• Title/Summary/Keyword: Spatial estimation

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Validation of Extreme Rainfall Estimation in an Urban Area derived from Satellite Data : A Case Study on the Heavy Rainfall Event in July, 2011 (위성 자료를 이용한 도시지역 극치강우 모니터링: 2011년 7월 집중호우를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sun-Kwon;Park, Kyung-Won;Kim, Jong Pil;Jung, Il-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.371-384
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    • 2014
  • This study developed a new algorithm of extreme rainfall extraction based on the Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite (COMS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Satellite image data and evaluated its applicability for the heavy rainfall event in July-2011 in Seoul, South Korea. The power-series-regression-based Z-R relationship was employed for taking into account for empirical relationships between TRMM/PR, TRMM/VIRS, COMS, and Automatic Weather System(AWS) at each elevation. The estimated Z-R relationship ($Z=303R^{0.72}$) agreed well with observation from AWS (correlation coefficient=0.57). The estimated 10-minute rainfall intensities from the COMS satellite using the Z-R relationship generated underestimated rainfall intensities. For a small rainfall event the Z-R relationship tended to overestimated rainfall intensities. However, the overall patterns of estimated rainfall were very comparable with the observed data. The correlation coefficients and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 10-minute rainfall series from COMS and AWS gave 0.517, and 3.146, respectively. In addition, the averaged error value of the spatial correlation matrix ranged from -0.530 to -0.228, indicating negative correlation. To reduce the error by extreme rainfall estimation using satellite datasets it is required to take into more extreme factors and improve the algorithm through further study. This study showed the potential utility of multi-geostationary satellite data for building up sub-daily rainfall and establishing the real-time flood alert system in ungauged watersheds.

Relationship between the Aboveground Vegetation Structure and Fine Roots of the Topsoil in the Burnt Forest Areas, Korea (산화적지에서 지상부 식생구조와 표토에 분포하는 세근의 관계)

  • Lee, Kyu-Song;Park, Sang-Deog
    • The Korean Journal of Ecology
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.149-156
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    • 2005
  • This study was conducted to elucidate the relationship between the aboveground vegetation structure and fine roots of the topsoil (<15m), and thereafter to obtain the regression models for the estimation of the fine roots of the topsoil using the aboveground vegetation values in the burned forest areas, Korea. The FRT (fine roots of the top soil) as well as the aboveground vegetation structure showed spatial variation in the earlier successional stages after forest fire. The fine roots (<2 mm) of the topsoil in the earlier successional stages than the first 3 year after forest fire showed the range from 3 to 166 g $DM/m^2$. The FRT in the naturally regenerated sites and planted sites after forest fire was closely correlated with the vegetation indices, especially lvc, representing the development status of the aboveground vegetation. The FRT in the terrace seeding work sites after forest fire was closely correlated with year elapsed after terrace seeding work. The FRT in the terrace seeding work sites showed the much higher values because of the vigorous growth of grass species than the other sites. In the naturally regenerated sites, the FRT showed the parabola form according to the increment of aboveground vegetation value (Ivc). Although the aboveground vegetation value (Ivc) showed a tendency to increase logarithmically during the secondary succession after forest fire, the estimated fine roots of the topsoil was depicted the parabola form showing the gradual increment until the first 15 years and slight decrease thereafter. Decrease of FRT in the later successional stage showing the high vegetation value may be caused by increment of the woody species contribution to the vegetation value (Ivc). Our results represented that the aboveground vegetation value (Ivc) can be used to the estimation of the fine roots of the topsoil in burned forest areas.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge by Considering Runoff Process and Groundwater Level Variation in Watershed (유역 유출과정과 지하수위 변동을 고려한 분포형 지하수 함양량 산정방안)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Kim, Nam-Won;Lee, Jeong-Woo
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2007
  • In Korea, there have been various methods of estimating groundwater recharge which generally can be subdivided into three types: baseflow separation method by means of groundwater recession curve, water budget analysis based on lumped conceptual model in watershed, and water table fluctuation method (WTF) by using the data from groundwater monitoring wells. However, groundwater recharge rate shows the spatial-temporal variability due to climatic condition, land use and hydrogeological heterogeneity, so these methods have various limits to deal with these characteristics. To overcome these limitations, we present a new method of estimating recharge based on water balance components from the SWAT-MODFLOW which is an integrated surface-ground water model. Groundwater levels in the interest area close to the stream have dynamics similar to stream flow, whereas levels further upslope respond to precipitation with a delay. As these behaviours are related to the physical process of recharge, it is needed to account for the time delay in aquifer recharge once the water exits the soil profile to represent these features. In SWAT, a single linear reservoir storage module with an exponential decay weighting function is used to compute the recharge from soil to aquifer on a given day. However, this module has some limitations expressing recharge variation when the delay time is too long and transient recharge trend does not match to the groundwater table time series, the multi-reservoir storage routing module which represents more realistic time delay through vadose zone is newly suggested in this study. In this module, the parameter related to the delay time should be optimized by checking the correlation between simulated recharge and observed groundwater levels. The final step of this procedure is to compare simulated groundwater table with observed one as well as to compare simulated watershed runoff with observed one. This method is applied to Mihocheon watershed in Korea for the purpose of testing the procedure of proper estimation of spatio-temporal groundwater recharge distribution. As the newly suggested method of estimating recharge has the advantages of effectiveness of watershed model as well as the accuracy of WTF method, the estimated daily recharge rate would be an advanced quantity reflecting the heterogeneity of hydrogeology, climatic condition, land use as well as physical behaviour of water in soil layers and aquifers.

Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

A Study on the Observation of Soil Moisture Conditions and its Applied Possibility in Agriculture Using Land Surface Temperature and NDVI from Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS Satellite Image (Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS 위성영상의 지표온도와 식생지수를 이용한 토양의 수분 상태 관측 및 농업분야에의 응용 가능성 연구)

  • Chae, Sung-Ho;Park, Sung-Hwan;Lee, Moung-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.6_1
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    • pp.931-946
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to observe and analyze soil moisture conditions with high resolution and to evaluate its application feasibility to agriculture. For this purpose, we used three Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager)/TIRS (Thermal Infrared Sensor) optical and thermal infrared satellite images taken from May to June 2015, 2016, and 2017, including the rural areas of Jeollabuk-do, where 46% of agricultural areas are located. The soil moisture conditions at each date in the study area can be effectively obtained through the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)3 drought index, and each image has near normal, moderately wet, and moderately dry soil moisture conditions. The temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) was calculated to observe the soil moisture status from the Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS images with different soil moisture conditions and to compare and analyze the soil moisture conditions obtained from the SPI3 drought index. TVDI is estimated from the relationship between LST (Land Surface Temperature) and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) calculated from Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS satellite images. The maximum/minimum values of LST according to NDVI are extracted from the distribution of pixels in the feature space of LST-NDVI, and the Dry/Wet edges of LST according to NDVI can be determined by linear regression analysis. The TVDI value is obtained by calculating the ratio of the LST value between the two edges. We classified the relative soil moisture conditions from the TVDI values into five stages: very wet, wet, normal, dry, and very dry and compared to the soil moisture conditions obtained from SPI3. Due to the rice-planing season from May to June, 62% of the whole images were classified as wet and very wet due to paddy field areas which are the largest proportions in the image. Also, the pixels classified as normal were analyzed because of the influence of the field area in the image. The TVDI classification results for the whole image roughly corresponded to the SPI3 soil moisture condition, but they did not correspond to the subdivision results which are very dry, wet, and very wet. In addition, after extracting and classifying agricultural areas of paddy field and field, the paddy field area did not correspond to the SPI3 drought index in the very dry, normal and very wet classification results, and the field area did not correspond to the SPI3 drought index in the normal classification. This is considered to be a problem in Dry/Wet edge estimation due to outlier such as extremely dry bare soil and very wet paddy field area, water, cloud and mountain topography effects (shadow). However, in the agricultural area, especially the field area, in May to June, it was possible to effectively observe the soil moisture conditions as a subdivision. It is expected that the application of this method will be possible by observing the temporal and spatial changes of the soil moisture status in the agricultural area using the optical satellite with high spatial resolution and forecasting the agricultural production.

