs related to repair, maintenance and downtime over the building's lifetime. The integrated optimization of structural sections and mass ratio of the TMDs is carried out, leading to a set of Pareto optimal solutions. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is that, differently from the traditional optimal design approach, it allows to perform the unified design of both the structure and the control system in a Life Cycle Cost Analysis framework. The procedure quantifies wind-induced losses, related to structural and nonstructural damage, considering the stochastic nature of the loads (wind velocity and direction), the specificity of the structural modeling (e.g., non-shear-type vibration modes and torsional effects) and the presence of the TMDs. Both serviceability and ultimate limit states related to the structure and the TMDs' damage are adopted for the computation of repair costs. The application to a case study tall building allows to demonstrate the efficiency of the procedure for the integrated design of the structure and the control system.

Natural frequency of laminated composite plate resting on an elastic foundation with uncertain system properties

  • Lal, Achchhe;Singh, B.N.;Kumar, Rakesh
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.199-222
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    • 2007
  • Composite laminated structures supported on elastic foundations are being increasingly used in a great variety of engineering applications. Composites exhibit larger dispersion in their material properties compared to the conventional materials due to large number of parameters associated with their manufacturing and fabrication processes. And also the dispersion in elastic foundation stiffness parameter is inherent due to inaccurate modeling and determination of elastic foundation properties in practice. For a better modeling of the material properties and foundation, these are treated as random variables. This paper deals with effects of randomness in material properties and foundation stiffness parameters on the free vibration response of laminated composite plate resting on an elastic foundation. A $C^0$ finite element method has been used for arriving at an eigen value problem. Higher order shear deformation theory has been used to model the displacement field. A mean centered first order perturbation technique has been employed to handle randomness in system properties for obtaining the stochastic characteristic of frequency response. It is observed that small amount of variations in random material properties and foundation stiffness parameters significantly affect the free vibration response of the laminated composite plate. The results have been compared with those available in the literature and an independent Monte Carlo simulation.

Spatio-temporal dependent errors of radar rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation

  • Ko, Dasang;Park, Taewoong;Lee, Taesam;Lee, Dongryul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.164-164
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    • 2016
  • Radar rainfall estimates have been widely used in calculating rainfall amount approximately and predicting flood risks. The radar rainfall estimates have a number of error sources such as beam blockage and ground clutter hinder their applications to hydrological flood forecasting. Moreover, it has been reported in paper that those errors are inter-correlated spatially and temporally. Therefore, in the current study, we tested influence about spatio-temporal errors in radar rainfall estimates. Spatio-temporal errors were simulated through a stochastic simulation model, called Multivariate Autoregressive (MAR). For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo. The results indicated that spatio-temporal dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than spatial dependent errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of time correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of temporal correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results indicated that strong correlation caused a higher variation in peak discharge. This concluded that the effects on reducing temporal and spatial correlation must be taken in addition to correcting the biases in radar rainfall estimates. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant from a Strategic Research Project (Development of Flood Warning and Snowfall Estimation Platform Using Hydrological Radars), which was funded by the Korea Institute of Construction Technology.

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Finite element model updating of in-filled RC frames with low strength concrete using ambient vibration test

  • Arslan, Mehmet Emin;Durmus, Ahmet
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.111-127
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    • 2013
  • This paper describes effects of infill walls on behavior of RC frame with low strength, including numerical modeling, modal testing and finite-element model updating. For this purpose full scaled, one bay and one story RC frame is produced and tested for plane and brick in-filled conditions. Ambient-vibration testis applied to identify dynamic characteristics under natural excitations. Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition and Stochastic Subspace Identification methods are used to obtain experimental dynamic characteristics. A numerical modal analysis is performed on the developed two-dimensional finite element model of the frames using SAP2000 software to provide numerical frequencies and mode shapes. Dynamic characteristics obtained by numerical and experimental are compared with each other and finite element model of the frames are updated by changing some uncertain modeling parameters such as material properties and boundary conditions to reduce the differences between the results. At the end of the study, maximum differences in the natural frequencies are reduced on average from 34% to 9% and a good agreement is found between numerical and experimental dynamic characteristics after finite-element model updating. In addition, it is seen material properties are more effective parameters in the finite element model updating of plane frame. However, for brick in-filled frame changes in boundary conditions determine the model updating process.

