• Title/Summary/Keyword: Small and Medium-Size Enterprise

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A Study on the Effects and Value Analysis of the B2B e-Commerce Guarantee Service (B2B 전자상거래 보증 서비스의 효과 및 가치 분석)

  • Han, Chang-Hee;Kim, Min-Kwan;Lim, Chang-Kyu
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.265-284
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    • 2010
  • B2B e-commerce guarantee service is a guarantee service combining the electronic systems among Korea Credit Guarantee Fund(KCGF), banks and e-marketplaces to process all procedures on internet ranging from application for credit guarantee, issue of written guarantee and contracting for a commerce to payment. B2B e-commerce guarantee service plays as an intermediary role in financial support for small and mediumsized enterprise(SME), which are small size, low credit level, and unfavorable status in many aspects compared to major companies. Despite the B2B e-commerce guarantee service has various advantages conducive to promotion of e-commerce among small and medium businesses as well as development of e-commerce itself, it has yet to be diffused due to lack of acknowledgement, misunderstanding of its functions and vague psychological fear of the on-line settlement. Thus, this study identifies the values and effects of the B2B e-commerce guarantee service using financial data and cases. The process of this study is 4 phase. first phase is analysis of B2B e-commerce guarantee service and e-Marketplace. second phase is analysis of performance from the Perspective of Diverse Participants. third phase is analysis of economic performance and support for SME. last phase is policy suggestions and conclusion.

The Effects of Entrepreneurial Characteristics and Entrepreneurial Intentions : Focusing on Entrepreneurship Education completed Prefounders (창업가 특성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 창업교육을 이수한 예비창업자를 중심으로)

  • Park, Ji Yu;Yang, Hae Sool
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2014
  • Intensive studies have been focused on conditions for business foundation and the entrepreneurship in light of management, economy, and social psychometrics. This study focused on potential effect of entrepreneurial characteristics on environment for entrepreneurial intentions in establishment of orientation of entrepreneurial intentions. Among various factors affecting on starting small and medium size enterprises, how entrepreneur's personal characteristics is related on entrepreneurial intentions was investigated. Manifest questionnaire was distributed among Venture to the professional graduate students, graduate entrepreneurship, and small business start-educated founders in order to deduce the relationship between the entrepreneurial characteristics and the environment of entrepreneurial Intentions. Previous studies and the literature survey were carried out to support for statistics of the questionnaire. 550 answers were collected and analyzed to find that propensity for achievement, innovation, enterprising, risk taking and creativity are key factors influencing inauguration of an enterprise. We have found that among these, risk taking, creativity, and innovation are analyzed to be as a regression coefficient but enterprising a side regression coefficient. Since this study can find its limitation in that comprehensive fields of entrepreneurship were analyzed in general, the result of this study should be used with caution, until more is known about its accessibility for predicting of success or failure of Start-up Company.

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Importance of End User's Feedback Seeking Behavior for Faithful Appropriation of Information Systems in Small and Medium Enterprises (중소기업 환경에서의 합목적적 정보시스템 활용을 위한 최종사용자 피드백 탐색행위의 중요성)

