• 제목/요약/키워드: Species distribution model

검색결과 322건 처리시간 0.032초

페놀계 모델 화합물 및 폴리벤조옥사진 수지에 대한 수소결합분포의 정량화 (Quantification for the Distribution of Hydrogen Bonding Species in Phenolic Model Compounds and Polybenzoxazines)

  • 김호동;문화연
    • 한국염색가공학회지
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2008
  • To understand the complex hydrogen bonding structure, several phenolic derivatives and benzoxazine model compounds are synthesized and characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). The estimation of molar extinction coefficients for various types of hydrogen bonding species is systematically carried out by the curve-resolving of FT-IR spectra. The distribution of hydrogen bonding species in benzoxazine model dimers is quantitatively analyzed. It is revealed that benzoxazine dimers and BA-a polybenzoxazine are mainly composed of intramolecular interaction rather than intermolecular interaction.

종분포모형을 이용한 히어리 서식지의 분포 특성 연구 (A Study on Distribution Characteristics of Corylopsis coreana Using SDM)

  • 권혁수;류지은;서창완;김지연;임동옥;서민환
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.735-743
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    • 2012
  • Since the CBD(Conservation on Biological Diversity)'s 10th Conference of the Parties adopted the protocol on access to genetic resources and benefit sharing in Nagoya 2010, the importance of endangered species studies such as habitat distribution, protection and management have been more emerged. Corylopsis coreana, an endangered species in Korea, was isolated nationally and has been damaged by anthropogenic factors. In this paper, we identified the factors affecting C. coreana habitat at the national scale and regional scale using National Survey of Natural Environment and predicted the distribution of C. coreana. Annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest quarter, temperature seasonality and Digital Elevation Model(DEM) were derived as important factors at the national scale, and precipitation of wettest quarter, DEM and solar radiation on spring were identified as important factors at regional scale. Colylopsis distribution was affected by an effect of climate significantly at the national scale, and by additionally the microclimate and topography at regional scale. These findings will be used as the basis on habitat conservation and restoration plan and climate change.

MaxEnt를 활용한 기후변화와 토지 피복 변화에 따른 멸강나방 및 혹명나방의 한국 내 분포 변화 분석과 예측 (Analysis and estimation of species distribution of Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis with land-cover data under climate change scenario using MaxEnt)

  • 박태철;장호중;엄소은;손기문;박정준
    • 환경생물
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    • 제40권2호
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    • pp.214-223
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    • 2022
  • 멸강나방(Mythimna seperata)과 혹명나방(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis)은 중국 남부 양쯔강 유역에서 봄철 편서풍을 타고 국내로 유입되는 비래 해충(Migratory insect pests)으로 벼를 기주로 삼아 벼 잎을 가해하여 생육을 저해시킨다. 두 나방의 분포를 파악하기 위해서는 서식처의 온습도 뿐만 아니라 주변 환경 요소를 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구는 두 나방의 분포를 파악하기 위해서 SDM(Species Distribution Model) 중 Machine learning model인 MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy)에 출현 자료, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 시나리오를 적용하여 현재와 미래의 서식지 적합성 모형을 예측했다. 결과로 시기에 따른 서식처 면적이 큰 차이가 없었으며, SSPs 시나리오가 나빠짐에 따라 분포 면적이 넓어졌다. 두 나방은 중국으로부터 비래 후 생존하기 위한 최적의 장소가 기주가 있는 서해안과 남해안에 집중되어 있다. MaxEnt 결과 토지피복 자료, DEM (Degital Elevation Model) 순으로 기여도가 높게 나타났다. 이는 논에서의 출현 확률 높고 고도가 높아지면서 출현 확률이 낮아졌기 때문이다. 기후 변수에서 멸강나방은 BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality), 혹명나방은 BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range)가 높게 나타났다. 멸강나방은 계절에 의한 기온 차가 31.9℃ 이상일 때 서식처가 줄어들고, 혹명나방은 일교차 클수록 서식처가 넓어질 것으로 나타났다. 서식지 적합성 모형에서 두 나방은 대부분의 논에서 서식이 가능할 것이라 예측되었다. 하지만, 두 나방의 출현 위치를 정확하게 예측하는 데 한계가 있으므로, 서식지 적합성 지도를 기초로 조기에 대응하는 것이 중요하다고 판단된다.