A Joint Application of DRASTIC and Numerical Groundwater Flow Model for The Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability of Buyeo-Eup Area (DRASTIC 모델 및 지하수 수치모사 연계 적용에 의한 부여읍 일대의 지하수 오염 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Hyun-Ju;Park, Eun-Gyu;Kim, Kang-Joo;Park, Ki-Hoon
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.77-91
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we developed a technique of applying DRASTIC, which is the most widely used tool for estimation of groundwater vulnerability to the aqueous phase contaminant infiltrated from the surface, and a groundwater flow model jointly to assess groundwater contamination potential. The developed technique is then applied to Buyeo-eup area in Buyeo-gun, Chungcheongnam-do, Korea. The input thematic data of a depth to water required in DRASTIC model is known to be the most sensitive to the output while only a few observations at a few time schedules are generally available. To overcome this practical shortcoming, both steady-state and transient groundwater level distributions are simulated using a finite difference numerical model, MODFLOW. In the application for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability, it is found that the vulnerability results from the numerical simulation of a groundwater level is much more practical compared to cokriging methods. Those advantages are, first, the results from the simulation enable a practitioner to see the temporally comprehensive vulnerabilities. The second merit of the technique is that the method considers wide variety of engaging data such as field-observed hydrogeologic parameters as well as geographic relief. The depth to water generated through geostatistical methods in the conventional method is unable to incorporate temporally variable data, that is, the seasonal variation of a recharge rate. As a result, we found that the vulnerability out of both the geostatistical method and the steady-state groundwater flow simulation are in similar patterns. By applying the transient simulation results to DRASTIC model, we also found that the vulnerability shows sharp seasonal variation due to the change of groundwater recharge. The change of the vulnerability is found to be most peculiar during summer with the highest recharge rate and winter with the lowest. Our research indicates that numerical modeling can be a useful tool for temporal as well as spatial interpolation of the depth to water when the number of the observed data is inadequate for the vulnerability assessments through the conventional techniques.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of the Late Marginal Heading Date of Rice using Climate Normal Data in Korea (평년 기후자료를 활용한 국내 벼 안전출수 한계기의 시공간적 변화 평가)

  • Lee, Dongjun;Kim, Junhwan;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.316-326
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    • 2014
  • Determination of the late marginal heading date (LMHD), which would allow estimation of the late marginal seeding date and the late marginal transplanting date, would help identification of potential double cropping areas and, as a result, establishment of cropping systems. The objective of this study was to determine the LMHD at 51 sites in Korea. For these sites, weather data were obtained from 1971 to 2000 and from 1981 to 2010, which represent past and current normal climate conditions, respectively. To examine crop productivity on the LMHD, climatic yield potential (CYP) was determined to represent the potential yield under a given climate condition. The LMHD was calculated using accumulated temperature for 40 days with threshold values of $760^{\circ}C$, $800^{\circ}C$, $840^{\circ}C$ and $880^{\circ}C$. The value of CYP on a given LMHD was determined using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days from the LMHD. The value of CYP on the LMHD was divided by the maximum value of CYP (CYPmax) in a season to represent the relative yield on the LMHD compared with the potential yield in the season. Our results indicated that the LMHD was delayed at most sites under current normal conditions compared with past conditions. Spatial variation of the LMHD differed by the threshold temperature. Overall, the minimum value of CYP/CYPmax was 81.8% under all of given conditions. In most cases, the value of CYP/CYPmax was >90%, which suggested that yield could be comparable to the potential yield even though heading would have occurred on the LMHD. When the LMHD could be scheduled later without considerable reduction in yield, the late marginal transplanting date could also be delayed accordingly, which would facilitate doublecropping in many areas in Korea. Yield could be affected by sudden change of temperature during a grain filling period. Yet, CYP was calculated using mean temperature and sunshine duration for 40 days after heading. Thus, the value of CYP/CYPmax may not represent actual yield potential due to change of the LMHD, which suggested that further study would be merited to take into account the effect of weather events during grain filling periods on yield using crop growth model and field experiments.

Development of a Biophysical Rice Yield Model Using All-weather Climate Data (MODIS 전천후 기상자료 기반의 생물리학적 벼 수량 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Jihye;Seo, Bumsuk;Kang, Sinkyu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_2
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    • pp.721-732
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    • 2017
  • With the increasing socio-economic importance of rice as a global staple food, several models have been developed for rice yield estimation by combining remote sensing data with carbon cycle modelling. In this study, we aimed to estimate rice yield in Korea using such an integrative model using satellite remote sensing data in combination with a biophysical crop growth model. Specifically, daily meteorological inputs derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution imaging Spectroradiometer) and radar satellite products were used to run a light use efficiency based crop growth model, which is based on the MODIS gross primary production (GPP) algorithm. The modelled biomass was converted to rice yield using a harvest index model. We estimated rice yield from 2003 to 2014 at the county level and evaluated the modelled yield using the official rice yield and rice straw biomass statistics of Statistics Korea (KOSTAT). The estimated rice biomass, yield, and harvest index and their spatial distributions were investigated. Annual mean rice yield at the national level showed a good agreement with the yield statistics with the yield statistics, a mean error (ME) of +0.56% and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.73%. The estimated county level yield resulted in small ME (+0.10~+2.00%) and MAE (2.10~11.62%),respectively. Compared to the county-level yield statistics, the rice yield was over estimated in the counties in Gangwon province and under estimated in the urban and coastal counties in the south of Chungcheong province. Compared to the rice straw statistics, the estimated rice biomass showed similar error patterns with the yield estimates. The subpixel heterogeneity of the 1 km MODIS FPAR(Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation) may have attributed to these errors. In addition, the growth and harvest index models can be further developed to take account of annually varying growth conditions and growth timings.

