• Title/Summary/Keyword: Simple prediction model

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Hybrid RANS/LES Method for Turbulent Channel Flow (채널난류유동에 대한 하이브리드 RANS/LES 방법)

  • Myeong, Hyeon-Guk
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.1088-1094
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    • 2002
  • A channel flow with a high Reynolds number but coarse grids is numerically studied to investigate the prediction possibility of its turbulence which is three-dimensional and time-dependent. In the present paper, a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model, a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a Navier-Stokes equation with no model are tested with a new approach of hybrid RANS/LES, which reduces to RANS model in the boundary layers and at separation, and to Smagorinsky-like LES downstream of separation, and then compared with each other. It is found that the simulations of hybrid RANS/LES method sustain turbulence like those of LES and with no model, and the results are stable and fairly accurate. This indicates strongly that gradual improvements could lead to a simple, stable, and accurate approach to predict turbulence phenomena of wall-bounded flow.

A Simple Simulation of Parabola-Shaped Clouds in the Lee of a Low Bell-Shaped Mountain Using the ARPS

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Kang, Sung-Dae
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.541-548
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    • 2007
  • A three-dimensional linear model and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) were used to simulate parabola-shaped disturbances and clouds in the lee of a bell-shaped mountain. The ARPS model was compared in the x-y plane against the linear model's analytic solution. Under similar conditions with the linear theory, the ARPS produced well-developed parabola-shaped mountain disturbances and confirmed the features are accounted for in the linear regime. A parabola-shaped cloud in the lee of an isolated bell-shaped mountain was successfully simulated in the ARPS after 6 hours of integration time with the prescribed initial and boundary conditions, as well as a microphysical scheme.

A Lifetime Prediction Modeling for PMOSFET Degraded by Hot-Carrier (II) (Hot-Carrier로 인한 PMOSFET의 소자 수명시간 예측 모델링 II)

  • 정우표;류동렬;양광선;박종태;김봉렬
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.30A no.9
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    • pp.30-37
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    • 1993
  • In this paper, we present a simple and general lifetime prediction model for PMOSFET by using the correlation between transconductance degradation and gate current influence to solve a problem that that I$_{b}$ is dependent on drain structure. The suggested model is applied to a different channel, drain structured PMOSFET. For all PMOSFETs, dg$_{m}$/g$_{m}$ of PMOSFET appears with one straight line about Q$_{g}$, therefore, this model using I$_{g}$ is consistent with experiment result independently of channel, drain structure. It is, therefore, proposed that a model using I$_{g}$ has a general applicability for PMOSFET's.

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A Study on the Prediction of the World Seaborne Trade Volume through the Exponential Smoothing Method and Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model (지수평활법과 SUR 모형을 통한 세계 해상물동량 예측 연구)

  • Ahn, Young-Gyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 2019
  • This study predicts the future world seaborne trade volume with econometrics methods using 23-year time series data provided by Clarksons. For this purpose, this study uses simple regression analysis, exponential smoothing method and seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR Model). This study is meaningful in that it predicts worldwide total seaborne trade volume and seaborne traffic in four major items (container, bulk, crude oil, and LNG) from 2019 to 2023 as there are few prior studies that predict future seaborne traffic using recent data. It is expected that more useful references can be provided to trade related workers if the analysis period was increased and additional variables could be included in future studies.

Development of penetration rate prediction model using shield TBM excavation data (쉴드 TBM 현장 굴진데이터를 이용한 굴착속도 예측모델 개발)

  • La, You-Sung;Kim, Myung-In;Kim, Bumjoo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.519-534
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    • 2019
  • Mechanized tunneling methods, including shield TBM, have been increasingly used for tunnel construction because of their relatively low vibration and noise levels as well as low risk of rock-falling accidents. In the excavation using the shield TBM, it is important to design penetration rate appropriately. In present study, both subsurface investigation data and shield TBM excavation data, produced for and during ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}{\sim}{\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ high-speed railway construction, were analyzed and used to compare with shield TBM penetration rates calculated using existing penetrating rate prediction models proposed by several foreign researchers. The correlation between thrust force per disk cutter and uniaxial compressive strength was also examined and, based on the correlation analysis, a simple prediction model for penetration rate was derived. The prediction results using the existing prediction models showed approximately error rates of 50~500%, whereas the results from the simple model proposed from this study showed an error rate of 15% in average. It may be said, therefore, that the proposed model has higher applicability for shield TBM construction in similar ground conditions.

A Simple Regression Model for Predicting the TC Intensity Change after Landfall over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 상륙 태풍의 강도변화 예측을 위한 단순회귀모형 개발)

  • Choi, Ki-Seon;Kim, Baek-Jo;Lee, Ji-Yun
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.135-145
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    • 2007
  • We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.

