• Title/Summary/Keyword: Square of mean of error

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Development of Bus Arrival Time Estimation Model by Unit of Route Group (노선그룹단위별 버스도착시간 추정모형 연구)

  • No, Chang-Gyun;Kim, Won-Gil;Son, Bong-Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2010
  • The convenient techniques for predicting the bus arrival time have used the data obtained from the buses belong to the same company only. Consequently, the conventional techniques have often failed to predict the bus arrival time at the downstream bus stops due to the lack of the data during congestion time period. The primary objective of this study is to overcome the weakness of the conventional techniques. The estimation model developed based on the data obtained from Bus Information System(BIS) and Bus management System(BMS). The proposed model predicts the bus arrival time at bus stops by using the data of all buses travelling same roadway section during the same time period. In the tests, the proposed model had a good accuracy of predicting the bus arrival time at the bus stops in terms of statistical measurements (e.g., root mean square error). Overall, the empirical results were very encouraging: the model maintains a prediction job during the morning and evening peak periods and delivers excellent results for the severely congested roadways that are of the most practical interest.

Improvement of COMS land surface temperature retrieval algorithm by considering diurnal variation of air temperature (기온의 일 변동을 고려한 COMS 지표면온도 산출 알고리즘 개선)

  • Choi, Youn-Young;Suh, Myoung-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.435-452
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    • 2016
  • Land Surface Temperature (LST) has been operationally retrieved from the Communication, Ocean, and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) data by the spilt-window method (CSW_v2.0) developed by Cho et al. (2015). Although the CSW_v2.0 retrieved the LST with a reasonable quality compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data, it showed a relatively poor performance for the strong inversion and lapse rate conditions. To solve this problem, the LST retrieval algorithm (CSW_v2.0) was updated using the simulation results of radiative transfer model (MODTRAN 4.0) by considering the diurnal variations of air temperature. In general, the upgraded version, CSW_v3.0 showed a similar correlation coefficient between the prescribed LSTs and retrieved LSTs (0.99), the relatively smaller bias (from -0.03 K to-0.012 K) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (from 1.39 K to 1.138 K). Particularly, CSW_v3.0 improved the systematic problems of CSW_v2.0 that were encountered when temperature differences between LST and air temperature are very large and/or small (inversion layers and superadiabatic lapse rates), and when the brightness temperature differences and surface emissivity differences were large. The bias and RMSE of CSW_v2.0 were reduced by 10-30% in CSW_v3.0. The indirect validation results using the MODIS LST data showed that CSW_3.0 improved the retrieval accuracy of LST in terms of bias (from -0.629 K to -0.049 K) and RMSE (from 2.537 K to 2.502 K) compared to the CSW_v2.0.

Applicability Evaluation for Discharge Model Using Curve Number and Convolution Neural Network (Curve Number 및 Convolution Neural Network를 이용한 유출모형의 적용성 평가)

  • Song, Chul Min;Lee, Kwang Hyun
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.114-125
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    • 2020
  • Despite the various artificial neural networks that have been developed, most of the discharge models in previous studies have been developed using deep neural networks. This study aimed to develop a discharge model using a convolution neural network (CNN), which was used to solve classification problems. Furthermore, the applicability of CNN was evaluated. The photographs (pictures or images) for input data to CNN could not clearly show the characteristics of the study area as well as precipitation. Hence, the model employed in this study had to use numerical images. To solve the problem, the CN of NRCS was used to generate images as input data for the model. The generated images showed a good possibility of applicability as input data. Moreover, a new application of CN, which had been used only for discharge prediction, was proposed in this study. As a result of CNN training, the model was trained and generalized stably. Comparison between the actual and predicted values had an R2 of 0.79, which was relatively high. The model showed good performance in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (0.84), the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) (0.63), and the root mean square error (24.54 ㎥/s).