Application of The Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model(TOPMODEL) for Prediction of Discharge at the Deciduous and Coniferous Forest Catchments in Gwangneung, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea (경기도(京畿道) 광릉(光陵)의 활엽수림(闊葉樹林)과 침엽수림(針葉樹林) 유역(流域)의 유출량(流出量) 산정(算定)을 위한 준분포형(準分布型) 수문모형(水文模型)(TOPMODEL)의 적용(適用))

  • Kim, Kyongha;Jeong, Yongho;Park, Jaehyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.197-209
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    • 2001
  • TOPMODEL, semi-distributed hydrological model, is frequently applied to predict the amount of discharge, main flow pathways and water quality in a forested catchment, especially in a spatial dimension. TOPMODEL is a kind of conceptual model, not physical one. The main concept of TOPMODEL is constituted by the topographic index and soil transmissivity. Two components can be used for predicting the surface and subsurface contributing area. This study is conducted for the validation of applicability of TOPMODEL at small forested catchments in Korea. The experimental area is located at Gwangneung forest operated by Korea Forest Research Institute, Gyeonggi-do near Seoul metropolitan. Two study catchments in this area have been working since 1979 ; one is the natural mature deciduous forest(22.0 ha) about 80 years old and the other is the planted young coniferous forest(13.6 ha) about 22 years old. The data collected during the two events in July 1995 and June 2000 at the mature deciduous forest and the three events in July 1995 and 1999, August 2000 at the young coniferous forest were used as the observed data set, respectively. The topographic index was calculated using $10m{\times}10m$ resolution raster digital elevation map(DEM). The distribution of the topographic index ranged from 2.6 to 11.1 at the deciduous and 2.7 to 16.0 at the coniferous catchment. The result of the optimization using the forecasting efficiency as the objective function showed that the model parameter, m and the mean catchment value of surface saturated transmissivity, $lnT_0$ had a high sensitivity. The values of the optimized parameters for m and InT_0 were 0.034 and 0.038; 8.672 and 9.475 at the deciduous and 0.031, 0.032 and 0.033; 5.969, 7.129 and 7.575 at the coniferous catchment, respectively. The forecasting efficiencies resulted from the simulation using the optimized parameter were comparatively high ; 0.958 and 0.909 at the deciduous and 0.825, 0.922 and 0.961 at the coniferous catchment. The observed and simulated hyeto-hydrograph shoed that the time of lag to peak coincided well. Though the total runoff and peakflow of some events showed a discrepancy between the observed and simulated output, TOPMODEL could overall predict a hydrologic output at the estimation error less than 10 %. Therefore, TOPMODEL is useful tool for the prediction of runoff at an ungaged forested catchment in Korea.

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High Speed Rail Station Distric Using Entropy Model Study to Estimate the Trip Distribution (엔트로피 모형을 활용한 고속철도 역세권 통행분포 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hangung;Kim, Sigon;Kim, Jinhowan;Jeon, Sangmin
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.6D
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    • pp.679-686
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    • 2012
  • KTX step 1 April 2004, after the opening, the second phase of the project was opened in November 2010. High-speed rail after the opening and continue to increase the demand of high-speed rail, Have the speed of competitive advantage compared too the means of transportation. The opening of these high-speed rail has led to changes of the move, the company's position, and the spatial structure of the population of reorganization, such as the social, economic, transportation. In this study, survey data using the High Speed Rail Station EMME/2 of the program to take advantage of the 2-Dimentional Blancing trip distribution to investigate the passage through the trip distribution by the estimation of the parameters of the model to estimate the distribution of the means of access and high-speed rail station to reproduce and Analysis of the results by means of access parameters (${\theta}$) autos 0.0395, buses 0.0390, subway 0.0650, taxi 0.0415, the frequency distribution (Trip Length Frequency Distribution: TLFD) were analyzed survey data value model with the results of comparing $R^2$ cars analysis and model values similar survey data 0.909 bus 0.923, subway 0.745 to 0.922, taxi, F test P value analysis is smaller than 0.05 at the 95% confidence level as a note that was judged to have been. Trip frequency distribution analysis, but in the future, set the unit to 5km-trip frequency distribution middle zone Units from small zone units (administrative district) segmentation research is needed, and can reflect the trip distance 0~5 km interval combined function to take advantage of the gravity model and the 3-Dimentional Blancing applied research is needed to be considered.