• Title/Summary/Keyword: Shipping Freight Volume

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A Comparative Analysis of the Forecasting Performance of Coal and Iron Ore in Gwangyang Port Using Stepwise Regression and Artificial Neural Network Model (단계적 회귀분석과 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 광양항 석탄·철광석 물동량 예측력 비교 분석)

  • Cho, Sang-Ho;Nam, Hyung-Sik;Ryu, Ki-Jin;Ryoo, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2020
  • It is very important to forecast freight volume accurately to establish major port policies and future operation plans. Thus, related studies are being conducted because of this importance. In this paper, stepwise regression analysis and artificial neural network model were analyzed to compare the predictive power of each model on Gwangyang Port, the largest domestic port for coal and iron ore transportation. Data of a total of 121 months J anuary 2009-J anuary 2019 were used. Factors affecting coal and iron ore trade volume were selected and classified into supply-related factors and market/economy-related factors. In the stepwise regression analysis, the tonnage of ships entering the port, coal price, and dollar exchange rate were selected as the final variables in case of the Gwangyang Port coal volume forecasting model. In the iron ore volume forecasting model, the tonnage of ships entering the port and the price of iron ore were selected as the final variables. In the analysis using the artificial neural network model, trial-and-error method that various Hyper-parameters affecting the performance of the model were selected to identify the most optimal model used. The analysis results showed that the artificial neural network model had better predictive performance than the stepwise regression analysis. The model which showed the most excellent performance was the Gwangyang Port Coal Volume Forecasting Artificial Neural Network Model. In comparing forecasted values by various predictive models and actually measured values, the artificial neural network model showed closer values to the actual highest point and the lowest point than the stepwise regression analysis.

A Size Simulation of Automatic Storage and Retrieval System for a B1 Type Mobile Harbor (반잠수식(B1) 모바일 하버에 도입될 자동창고 시스템의 크기 결정을 위한 시뮬레이션)

  • KIM, Dae-hwan;HAN, Soon-hung;CHUNG, Hyun
    • The Journal of shipping and logistics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.79-98
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    • 2011
  • The volume of the world's container transportation has been increasing. To serve this transportation need, the size of the container carrier is getting larger. The global ports are required to deepen the waterways as well as to prepare infrastructure to serve these super-size container carriers. However, few ports around the world could meet the requirements. To solve these difficulties, the concept of the Mobile Harbor has been developed. An onboard Automatic Storage and Retrieval System(AS/RS) has been proposed for the B1 type Mobile Harbor to maximize the container throughput within the limited space of the Mobile Harbor. A scenario of operations and freight movements of the B1 type Mobile Harbor is prepared and the storage size of the B1 type Mobile Harbor through the computer simulation is estimated. The size of the Mobile Harbor and the size of the AS/RS has also been estimated. The optimized size of the Mobile Harbor could be proposed.

A Study on the Effect of 2010 HNS Convention on Korean Industry (위험·유해물질 피해보상 국제협약의 우리 산업계에 대한 영향 고찰)

  • Kim, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2020
  • The IOPC Fund general assembly reported that the International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances by Sea (known as the HNS Convention) will meet the requirement for the convention to take ef ect between 2021 and 2022. When the convention comes into effect, the liability-limit insurance of the HNS transport ship will be enforced and the shipper receiving the HNS will pay the share of the contribution from the International Fund for damages exceeding the limit of the ship's liability insurance. Korea is one of the major shipping and shipper countries in the world; thus, this study aimed to the need to analyze the effect of the convention on the related industries. The survey of ships and contribution targets analyzed the research data of the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries. The P&I premium estimation was reviewed by the Korea Shipping Association and the K P&I as insured ships. In addition, the contribution of the HNS cargo volume was analyzed in an annual report by a representative international association for each cargo. About 1,500 ocean-going and domestic vessels have been identified as ships subject to the convention. The effect of changes in premiums under the convention was minimal for most ships. The effect of the shipping industry is expected, with about 150 domestic tankers expected to increase insurance premiums. In the case of shipper industries, 52 freight terminals were found to be eligible for the payment of the share of the international fund, as the proportion of freight volume in Korea was ranked second to fourth in the world by individual HNS accounts. This implies the obligation to pay contributions according to the convention. Considering the status of HNS transport ships entering and leaving ports and the quantity of HNS cargo, it can be concluded that the validity of Korea's convention is sufficient and that, it is necessary to coordinate with global major shipper countries.

A Study on Atmospheric Dispersion Pattern of Ship Emissions - Focusing on Port of Busan (선박 배기가스의 대기확산 패턴에 관한 연구 - 부산항을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Min-Woo;Lee, Hyang-Sook
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.35-49
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    • 2018
  • Busan Port handles more than 75% of the domestic freight volume and is ranked at 6th for global shipping in the world. This paper aims to estimate ship emission in North Port that is the center of Busan Port and located near the residential area. The emission for each type of ship is calculated applying a emission model proposed by U.S. EPA and the atmospheric diffusion pattern of the exhaust gas according to the season, the weather condition and the time was identified using CALPUFF Model. As a result, the major pollutants of $NO_x$, $SO_x$ and PM10 were 30,853 tons, 36,281 tons and 6,856 tons, respectively, and the highest rate was 42% in oil tankers. On clear days, air pollution was stagnant around the harbor, spread widely on windy days, and tended to be thinner on rainy days. The research contributes to recognizing the seriousness of air pollution and can be used as basic data for policy making in the future.