  • Shin, Young-Mee;Lee, Joo-Ryang;Lee, Ho-Geun
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.61-95
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    • 2007
  • Small-and-medium sized enterprises(SMEs) represent quite a large proportion of the industry as a whole in terms of the number of enterprises or employees. However researches on information system so far have focused on large companies, probably because SMEs were not so active in introducing information systems as larger enterprises. SMEs are now increasingly bringing in information systems such as ERP(Enterprise Resource Planning Systems) and some of the companies already entered the stage of ongoing use. Accordingly, researches should deal with the use of information systems by SME s operating under different conditions from large companies. This study examined factors and mechanism inducing faithful appropriation of information systems, in particular integrative systems such as ERP, in view of individuals` active feedback-seeking behavior. There are three factors expected to affect end users` feedback-seeking behavior for faithful appropriation of information systems. They are management support, peer IT champ support, and IT staff support. The main focus of the study is on how these factors affect feedback-seeking behavior and whether the feedback-seeking behavior plays the role of mediator for realizing faithful appropriation of information systems by end users. To examine the research model and the hypotheses, this study employed an empirical method based on a field survey. The survey used measurements mostly employed and verified by previous researches, while some of the measurements had gone through minor modifications for the purpose of the study. The survey respondents are individual employees of SMEs that have been using ERP for one year or longer. To prevent common method bias, Task-Technology Fit items used as the control variable were made to be answered by different respondents. In total, 127 pairs of valid questionnaires were collected and used for the analysis. The PLS(Partial Least Squares) approach to structural equation modeling(PLS-Graph v.3.0) was used as our data analysis strategy because of its ability to model both formative and reflective latent constructs under small-and medium-size samples. The analysis shows Reliability, Construct Validity and Discriminant Validity are appropriate. The path analysis results are as follows; first, the more there is peer IT champ support, the more the end user is likely to show feedback-seeking behavior(path-coefficient=0.230, t=2.28, p<0.05). In other words, if colleagues proficient in information system use recognize the importance of their help, pass on what they have found to be an effective way of using the system or correct others' misuse, ordinary end users will be able to seek feedback on the faithfulness of their appropriation of information system without hesitation, because they know the convenience of getting help. Second, management support encourages ordinary end users to seek more feedback(path-coefficient=0.271, t=3.06, p<0.01) by affecting the end users' perceived value of feedback(path-coefficient=0.401, t=6.01, p<0.01). Management support is far more influential than other factors that when the management of an SME well understands the benefit of ERP, promotes its faithful appropriation and pays attention to employees' satisfaction with the system, employees will make deliberate efforts for faithful appropriation of the system. However, the third factor, IT staff support was found not to be conducive to feedback-seeking behavior from end users(path-coefficient=0.174, t=1.83). This is partly attributable to the fundamental reason that there is little support for end users from IT staff in SMEs. Even when IT staff provides support, end users may find it less important than that from coworkers more familiar with the end users' job. Meanwhile, the more end users seek feedback and attempt to find ways of faithful appropriation of information systems, the more likely the users will be able to deploy the system according to the purpose the system was originally meant for(path-coefficient=0.35, t=2.88, p<0.01). Finally, the mediation effect analysis confirmed the mediation effect of feedback-seeking behavior. By confirming the mediation effect of feedback-seeking behavior, this study draws attention to the importance of feedback-seeking behavior that has long been overlooked in research about information system use. This study also explores the factors that promote feedback-seeking behavior which in result could affect end user`s faithful appropriation of information systems. In addition, this study provides insight about which inducements or resources SMEs should offer to promote individual users' feedback-seeking behavior when formal and sufficient support from IT staff or an outside information system provider is hardly expected. As the study results show, under the business environment of SMEs, help from skilled colleagues and the management plays a critical role. Therefore, SMEs should seriously consider how to utilize skilled peer information system users, while the management should pay keen attention to end users and support them to make the most of information systems.

Effect of Venture Capitalists on the ChiNext IPO First-Day Return in China (중국 차이넥스트 시장의 벤처캐피탈이 IPO 첫날 수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Kai;Ahialey, Joseph Kwaku;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2017
  • In recent times the size of the world IPO in general has skyrocketed. Specifically, China's financial market development is becoming important as both the size of China's capital market and the number of companies going public are gradually increasing. This has led to a rapid development of venture vapital(VC) institutions in China for the past couple of decades. This study focuses on one of the three markets of China's Shenzhen Stock Exchange-the Growth Enterprise Board((GEB) hereafter, ChiNext). The ChiNext is established in October, 2009 to enable hi-tech or high growth potential technology companies that find it relatively difficult to fulfil the listing requirements of either the Shenzhen Main Board or Small and Medium Size Enterprise Board(SMEB) to go public. This study covers a three-year period(2012/01/-2015/01) and analyze first day initial return of 83 venture capital-backed companies and 53 non-venture capital-backed companies using T-test. Regression analysis is used as to examine the variables affecting IPO's first-day return. The empirical results are four-fold. First, the level of first day return of venture-backed is significantly lower than non venture capital backed support in the Chinese venture capital market. Second, the level of first-day return of listed companies supported by foreign venture capital is significantly higher than that of companies receiving domestic venture capital support. Third, the firms that have a large number of venture capital firms showed a low level of first-day return. Fourth, regression result for the IPO first-day return which is as dependent variable indicates that the venture capital support(VCAP), number of venture capital(VCNum), offering size(Lnsize) and PER all affect have negative effect on the first day initial return. Also, the venture capital type(VCType), turnover ratio and the the firm type(Tech-firms) statistically affect IPO first day return positively. Finally, by shedding more light on the IPO first-day return, this paper provides meaningful information to investors about the Chinese IPO market.