종 분포 모형을 활용한 새로운 구상나무 서식지 탐색, 그리고 식물보전 활용 (A Detection of Novel Habitats of Abies Koreana by Using Species Distribution Models(SDMs) and Its Application for Plant Conservation)

  • 김남신;한동욱;차진열;박용수;조현제;권혜진;조용찬;오승환;이창석
    • 한국환경복원기술학회지
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    • 제18권6호
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2015
  • Korean fir(Abies koreana E.H.Wilson 1920), endemic tree species of Korean peninsula, is considered as vulnerable and endangered species to recent rapid environmental changes such as land use and climate change. There are limited activities and efforts to find natural habitats of Korean fir for conservation of the species and habitats. In this study, by applying SDMs (Species Distribution Models) based on climate and topographic factors of Korean fir, we developed Korean fir's predicted distribution model and explored novel natural habitats. In Mt. Shinbulsan, Youngnam region and Mt. Songnisan, we could find korean fir's two novel habitat and the former was the warmest($13^{\circ}C$ in annual mean temperature), the driest(1,200mm~1,600mm in annual rainfall) and relatively low altitude environment among Korean fir's habitats in Korea. The result of SDMs did not include mountain areas of Gangwon-do as habitats of A. nephrolepis, because there were different contributions of key habitat environment factors, summer rainfall, winter mean temperature and winter rainfall, between A. koreana and A. nephrolepis. Our results raise modification of other distribution models on Korean fir. Novel habitat of Korean fir in Mt. Shinbulsan revealed similar habitat affinity of the species, ridgy and rocky site, with other habitats in Korea. Our results also suggest potential areas for creation of Korea fir's alternative habitats through species reintroduction in landscape and ecosystem level.

Predicting the potential distribution of the subalpine broad-leaved tree species, Betula ermanii Cham. under climate change in South Korea

  • Shin, Sookyung;Dang, Ji-Hee;Kim, Jung-Hyun;Han, Jeong Eun
    • Journal of Species Research
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.246-254
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    • 2021
  • Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km2, covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.

기후변화에 따른 송악의 잠재서식지 분포 변화 예측 (Potential Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Hedera rhombea in the Korean Peninsula)

  • 박선욱;구경아;서창완;공우석
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2016
  • We projected the distribution of Hedera rhombea, an evergreen broad-leaved climbing plant, under current climate conditions and predicted its future distributions under global warming. Inaddition, weexplained model uncertainty by employing 9 single Species Distribution model (SDM)s to model the distribution of Hedera rhombea. 9 single SDMs were constructed with 736 presence/absence data and 3 temperature and 3 precipitation data. Uncertainty of each SDM was assessed with TSS (Ture Skill Statistics) and AUC (the Area under the curve) value of ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analyses. To reduce model uncertainty, we combined 9 single SDMs weighted by TSS and resulted in an ensemble forecast, a TSS weighted ensemble. We predicted future distributions of Hedera rhombea under future climate conditions for the period of 2050 (2040~2060), which were estimated with HadGEM2-AO. RF (Random Forest), GBM (Generalized Boosted Model) and TSS weighted ensemble model showed higher prediction accuracies (AUC > 0.95, TSS > 0.80) than other SDMs. Based on the projections of TSS weighted ensemble, potential habitats under current climate conditions showed a discrepancy with actual habitats, especially in the northern distribution limit. The observed northern boundary of Hedera rhombea is Ulsan in the eastern Korean Peninsula, but the projected limit was eastern coast of Gangwon province. Geomorphological conditions and the dispersal limitations mediated by birds, the lack of bird habitats at eastern coast of Gangwon Province, account for such discrepancy. In general, potential habitats of Hedera rhombea expanded under future climate conditions, but the extent of expansions depend on RCP scenarios. Potential Habitat of Hedera rhombea expanded into Jeolla-inland area under RCP 4.5, and into Chungnam and Wonsan under RCP 8.5. Our results would be fundamental information for understanding the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of Hedera rhombea.

Effectiveness of Sensitivity Analysis for Parameter Selection in CLIMEX Modeling of Metcalfa pruinosa Distribution

  • Byeon, Dae-hyeon;Jung, Sunghoon;Mo, Changyeun;Lee, Wang-Hee
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제43권4호
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    • pp.410-419
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    • 2018
  • Purpose: CLIMEX, a species distribution modeling tool, includes various types of parameters representing climatic conditions; the estimation of these parameters directly determines the model accuracy. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of parameters for the climatic suitability calculated by CLIMEX for Metcalfa pruinosa in South Korea. Methods: We first changed 12 parameters and identified the three significant parameters that considerably affected the CLIMEX simulation response. Results: The result indicated that the simulation was highly sensitive to changes in lower optimal temperatures, lower soil moisture thresholds, and cold stress accumulation rate based on the sensitivity index, suggesting that these were the fundamental parameters to be used for fitting the simulation into the actual distribution. Conclusion: Sensitivity analysis is effective for estimating parameter values, and selecting the most important parameters for improving model accuracy.