A Study of Correlation Between China Iron Ore Import, Steel Export Activity and Dry Bulk Index : Focus on Capesize C5/C10/C14 and Supramax S2/S3 (중국의 철광석 수입량과 철강 수출량이 부정기선 운임지수에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Bong-Gil;Oh, Jin-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-136
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the impact of China's iron ore imports and exports on the tramper freight rate of China. The import volume of iron ore in China, the export volume of steel products in China, and exogenous variables were used as independent variables. The dependent variables were BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14, BSI, S2, and S3. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted. The correlation analysis showed that China's iron ore imports were not related to the remaining BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, and S3, except for the C14 index. However, there was a positive correlation between the ship's space and international oil prices, and it was not related to China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The export volume of steel products was negatively correlated with BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, and international oil prices, and was not related to iron ore imports, ship space, and China's PMI. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's iron ore imports and exogenous variables, China's PMI was rejected within the hypothesis. However, the hypothesis on international oil prices and ship space was adopted. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's steel export volume and exogenous variables, the hypothesis on BDI and the S3 index was adopted, and the hypothesis on BSI and S2 was rejected. In the analysis results of this study, the ship space and oil prices were adopted in all the hypothesis results. Domestic companies participating in the tramper shipping market will need to be prepared through continuous monitoring of related indicators.

Spatial Structure of Hinterlands and Forelands of Pusan Container Export Port: the Cases of 3 National Flag Carriers (부산 컨테이너 수출항의 배후지와 지향지의 공간구조)

  • Cho, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.247-267
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    • 1993
  • According to developing international economy since the World War II, the increase and competition of the national business is so empha-sized tht both the interest and the necessity about marine transportation playing the impor-thant role of international transportation are increased. Today, the container transportation, as called the innovation of marine transport has been prevailed since the 1970's. The purpose of this paper is to grasp the spatial structure of the hinterlands and forelands, its object is export container cargo at Pusan Export Port, as known for the transportation node of modern containerlization. In this study, for the purpose of grasping the relation between hinterlands and forelands of Korean export container cargo, first, I researched the transition of carloading about container cargo, the bistribution channel of cargo, the change of the items of container and the carlo-adings about transport route, secondly, I used the cluster analysis so as to group hinterlands according to the items of goods and forelands. The object of the analysis is container cargo of Choyang Line, Hanjin Shipping and Hyundai Merchant Marine of National Frag Carriers. The source materials used in this study are Trucking Data of Hanjin Co., Container Ren-tal Data of Samik Transport Co. and Transpor-ting Present Condition Tables of Hyundai Mer-chant Marine. 1. There are two kinds of the transport classi-fied by its form: FCL and LCL. In Pusan Con-tainer Export, a lot of textile goods, clothings and furniture, compound, electric goods, and so on are dealed with but the rate of occupation of the transport is getting lower while that of occupation of equipment, papers and agricultu-ral, mineral and livestock industry higher. 2. In 1990, the transports of container cargo in Korea consist of 7 services and round-the world lines. We can list North America lines, East-South Asian lines, Japan lines and Inter European lines, in order of the quantity of tran-sport form the largest to the smaller. We can have another list that Japan lines, North Ame-rica lines and East-South lines in order of the rate participation of national flag carriers, be-cacuse Korean foreign trade lay disproportionate emphasis on East-South Asian lines. Japan lines among them is the biggest import-export market. Since the rationlization policy of marine tran-sport in 1984, each of national flag carriers have its own lines. Hanjin Shipping predominates over North America lines, Choyang Line over New Zealand, Inter European and Austria lines and Hyundai Merchant Marine over Center-South America lines, in terms of the volume of transport. And small-to-medium sized shippers are prevailing in lines which are adjacent to Korea, Such as Japan lines and East-South Asian lines. 3. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Choyang Line, the light industry goods, electric goods and machinary produced in Seoul and Pusan are exported to the major ports in Europe and Japan, the same produces in Suwon, Ulsan, Kumi are exported to European Ports, and those in Incheon and Kwangju Austrian and Japanese ports, and those in the rest regions to the major port in Japan. 4. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Hanjin Shipping, the light industry goods pro-ducing in Seoul and Pusan, the electric goods and machinary in Incheon and Pyeongteck, are exported to New York and Los Angeles. Electric goods and machinary Masan, Anyang, Cheona, Cheongju and Incheon, Electric goods machinary and light industry goods in Kwangju and non mental goods in Pohang, are exported New York, Los Angeles and Oakland. 5. In relation to hinterlands and forelands of Hyundai Merchant Marine, the region of Seoul, Pusan and Incheon closely related with the main ports in U.S.A. The rest regions with Montreal. The hinterlands of export container cargo can be classified by its export items into three kinds: the large city, industrial city and the rest city. Choyang Line's forelands are European lines, Japan lines and Austria lines, and Hanjin Shipping's forelands are North America lines, and Hyundai Merchant Marine's forelands are North America lines and Japan line. 3 National flag carriers' major forelands are determined by the size of port and the shipper's convenient use of the port terminal.

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Factor Analysis Affecting on Changes in Handysize Freight Index and Spot Trip Charterage (핸디사이즈 운임지수 및 스팟용선료 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Kim, Tae-Woo;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.73-89
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    • 2021
  • The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.