Adaptive Discrete Wavelet Transform Based on Block Energy for JPEG2000 Still Images (JPEG2000 정지영상을 위한 블록 에너지 기반 적응적 이산 웨이블릿 변환)

  • Kim, Dae-Won
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 2007
  • The proposed algorithm in this paper is based on the wavelet decomposition and the energy computation of composed blocks so the amount of calculation and complexity is minimized by adaptively replacing the DWT coefficients and managing the resources effectively. We are now living in the world of a lot. of multimedia applications for many digital electric appliances and mobile devices. Among so many multimedia applications, the digital image compression is very important technology for digital cameras to store and transmit digital images to other sites and JPEG2000 is one of the cutting edge technology to compress still images efficiently. The digital cm technology is mainly using the digital image compression features so that those images could be efficiently saved locally and transferred to other sites without any losses. JPEG2000 standard is applicable for processing the digital images usefully to keep, send and receive through wired and/or wireless networks. The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is one of the main differences to the previous digital image compression standard such as JPEG, performing the DWT to the entire image rather than splitting into many blocks. Several digital images m tested with this method and restored to compare to the results of conventional DWT which shows that the proposed algorithm get the better result without any significant degradation in terms of MSE & PSNR and the number of zero coefficients when the energy based adaptive DWT is applied.

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Implementation of Gait Analysis System Based on Inertial Sensors (관성센서 기반 보행 분석 시스템 구현)

  • Cho, J.S.;Kang, S.I.;Lee, K.H.;Jang, S.H.;Kim, I.Y.;Lee, J.S.
    • Journal of rehabilitation welfare engineering & assistive technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we present an inertial sensor-based gait analysis system to measure and analyze lower-limb movements. We developed an integral AHRS(Attitude Heading Reference System) using a combination of rate gyroscope, accelerometer and magnetometer sensor signals. Several AHRS modules mounted on segments of the patient's body provide the quaternions representing the patient segments's orientation in space. And a method is also proposed for calculating three-dimensional inter-segment joint angle which is an important bio-mechanical measure for a variety of applications related to rehabilitation. To evaluate the performance of our AHRS module, the Vicon motion capture system, which offers millimeter resolution of 3D spatial displacements and orientations, is used as a reference. The evaluation resulted in a RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) of 1.08 and 1.72 degree in yaw and pitch angle. In order to evaluate the performance of our the gait analysis system, we compared the joint angle for the hip, knee and ankle with those provided by Vicon system. The result shows that our system will provide an in-depth insight into the effectiveness, appropriate level of care, and feedback of the rehabilitation process by performing real-time limb or gait analysis during the post-stroke recovery.

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The Study of Infinite NHPP Software Reliability Model from the Intercept Parameter using Linear Hazard Rate Distribution (선형위험률분포의 절편모수에 근거한 무한고장 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.278-284
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    • 2016
  • Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. In infinite failure NHPP software reliability models, the fault occurrence rates may have constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing pattern. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that the situation was reflected for the fault occurs in the repair time, were presented about comparing property. Commonly, the software model of the infinite failures using the linear hazard rate distribution software reliability based on intercept parameter was used in business economics and actuarial modeling, was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively large intercept parameter was appeared effectively form. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination. The linear hazard rate distribution model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 90% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative model could be confirmed. From this paper, the software developers have to consider intercept parameter of life distribution by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

Quantitative precipitation estimation of X-band radar using empirical relationship (경험적 관계식을 이용한 X밴드 레이더의 정량적 강우 추정)