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A Study on Medium-Sized Enterprises of Japan (일본의 중견기업에 관한 연구 : 현황과 특징, 정책을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Cheol Gu;Kim, Hyun Sung;Kim, Hyun Chul
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.209-223
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    • 2010
  • Korea's business is composed of a few large-sized enterprises (which can be abbreviated as LSE) and a majority of small-sized enterprises (SSE). Although there has been a growing recognition of the need for the development of medium-sized enterprises (MSE) which can serve as a link between SSE and LSE, as yet there has not yet been a consensus on the definition, characteristics and the function of the MSE in Korea. Nowadays, the world is being globalized, and Japan and China are in competition to ne a great economic power. While East Asia is experiencing rapid changes, promoting MSE which can secure flexibility and efficiency through covering up the limitation of LSE and SSE is needed in order to respond the global market which is being specialized. The features of MSE in Japan can be listed as follows. First, the MSE in Japan is developing the company through getting into niche markets which are hard for major companies to enter rather than developing markets in order to compete against major companies directly. While MSEs are endeavoring to build the business firmly in the domestic market, they can possess special and competitive technical skills through trials and errors; so that they can get a chance develop their business through independent business system rather than putting their effort to compete against major companies. Second, from the MSEs with competitive edge in the market, there are many contributions to the national exportation. Those MSEs produce in domestic and maintain the quality of high price products which need cutting-edge technology, while they relocate the low and middle priced goods to the country where manufacturing costs are low, so that they can maintain the price competitiveness. Third, the industrial structure in Japan is formed from dual structure between major companies and small sized companies. In other words, in Japan's industrial structure which are composed of subcontract structure, this dual structure has taken a major role of small sized companies' growth and manufacturing businesses' international competitive power. Forth, MSE in Japan adopt a strategy of putting their value on qualitative scale growth rather than quantitative scale growth. In this paper, the case of Japanese MSE is analyzed. Along with its long history of Industrialization, Japan has a corporate environment where the SSEs can develop as a MSE and later a LSE through a full-support system. Among its SSEs, there are a number of world class corporations equipped with a large domestic market, win-win cooperation with the LSEs and an independent technology development. It can also be observed that these SSEs develop into MSEs with sustainable growth potentials. This study will focus on the condition under which the MSEs of Japan have been developed, and how they have survived the competition between SSEs and LSEs. Through this study, this paper attempts to offer solutions to Korea's polarization between the SSE and LSE, while providing the basis for SSEs revitalization. In general, if both extremities phenomenon deepen between LSE and SSE, there are possible fears of occurring disutility in national economy by the monopolization of LSE. For that reason, enterprise group, which can make SSE or MSE compete LSE in some area and ease the monopoly and oligopoly problem, is needed. This awareness has been shared for ages long. Nevertheless, there is no legal definition for MSE in Japan, and there is no definition about the enterprise size or unified view of MSE between scholars, but it is defined differently by each of academical person or research institution and study meeting. For that reason, this paper will organize the definition of MSE in Japan, and then will propose the characteristics of the background which has made MSE secure competitiveness and sustainable growth in global market. This study focus on that because through this process, the positive change to the awareness of MSE can be proposed in Korea and to seek the policy direction for building institutional framework which can make SSE become MES. Through this way, the fundamentals for SSE to become MSE can be managed and some appropriate suggestions which will be able to make MSE enter the global market in the future can also be proposed. Due to these facts, this study is very important and well timed task. In a sense of this way, this study will examine the definition and role of MSE in Japan. after this examination, this study will deal with the status, special feature, and promotion policy for MSE. Through this analysis of MSE in Japan, the foundation which be able to set the desirable role model for MSE in Korea can be proposed. Also, the political implication which is needed to push ahead to contribute to creating employment and economic growth through sustainable growth of MSEs in economic system of Korea can be offered through this study. It has been found that Japan's MSE functions as an indispensable link among various industrial structures by holding a significant position in employment rate, production and value added. Although the MSEs took up less than 1% of the entire number of businesses with 2700 manufacturing firms and 7000 non-manufacturing firms, its employment ratios are about 15%, while taking about 25% of the manufacturing industry's exports. In industries such as machinery and electronics which is considered Japan's major industry, the MSEs showed a higher than average ratio of manufacturing exports and employment rate. It can be analyzed that behind Japan's advantageous industries, close and deeply knit MSEs exist. Although there are no clearly stated policies geared towards the MSEs by the Japanese government, various political measures exist such as the R&D Project and the inducement of cooperation between enterprises which gives room for MSEs to participate in the SSE policies. In relation to these findings, the following practical measures can be considered in order to revitalize Korea's MSEs: First, there is a need for a legal definition of MSE and the incentives to provide legal support for its growth. Second, if a law to support the MSEs is established, it could provide a powerful inducement for the SSE to grow as a MSE, rather than stay as a SSE. Third, there is a need for a strategy of MSEs to establish a stable base in the domestic market and then advance to the global market with the accumulated trial and error and competitiveness. Fourth, the SSE themselves need the spirit of entrepreneurship in order to make the leap to a MSE. Because if nothing is to be changed about the system on the firms that grew, and the parts of the past custom was left to be managed alone, confusion and absence of management can take place. No matter how much tax favors the government will give and no matter how much incentive there could be through the policies, there are limits for industries to higher the ability to propagate. And because of that it is a period where industries need their own innovative skills to reform their firms.

