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http://dx.doi.org/10.12651/JSR.2021.10.3.246

Predicting the potential distribution of the subalpine broad-leaved tree species, Betula ermanii Cham. under climate change in South Korea  

Shin, Sookyung (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources)
Dang, Ji-Hee (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources)
Kim, Jung-Hyun (Department of Biological Resources Research, National Institute of Biological Resources)
Han, Jeong Eun (Department of Biological Resources Utilization, National Institute of Biological Resources)
Publication Information
Journal of Species Research / v.10, no.3, 2021 , pp. 246-254 More about this Journal
Abstract
Subalpine and alpine ecosystems are especially vulnerable to temperature increases. Betula ermanii Cham. (Betulaceae) is a dominant broad-leaved tree species in the subalpine zone and is designated as a 'Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species' in South Korea. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of B. ermanii under current and future climate conditions in South Korea using the MaxEnt model. The species distribution models showed an excellent fit (AUC=0.99). Among the climatic variables, the most critical factors shaping B. ermanii distribution were identified as the maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5; 64.8%) and annual mean temperature (Bio1; 20.3%). Current potential habitats were predicted in the Baekdudaegan mountain range and Mt. Hallasan, and the area of suitable habitat was 1531.52 km2, covering 1.57% of the Korean Peninsula. With global warming, future climate scenarios have predicted a decrease in the suitable habitats for B. ermanii. Under RCP8.5-2070s, in particular, habitat with high potential was predicted only in several small areas in Gangwon-do, and the total area suitable for the species decreased by up to 97.3% compared to the current range. We conclude that the dominant factor affecting the distribution of B. ermanii is temperature and that future temperature rises will increase the vulnerability of this species.
Keywords
Betula ermanii; climate change; habitat suitability; species distribution models; subalpine zone;
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