  • Song, Jae In;Lim, Sanghun;Cho, Yo Han;Jeong, Hyeon Gyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2022
  • As the occurrences of flash floods have increased due to climate change, faster and more accurate precipitation observation using X-band radar has become important. Therefore, the Ministry of Environment installed two dual-pol X-band radars at Samcheok and Uljin. The radar data used in this study were obtained from two different elevation angles and composed to reduce the shielding effect. To obtain quantitative rainfall, quality control (QC), KDP retrieval, and Hybrid Surface Rainfall (HSR) methods were sequentially applied. To improve the accuracy of the quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) of the X-band radar, we retrieved parameters for the relationship between rainfall rate and specific differential phase, which is commonly called the R-KDP relationship; hence, an empirical approach was developed using multiple rain gauges for those two radars. The newly suggested relationship, R = 27.4K0.81DP, slightly increased the correlation coefficient by 1% more than the relationship suggested by the previous study. The root mean square error significantly decreased from 3.88 mm/hr to 3.68 mm/hr, and the bias of the estimated precipitation also decreased from -1.72 mm/hr to -0.92 mm/hr for overall cases, showing the improvement of the new method.

Developing volume equation of street tree and its carbon stock for urban forest in Seoul (서울시 가로수의 재적식 개발 및 탄소저장량 평가)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Kyeong Nam;Pyo, Jung Kee
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this paper is to develop volume equation of street tree and its carbon stock for urban forest in Seoul. To develop the volume equation by major species in Seoul, data for street trees were obtained from four-species (e.g. Gingko biloba, Platanus occidentalis, Zelkova serrata, and Metasequoia glyptostroboides), which accounted for 79% all street trees in Seoul. This study used a variable based on diameter on breast height and four equation for calculating volume. The coefficient of determination, bias, and root mean square error were used to evaluate the precision of four equations. From these methods, the most suitable equations for Platanus occidentalis was aDb, the other was aD+bD2; coefficient of determination upper on 0.873. From the volume equation developed in this research, the estimated carbon stock were derived as about 33,760tC for four-species of urban forest in Seoul. The results of this paper offered volume equation and carbon stock that present growth information for street trees in urban forestry and these can be made available for evaluating the management for carbon in settlement.

Estimation and assessment of long-term drought outlook information using the long-term forecasting data (장기예보자료를 활용한 장기 가뭄전망정보 산정 및 평가)

  • So, Jae-Min;Oh, Taesuk;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.10
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    • pp.691-701
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the long-term drought outlook information based on long-term forecast data for the 2015 drought event. In order to estimate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for different durations (3-, 6-, 9-, 12-months), we used the observation precipitation of 59 Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) sites, forecast and hindcast data of GloSea5. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and statistical analysis (Correlation Coefficient, CC; Root Mean Square Error, RMSE) were used to evaluate the utilization of drought outlook information for the forecast lead-times (1~6months). As a result of ROC analysis, ROC scores of SPI(3), SPI(6), SPI(9) and SPI(12) were estimated to be over 0.70 until the 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-months. The CC and RMSE values of SPI(3), SPI(6), SPI(9) and SPI(12) for forecast lead-time were estimated as (0.60, 0.87), (0.72, 0.95), (0.75, 0.95) and (0.77, 0.89) until the 2-, 4-, 5- and 6-months respectively.

Comparison Study on the Various Forms of Scale Parameter for the Nonstationary Gumbel Model (다양한 규모매개변수를 이용한 비정상성 Gumbel 모형의 비교 연구)

  • Jang, Hanjin;Kim, Sooyoung;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.331-343
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    • 2015
  • Most nonstationary frequency models are defined as the probability models containing the time-dependent parameters. For frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data, the Gumbel distribution is generally recommended in Korea. For the nonstationary Gumbel models, the time-dependent location and scale parameters are defined as linear and exponential relationship, respectively. The exponentially time-varying scale parameter of nonstationary Gumbel model is generally used because the scale parameter should be positive. However, the exponential form of scale parameter occasionally provides overestimated quantiles. In this study, various forms of time-varying scale parameters such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic forms were proposed and compared. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. To compare the accuracy of each scale parameter, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for various conditions. Additionally, nonstationary frequency analysis was conducted for the sites which have more than 30 years data with a trend in rainfall data. As a result, nonstationary Gumbel model with exponentially time-varying scale parameter generally has the smallest root mean square error comparing with another forms.