Factors Affecting International Transfer Pricing of Multinational Enterprises in Korea (외국인투자기업의 국제이전가격 결정에 영향을 미치는 환경 및 기업요인)

  • Jun, Tae-Young;Byun, Yong-Hwan
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.85-102
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    • 2009
  • With the continued globalization of world markets, transfer pricing has become one of the dominant sources of controversy in international taxation. Transfer pricing is the process by which a multinational corporation calculates a price for goods and services that are transferred to affiliated entities. Consider a Korean electronic enterprise that buys supplies from its own subsidiary located in China. How much the Korean parent company pays its subsidiary will determine how much profit the Chinese unit reports in local taxes. If the parent company pays above normal market prices, it may appear to have a poor profit, even if the group as a whole shows a respectable profit margin. In this way, transfer prices impact the taxable income reported in each country in which the multinational enterprise operates. It's importance lies in that around 60% of international trade involves transactions between two related parts of multinationals, according to the OECD. Multinational enterprises (hereafter MEs) exert much effort into utilizing organizational advantages to make global investments. MEs wish to minimize their tax burden. So MEs spend a fortune on economists and accountants to justify transfer prices that suit their tax needs. On the contrary, local governments are not prepared to cope with MEs' powerful financial instruments. Tax authorities in each country wish to ensure that the tax base of any ME is divided fairly. Thus, both tax authorities and MEs have a vested interest in the way in which a transfer price is determined, and this is why MEs' international transfer prices are at the center of disputes concerned with taxation. Transfer pricing issues and practices are sometimes difficult to control for regulators because the tax administration does not have enough staffs with the knowledge and resources necessary to understand them. The authors examine transfer pricing practices to provide relevant resources useful in designing tax incentives and regulation schemes for policy makers. This study focuses on identifying the relevant business and environmental factors that could influence the international transfer pricing of MEs. In this perspective, we empirically investigate how the management perception of related variables influences their choice of international transfer pricing methods. We believe that this research is particularly useful in the design of tax policy. Because it can concentrate on a few selected factors in consideration of the limited budget of the tax administration with assistance of this research. Data is composed of questionnaire responses from foreign firms in Korea with investment balances exceeding one million dollars in the end of 2004. We mailed questionnaires to 861 managers in charge of the accounting departments of each company, resulting in 121 valid responses. Seventy six percent of the sample firms are classified as small and medium sized enterprises with assets below 100 billion Korean won. Reviewing transfer pricing methods, cost-based transfer pricing is most popular showing that 60 firms have adopted it. The market-based method is used by 31 firms, and 13 firms have reported the resale-pricing method. Regarding the nationalities of foreign investors, the Japanese and the Americans constitute most of the sample. Logistic regressions have been performed for statistical analysis. The dependent variable is binary in that whether the method of international transfer pricing is a market-based method or a cost-based method. This type of binary classification is founded on the belief that the market-based method is evaluated as the relatively objective way of pricing compared with the cost-based methods. Cost-based pricing is assumed to give mangers flexibility in transfer pricing decisions. Therefore, local regulatory agencies are thought to prefer market-based pricing over cost-based pricing. Independent variables are composed of eight factors such as corporate tax rate, tariffs, relations with local tax authorities, tax audit, equity ratios of local investors, volume of internal trade, sales volume, and product life cycle. The first four variables are included in the model because taxation lies in the center of transfer pricing disputes. So identifying the impact of these