Effect of non-stationary spatially varying ground motions on the seismic responses of multi-support structures

  • Xu, Zhaoheng;Huang, Tian-Li;Bi, Kaiming
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.82 no.3
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    • pp.325-341
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    • 2022
  • Previous major earthquakes indicated that the earthquake induced ground motions are typical non-stationary processes, which are non-stationary in both amplification and frequency. For the convenience of aseismic design and analysis, it usually assumes that the ground motions at structural supports are stationary processes. The development of time-frequency analysis technique makes it possible to evaluate the non-stationary responses of engineering structures subjected to non-stationary inputs, which is more general and realistic than the analysis method commonly used in engineering. In this paper, the wavelet-based stochastic vibration analysis methodology is adopted to calculate the non-stationary responses of multi-support structures. For comparison, the stationary response based on the standard random vibration method is also investigated. A frame structure and a two-span bridge are analyzed. The effects of non-stationary spatial ground motion and local site conditions are considered, and the influence of structural property on the structural responses are also considered. The analytical results demonstrate that the non-stationary spatial ground motions have significant influence on the response of multi-support structures.

Time-Varying Effects of Oil Shocks on the Korean Economy (한국경제에 미치는 유가충격의 시간-가변적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Cha, Kyungsoo
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.495-520
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    • 2018
  • Because of structural changes in the international oil market and the economy, it is widely recognized that the impact of oil shocks on the economy has weaken since the mid-1980s. This study tries to examine the validity of the recent perception about the relationship between oils shocks and the economy, estimating the time-varying effects of oil shocks on the Korean economy. The results show that the dynamic effects of oil shocks normalized to a one standard deviation has been relatively constant, in contrast to the recent perception and a number of existing studies. In addition, because the shape of impulse response functions at each point in time spanning from 1984:II to 2017:IV has not been changed significantly, it seems that the propagation mechanism of oil shocks also has not been substantially altered. These findings indicate that even though structural changes of the economy, such as the reduction in the share of oil consumption and the spread of high-efficiency energy technologies, have been rapidly progressed, it is not still enough to offset the negative effects of oil shocks. Rather, it seems that the recent perception about the shrinking effects of oil shocks is mainly due to the assumptions that do not reflect changes in the size of oil shocks. In particular, this problem appears more pronounced in the case of the typical a one standard deviation increase oil shock under homoskedasticity assumption, which is widely adopted in the most VAR analyses. Therefore, in estimating the effects of oil shocks on the economy, it is important to specify the correct model and normalization method, to reflect changes in the size of oil shocks.

The Spillover Effect of Public Hosing Policy on Rental Housing Market: The Case of Seoul, Korea (공공임대주택이 주변 전세시장에 미치는 효과: 서울시 장기전세주택(SHIFT)의 경우)

  • Yang, Jun-Seok
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.405-418
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    • 2017
  • SHIFT is public rental housing policy introduced by Seoul Metropolitan in 2007, which works as Chonsei(korean unique deposit rental system). This paper examines the effect of SHIFT on Chonsei prices of neighborhood apartments. To estimate the change in prices of Chonsei after the provision of SHIFT, I collect data on Chonsei prices of apartments within a 5km radius from the SHIFT housings. Summary of main results are following. Chonsei prices of the apartments within a 2-3km radius decreased by 4.4% after the provision of SHIFT housings. In contrast, when it comes to apartments within a 1-2km radius, I can't find the stochastic relationship between the provision of SHIFT hosing and price changes. This results can be explained by "Offset effects" caused by real estate development. Provision of SHIFT can sequentially induce nearby area's development, which plays a factor in the effect of price increases. And this offset effects varies in each apartment complex depending on demand for Chonsei and supply of the SHIFT.