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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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A Simple Regression Model for Predicting the TC Intensity Change after Landfall over the Korean Peninsula

한반도 상륙 태풍의 강도변화 예측을 위한 단순회귀모형 개발

  • Choi, Ki-Seon (Policy Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Kim, Baek-Jo (Policy Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research) ;
  • Lee, Ji-Yun (Typhoon and Asian Dust Research Lab., National Institute of Meteorological Research)
  • 최기선 (국립기상연구소 정책연구팀) ;
  • 김백조 (국립기상연구소 정책연구팀) ;
  • 이지윤 (국립기상연구소 태풍.황사연구팀)
  • Received : 2007.04.12
  • Accepted : 2007.05.19
  • Published : 2007.06.30
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Abstract

We developed a simple regression model for predicting the intesity change (central pressure) of major tropical cyclones (TCs) for 24 hours after landfall using 51 TC cases which landed over the Korean Peninsula for 1951-2004. Clusters 1 and 4 with a relatively strong intensity of TC after landfall classified by Choi and Kim (2007) are used to develop a statistical model for the prediction of TC intensity change. Predicting parameters (falling constants) in the regression models $(P_t=P_0+alnt)$ are 6.46 and 10.11 for clusters 1 and 4, respectively. It might be mentioned that there is some feasibility in employing a simple regression model developed in this study for TC intensity change after landfall for operational purpose of TC forecasting compared with RSMC-Tokyo best-track in both TC cases of Clusters 1 and 4 and Ewiniar (0603) case, but the room for improvement of model still remains for further study.

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