Modeling the Fate of Priority Pharmaceuticals in Korea in a Conventional Sewage Treatment Plant

  • Kim, Hyo-Jung;Lee, Hyun-Jeoung;Lee, Dong-Soo;Kwon, Jung-Hwan
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.186-194
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    • 2009
  • Understanding the environmental fate of human and animal pharmaceuticals and their risk assessment are of great importance due to their growing environmental concerns. Although there are many potential pathways for them to reach the environment, effluents from sewage treatment plants (STPs) are recognized as major point sources. In this study, the removal efficiencies of the 43 selected priority pharmaceuticals in a conventional STP were evaluated using two simple models: an equilibrium partitioning model (EPM) and STPWIN$^{TM}$ program developed by US EPA. It was expected that many pharmaceuticals are not likely to be removed by conventional activated sludge processes because of their relatively low sorption potential to suspended sludge and low biodegradability. Only a few pharmaceuticals were predicted to be easily removed by sorption or biodegradation, and hence a conventional STP may not protect the environment from the release of unwanted pharmaceuticals. However, the prediction made in this study strongly relies on sorption coefficient to suspended sludge and biodegradation half-lives, which may vary significantly depending on models. Removal efficiencies predicted using the EPM were typically higher than those predicted by STPWIN for many hydrophilic pharmaceuticals due to the difference in prediction method for sorption coefficients. Comparison with experimental organic carbon-water partition coefficients ($K_{ocs}) revealed that log KOW-based estimation used in STPWIN is likely to underestimate sorption coefficients, thus resulting low removal efficiency by sorption. Predicted values by the EPM were consistent with limited experimental data although this model does not include biodegradation processes, implying that this simple model can be very useful with reliable Koc values. Because there are not many experimental data available for priority pharmaceuticals to evaluate the model performance, it should be important to obtain reliable experimental data including sorption coefficients and biodegradation rate constants for the prediction of the fate of the selected pharmaceuticals.

An Approach to Evaluate Reliability of Electronic Ballasts for the Fluorescent Lamp (형광등용 전자식 안정기의 신뢰성 평가를 위한 접근)

  • Jeon, Tae-Bo;Jang, Mok-Soon;Park, Chong-Yeon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.333-338
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    • 2006
  • A simple but practical approach to evaluate the reliability of electronic ballasts for the low wattage fluorescent lamp has been presented in this study. We briefly reviewed the basic concepts of the electronic ballast. We then proposed a simple model and evaluated the reliability of the ballast using computer simulation.

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Development of Weather Forecast Models for a Short-term Building Load Prediction (건물의 단기부하 예측을 위한 기상예측 모델 개발)

  • Jeon, Byung-Ki;Lee, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Eui-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2018
  • In this work, we propose weather prediction models to estimate hourly outdoor temperatures and solar irradiance in the next day using forecasting information. Hourly weather data predicted by the proposed models are useful for setting system operating strategies for the next day. The outside temperature prediction model considers 3-hourly temperatures forecasted by Korea Meteorological Administration. Hourly data are obtained by a simple interpolation scheme. The solar irradiance prediction is achieved by constructing a dataset with the observed cloudiness and correspondent solar irradiance during the last two weeks and then by matching the forecasted cloud factor for the next day with the solar irradiance values in the dataset. To verify the usefulness of the weather prediction models in predicting a short-term building load, the predicted data are inputted to a TRNSYS building model, and results are compared with a reference case. Results show that the test case can meet the acceptance error level defined by the ASHRAE guideline showing 8.8% in CVRMSE in spite of some inaccurate predictions for hourly weather data.

Ice Load Prediction Formulas for Icebreaking Cargo Vessels (쇄빙상선의 빙하중 추정식 고찰)

  • Choi, Kyung-Sik;Jeong, Seong-Yeob
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.175-185
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    • 2008
  • One of the concerns that arise during navigation in ice-covered waters is the magnitude of ice loads encountered by ships. However, the accurate estimation of ice loads still remains as a rather difficult task in the design of icebreaking vessels. This paper focuses on the development of simple ice load prediction formulas for the icebreaking cargo vessels. The maximum ice loads are expected from unbroken ice sheet and these loads are most likely to be concentrated at the bow area. Published ice load data for icebreaking vessels, from the model tests and also from full-scale sea trials, are collected and then several ice load prediction formulas are compared with these data. Finally, based on collected data, a semi-empirical ice load prediction formula is recommended for the icebreaking cargo vessels.