• 전자공학회논문지CI
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.11-17
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• 2011

본 논문에서는 기존의 아날로그 공간에서 이루어지는 시나리오 생성의 한계를 극복하기 위해 Social Network Service 기술을 이용하여 대중의 참여를 극대화시킨 소셜 시나리오 생성 방법을 제안한다. 소셜 시나리오 생성 방법은 시나리오의 표현 기술에만 쓰이던 디지털 기술을 시나리오 생성에 도입하여 정보의 질까지 향상시킬 수 있다는 점에서 큰 의미가 있다. 기존의 시나리오 생성은 작가 개인의 창작이었기 때문에 전문분야의 이야기를 다룰 때 어려움이 있었고, 개인의 주관적인 생각에 치우치기 쉬웠다. 디지털 시나리오 작성 프로그램들의 등장은 시나리오의 형식을 정형화시켰으나 여전히 이 한계점은 해결하지 못했다. 때문에 디지털 공간에서 시나리오를 작성한다 하더라도 여전히 시나리오 생성은 작가 개인의 생각에만 의지하고 있다. 이러한 한계를 극복하는 방법으로 작가가 많은 사람들의 의견과 관련 정보 중에서 가장 최신의 정보들을 수용할 수 있는 SNS를 이용한 소셜 시나리오 생성 방법을 제안한다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 2004년도 ICCAS
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• pp.1153-1157
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• 2004

The report of the Korean National Statistics Office shows that Korea has been emerging as an elderly society rapidly, and it will burden the Korean society with excessive social welfare cost for the aged in the near future. If we can help the aged to live healthy in some ways, the social burden for the health care of the aged will be lessened. In order to help physical and mental health of the elderly person, we have developed an exercise apparatus called intelligent arm wrestling machine system. This paper presents the mechanism and scenario of the proposed intelligent arm wrestling machine system. The proposed mechanism and scenario are peculiar. In particular, the proposed scenario determines randomly who will win between the man and the robot and generates a game process that the arm-wrestler cannot predict in advance.

• 경영과학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.23-35
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• 2017

With the popularization of mobile devices, the number of social network service users is increasing, thereby the amount of data is also increasing accordingly. As Internet of Things environment is expanding to connect things and people, there is information much more than before. In such an environment, it becomes very important to recommend the necessary information to the user. In this paper, we propose a recommendation method that considers new users in IoT environment. In the proposed method, we recommend the information by applying the centrality-based social network analysis method to the recommendation method using the social relationships in the social IoT. We describe the seven-step recommendation method and apply them to the music circle scenario of the IoT environment. Through the music circle scenario, we show that we can recommend more suitable information to new users in the IoT environment than the existing recommendation method.

• 한국디지털건축인테리어학회논문집
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.87-94
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• 2013

While the society becomes older, the quality growth on the service adequate to seniors is required. The service design is highlighted as a measure to improve the quality of service. And actually, success cases through the service design in various areas are globally introduced. In this study, a research is conducted to develop a service scenario to expand seniors' communication by applying the service design methodology. To analyze seniors' behaviors related to the communication, profiles are established by performing interviews with professionals and the qualitative survey to seniors. And based on the profiles, an idea workshop is conducted with multi-disciplinary experts to develop ideas for seniors' communication. The representative service is drawn by refining ideas. And the detailed service scenario and the video prototype are developed by concentrating one service scenario. The developed service scenario is anticipated to be utilized as a base material to develop services to expand seniors' communication in the future.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제35권9호
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• pp.777-783
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• 2011

Interest about Modal Shift is not being decreased, and it is drawing limelight as green logistics which meets low carbon green growth of National development vision. As an effect of Modal Shift, not only reduction in CO2 emission but also reduction in social cost, logistics cost etc. are being discussed. However, until now research about its practical transformation effect has been scanty. In this study, the actual expenses via CO2 emission, social cost, and logistics cost etc. by road transportation and rail transportation of container cargo with Origin/Destination between Busan-Kyeonggi Area were calculated and we propose beneficial effects when transportation mode is transformed from road to rail with Scenario Planning.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.106-117
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• 2017

본 연구는 사회재난의 선제예방 및 효과적 대응을 위해 개발되는 인명지킴이 시스템의 효율적인 실증을 위한 시나리오를 제시한다. 사회재난 대응을 위한 융 복합기술 기반의 지향성 스피커 등을 활용한 인명지킴이 시스템 개발에 요구되는 사고유형 및 개발 중인 기술을 기반으로 사고 예방 및 대응이 신속하게 이루어질 수 있도록 시나리오를 제시한다.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.53-74
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• 2010

21세기 지식기반사회에서 기술 발전 속도는 가속화되고 있으며 조직 목표를 달성하는데 영향을 줄 수 있는 시장, 거버넌스 및 사회적 가치의 미래 모습에 대한 불확실성이 증대하고 있다. 이러한 기술과 사회 발전의 가속화 및 증가하는 불확실성에 대응하기 위해서 다양한 미래사회 전망을 바탕으로 미래유망기술을 도출하는 기술예측의 필요성은 더욱 중요해지고 있다. 기술예측에는 다양한 예측 방법론이 이용 가능하나 예측의 목적 및 재원 등에 따라 선택되어야 한다. 델파이 방법이 오랫동안 주로 사용되어 왔지만 최근에는 시나리오 또한 많이 활용되고 있다. 시나리오는 사회, 경제 및 정치 등의 환경요인의 복잡성과 불확실성을 폭넓게 고려할 수 있으며 미래의 다양한 모습을 이야기 식으로 전달하기 때문에 매우 효과적인 전략적 도구로 활용된다. 전 세계적으로 진행되고 있는 기후변화, 화석연료의 고갈 등으로 세계 각국은 신재생에너지에 대한 높은 관심을 갖고 기술개발 및 보급 등을 적극적으로 추진하고 있다. 하지만 신재생에너지 분야의 가용잠재량은 지역적으로 큰 편차가 있으며 기술적 진보, 환경규제 및 화석연료의 가격전개와 밀접하게 연관되어 있어 그 발전추이를 예측하기 어려운 면이 있다. 이에 본 연구는 이러한 불확실성을 반영하여 신재생에너지 분야에 대한 다양한 미래 시나리오를 작성하고 시사점을 도출하였다. 향후 본 연구의 시나리오 기반의 예측 프로세스를 국가과학 기술예측에 활용함으로써, 기존의 델파이 위주의 단정적 예측의 단점을 보완한 전략적 예측을 강화할 수 있을 것으로 전망된다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.173-178
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• 2018

This study organizes scenarios on the power supply and demand plans considering the uncertainties and the portion of distributed energy resources. In analysing the scenarios, it estimates total electricity supply cost in the social aspect, natural gas demand and air pollutants emission including carbon dioxide. Also the analysis is performed to estimate the marginal cost of carbon dioxide reduction for the fuel switching from coal to liquified natural gas. In result, the social cost could be decreased by replacing some portion of renewable energy by LNG-based combined heat and power and delaying the construction of large base-load generators such as coal and nuclear plants. The marginal carbon dioxide reduction cost by fuel switching is in plausible range for fuel switching to be an option for carbon dioxide emission reduction when the social cost is considered.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권4호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.