variables in Korean business environments is much needed. Equity ratio is included to represent the interest of local partners. Volume of internal trade was sometimes employed in previous research to check the pricing behavior of managers, so we have followed these footsteps in this paper. Product life cycle is used as a surrogate of competition in local markets. Control variables are firm size and nationality of foreign investors. Firm size is controlled using dummy variables in that whether or not the specific firm is small and medium sized. This is because some researchers report that big firms show different behaviors compared with small and medium sized firms in transfer pricing. The other control variable is also expressed in dummy variable showing if the entrepreneur is the American or not. That's because some prior studies conclude that the American management style is different in that they limit branch manger's freedom of decision. Reviewing the statistical results, we have found that managers prefer the cost-based method over the market-based method as the importance of corporate taxes and tariffs increase. This result means that managers need flexibility to lessen the tax burden when they feel taxes are important. They also prefer the cost-based method as the product life cycle matures, which means that they support subsidiaries in local market competition using cost-based transfer pricing. On the contrary, as the relationship with local tax authorities becomes more important, managers prefer the market-based method. That is because market-based pricing is a better way to maintain good relations with the tax officials. Other variables like tax audit, volume of internal transactions, sales volume, and local equity ratio have shown only insignificant influence. Additionally, we have replaced two tax variables(corporate taxes and tariffs) with the data showing top marginal tax rate and mean tariff rates of each country, and have performed another regression to find if we could get different results compared with the former one. As a consequence, we have found something different on the part of mean tariffs, that shows only an insignificant influence on the dependent variable. We guess that each company in the sample pays tariffs with a specific rate applied only for one's own company, which could be located far from mean tariff rates. Therefore we have concluded we need a more detailed data that shows the tariffs of each company if we want to check the role of this variable. Considering that the present paper has heavily relied on questionnaires, an effort to build a reliable data base is needed for enhancing the research reliability.

The Determinants of R&D and Product Innovation Pattern in High-Technology Industry and Low-Technology Industry: A Hurdle Model and Heckman Sample Selection Model Approach (고기술산업과 저기술산업의 제품혁신패턴 및 연구개발 결정요인 분석: Hurdle 모형과 Heckman 표본선택모형을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Yunha;Kang, Seung-Gyu;Park, Jaemin
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.10
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    • pp.76-91
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    • 2019
  • There have been many studies to examine the patterns in innovations reflecting industry-specific characteristics from an evolutionary economics perspective. The purpose of this study is to identify industry-specific differences in product innovation patterns and determinants of innovation performance. For this, Korean manufacturing is classified into high-tech industries and low-tech industries according to technology intensity. It is also pointed out that existing research does not reflect the decision-making process of firms' R&D implementations. In order to solve this problem, this study presents a Heckman sample selection model and a double-hurdle model as alternatives, and analyzes data from 1,637 firms in the 2014 Survey on Technology of SMEs. As a result, it was confirmed that the determinants and patterns of manufacturing in small and medium-size enterprise (SME) product innovation are significantly different between high-tech and low-tech industries. Also, through an extended empirical model, we found that there exist a sample selection bias and a hurdle-like threshold in the decision-making process. In this study, the industry-specific features and patterns of product innovation are examined from a multi-sided perspective, and it is meaningful that the decision-making process for manufacturing SMEs' R&D performance can be better understood.

