Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회 논문집)

The Korean Solar Energy Society (한국태양에너지학회)
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Development of Weather Forecast Models for a Short-term Building Load Prediction

건물의 단기부하 예측을 위한 기상예측 모델 개발

  • Jeon, Byung-Ki (Department of Architectural Engineering, Graduate school, Inha University) ;
  • Lee, Kyung-Ho (Department of Solar Thermal Convergence Lab, Korea Institute of Energy Research) ;
  • Kim, Eui-Jong (Department of Architectural Engineering, Inha University)
  • 전병기 (인하대학교 대학원 건축공학과) ;
  • 이경호 (한국에너지기술연구원) ;
  • 김의종 (인하대학교 건축공학과)
  • Received : 2017.09.14
  • Accepted : 2018.02.12
  • Published : 2018.02.28
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Abstract

In this work, we propose weather prediction models to estimate hourly outdoor temperatures and solar irradiance in the next day using forecasting information. Hourly weather data predicted by the proposed models are useful for setting system operating strategies for the next day. The outside temperature prediction model considers 3-hourly temperatures forecasted by Korea Meteorological Administration. Hourly data are obtained by a simple interpolation scheme. The solar irradiance prediction is achieved by constructing a dataset with the observed cloudiness and correspondent solar irradiance during the last two weeks and then by matching the forecasted cloud factor for the next day with the solar irradiance values in the dataset. To verify the usefulness of the weather prediction models in predicting a short-term building load, the predicted data are inputted to a TRNSYS building model, and results are compared with a reference case. Results show that the test case can meet the acceptance error level defined by the ASHRAE guideline showing 8.8% in CVRMSE in spite of some inaccurate predictions for hourly weather data.

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References

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