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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.5.331

Comparison Study on the Various Forms of Scale Parameter for the Nonstationary Gumbel Model  

Jang, Hanjin (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
Kim, Sooyoung (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
Heo, Jun-Haeng (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.48, no.5, 2015 , pp. 331-343 More about this Journal
Abstract
Most nonstationary frequency models are defined as the probability models containing the time-dependent parameters. For frequency analysis of annual maximum rainfall data, the Gumbel distribution is generally recommended in Korea. For the nonstationary Gumbel models, the time-dependent location and scale parameters are defined as linear and exponential relationship, respectively. The exponentially time-varying scale parameter of nonstationary Gumbel model is generally used because the scale parameter should be positive. However, the exponential form of scale parameter occasionally provides overestimated quantiles. In this study, various forms of time-varying scale parameters such as exponential, linear, and logarithmic forms were proposed and compared. The parameters were estimated based on the method of maximum likelihood. To compare the accuracy of each scale parameter, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for various conditions. Additionally, nonstationary frequency analysis was conducted for the sites which have more than 30 years data with a trend in rainfall data. As a result, nonstationary Gumbel model with exponentially time-varying scale parameter generally has the smallest root mean square error comparing with another forms.
Keywords
nonstationary Gumbel model; scale parameter; Monte Carlo simulation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 8  (Citation Analysis)
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