A Study On the Industrial Clusters In a Region Using Big data (빅데이타 분석을 이용한 지역내 산업클러스터 연구)

  • Jung, Jaeheon
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.543-554
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    • 2017
  • We tried to get useful information from social network analysis on the transaction network for the companies in Busan, Ulsan, Kyong-nam region using more than 80 thousand company transaction data obtained from Korean enterprise data (KED). We found that there are 282 clusters having more than 3 companies when we made clusters composed of the companies having the transactions with each other as the first transaction partners in the region. Most of clusters have a major big company with most of sales in the clusters and have the member companies without the transaction with other cluster's member companies so that they have closed and hierarchical transaction pattern. Analysing the transaction network using the network index, we know that there are small medium size companies playing the central role in the regional transaction network and a few clusters have many transactions with other clusters. Also we found that there are very rare sale transactions to the companies outside the region and many purchasing transactions from the companies outside the region. Policy makers need to try to diversify the transaction patterns and to use the exceptional companies and clusters as the levers.

Performance of Collaboration Activities upon SME's Idiosyncrasy (중소기업 특성에 따른 외부 협업 활동이 혁신성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hye Sun;Oh, Junseok;Lee, Jaeki;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2013
  • Recently, SME's Collaboration activities have become one of a vital factor for sustaining competitive edge. This is because of the rapidly changing and competitive market environment, and also to leverage performance by overcoming obstacles of having limited internal resources. Discussing about the effects and relationships of the firm's collaboration activities and its outputs are not new. However, as ICT and various technologies have been diffused into the traditional industries, boundaries and practice capabilities within the industries are becoming ambiguous. Thus contents of the products/services and their development methods are also go and come over the industries. Although many researchers suggested the relations of SME's collaboration activities and innovation performances, most of the previous literatures are focusing on broad perspectives of firm's environmental factors rather than considering various SME's idiosyncrasy factors such as their major product and customer types at once. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to analyze how SME(Small Medium Enterprise)'s external collaboration activities by their idiosyncrasy act as an input to types of innovation performance. In order to analyze collaboration effects in detail, we defined factors that can represent the SME's business environment - Perceived importance of using external resources, Perceived importance of external partnership, Collaboration and Collaboration levels of Major Product types, Customer types and lastly the Firm Sizes. We have also specifically divided the performance of innovation types as product innovation and process innovation based on existing research. In this study, the empirical analysis is based on Probit Regression Model to observe the correlations with the impact of each SME's business environment and their activities. For the empirical data, 497 samples were collected which, this sample data was extracted from the 'Korean Open Innovation Survey' performed by ETRI(Korean Electronics Telecommunications Research Institute) in 2010. As a result, empirical test results indicated that the impact of collaboration varies depend on the innovation types (Product and Process Innovation). The Impact of the collaboration level for the product innovation tend to be more effective when SMEs are developing for a final product, targeting on for individual customers (B2C). But on the other hand, the analysis result of the Process innovation tend to be higher than the product innovation, when SMEs are developing raw materials for their partners or to other firms targeting on for manufacturing industries(B2B). Also perceived importance of using external resources has effected to both product and process innovation performance. But Perceived importance of external partnership was statistically insignificant. Interesting finding was that the service product has negative effects on for the process innovation performance. And Relationship between size of the firms and their external collaboration activities with their performance of the innovations indicated that the bigger firms(over 100 of employees) tend to have better for both product and process innovations. Finally, implications of the results can be suggested as performance of innovation can be varied depends on firm's unique business idiosyncrasy as well as levels of external collaboration activities. The Implication of this research can be considered for firms in selecting an appropriate strategy as well as for policy makers.

A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.