Valuation of Forest Habitat Functions of Endangered Mammals Using Species Distribution Model

  • Kim, Jung Teak;Kim, Jaeuk;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Jeon, Seong Woo;Kim, Joon Soon
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • 제31권3호
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    • pp.207-213
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    • 2015
  • It is estimated that there is a total of approximately 100,000 species in Korea. However, the number is currently about 30,000 and only 16,027 species are listed in the 'Species Korea' (as of December, 2014). Of the listed species, 51 species are designated as the Endangered Species Class I while 195 species are in the Class II, totaling 246 endangered species including 20 mammals. Under the circumstances that development (e.g., roads) is increasingly threatening the persistence of endangered mammals, it is significant to identify and preserve suitable habitats for them. In this context, evaluating the values of the suitable habitat environment would serve as essential information for development decision making. This study estimated the values of endangered mammals' forest habitats through spatialization of habitat services. In doing so, a species distribution model, Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) was utilized for a group of endangered mammals including, mountain goat, wildcat, marten cat, and flying squirrel. To calculate the values per unit area, a benefit transfer method was used based on the point-estimate technique with the best available values estimated previously. The range of discount rate of 3.0 to 5.5 percent was applied taking the notion of social discount rate into account. As a result, the province with the highest values for endangered mammal habitats appeared to be Gangwon, followed by Gyeongbuk and Gyeongnam. The monetary values of the endangered mammal habitats were estimated to be 330 billion to 421 billion won per year.

Residual spatial autocorrelation in macroecological and biogeographical modeling: a review

  • Gaspard, Guetchine;Kim, Daehyun;Chun, Yongwan
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • 제43권2호
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    • pp.191-201
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    • 2019
  • Macroecologists and biogeographers continue to predict the distribution of species across space based on the relationship between biotic processes and environmental variables. This approach uses data related to, for example, species abundance or presence/absence, climate, geomorphology, and soils. Researchers have acknowledged in their statistical analyses the importance of accounting for the effects of spatial autocorrelation (SAC), which indicates a degree of dependence between pairs of nearby observations. It has been agreed that residual spatial autocorrelation (rSAC) can have a substantial impact on modeling processes and inferences. However, more attention should be paid to the sources of rSAC and the degree to which rSAC becomes problematic. Here, we review previous studies to identify diverse factors that potentially induce the presence of rSAC in macroecological and biogeographical models. Furthermore, an emphasis is put on the quantification of rSAC by seeking to unveil the magnitude to which the presence of SAC in model residuals becomes detrimental to the modeling process. It turned out that five categories of factors can drive the presence of SAC in model residuals: ecological data and processes, scale and distance, missing variables, sampling design, and assumptions and methodological approaches. Additionally, we noted that more explicit and elaborated discussion of rSAC should be presented in species distribution modeling. Future investigations involving the quantification of rSAC are recommended in order to understand when rSAC can have an adverse effect on the modeling process.

Biotic ligand model과 종 민감도 분포를 이용한 토양 공극수 내 Cu의 생태독성학적 허용농도 결정에 미치는 환경인자의 영향 (Effect of Environmental Factors on the Determination of the Ecotoxicological Threshold Concentration of Cu in Soil Pore Water through Biotic Ligand Model and Species Sensitivity Distribution)

  • 유기현;안진성;정부윤;남경필
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제22권1호
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2017
  • Biotic ligand model (BLM) and species sensitivity distribution (SSD) were used to determine the site-specific Cu threshold concentration (5% hazardous concentration; HC5) in soil pore water. Model parameters for Cu-BLM were collected for six plants, one collembola, and two earthworms from published literatures. Half maximal effective concentration ($EC_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$), expressed as $Cu^{2+}$ activity, was calculated based on activities of major cations and the collected Cu-BLM parameters. The $EC_{50}\{Cu^{2+}\}$ varied from 2 nM to $251{\mu}M$ according to the variation in environmental factors of soil pore water (pH, major cation/anion concentrations) and the type of species. Hazardous activity for 5% (HA5) and HC5 calculated from SSD varied from 0.076 to $0.4{\mu}g/L$ and 0.4 to $83.4{\mu}g/L$, respectively. HA5 and HC5 significantly decreased with the increase in pH in the region with pH less than 7 due to the decrease in competition with $H^+$ and $Cu^{2+}$. In the region with pH more than 7, HC5 increased with the increase in pH due to the formation of complexes of Cu with inorganic ligands. In the presence of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Cu and DOC form a complex, which decreases $Cu^{2+}$ activity in soil pore water, resulting in up to 292-fold increase in HC5 from 0.48 to $140{\mu}g/L$.