• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.163-169
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• 2003

Studies were conducted on the effect of pruning time, host age, conidial dispersal and weather parameters on the incidence and severity of mulberry leaf spot (Myrothecium roridum). The disease severity (%) increased with increase in shoot age irrespective of pruning date. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during first week of April and minimum disease severity in plants pruned during first week of March. Significant (P ＜ 0.01) influence of date of pruning, shoot age and their interaction was observed on severity of the disease. Apparent infection rate (r) was significantly higher during the plant growth period from day 48 to day 55. Average apparent yale was higher in plants pruned during first week of April and least in plants pruned during first week of July. The disease infection was negatively correlated to distance from the inoculum source. Leaf spot severity (%) was influenced by weather parameters. Multiple regression analysis revealed contribution of various combinations of weather parameters on the disease severity. Linear prediction model $(Y ＝ －81.803＋1.176x_2＋0.765x_3) with significant $R^2$ was developed for prediction of the disease under natural epiphytotic condition.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.1-17
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• 2018

Over the past five years (2010-2014), the total number of traffic accidents has decreased from 226,878 to 223,552 with decrease of 0.37 percent each year. The death toll has also decreased from 5,505 to 4,762. However, the number of rental car accidents and fatalities has been steadily increased. Despite of its growth, no previous study has been conducted on rental car accident severity. This study analyzed data of 18,050 rental car accidents in South Korea collected from 2010 to 2014 and then processed in order to identify which factors could affect the accident severity. Seventeen factors related to rental car accident severity were grouped into four categories: driver, vehicle, roadways and environment. As a result of the ordered probit model analysis, fourteen variables excluding age, intersection, and day of week were found to affect the severity of rental car accidents. The results of the study summarized as follows. First of all, violation of traffic regulations such as speeding increase the severity of rental car accidents. Secondly, rental accident severity is higher at curved sections of complicated roadway, which the driver's field of view is impaired. The results of this study can be used to reduce the severity of rental car accidents in transportation safety.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.73-80
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• 2016

Most fault prediction models have class imbalance problems because training data usually contains much more non-fault class modules than fault class ones. This imbalanced distribution makes it difficult for the models to learn the minor class module data. Data imbalance is much higher when severity-based fault prediction is used. This is because high severity fault modules is a smaller subset of the fault modules. In this paper, we propose severity-based models to solve these problems using the three sampling methods, Resample, SpreadSubSample and SMOTE. Empirical results show that Resample method has typical over-fit problems, and SpreadSubSample method cannot enhance the prediction performance of the models. Unlike two methods, SMOTE method shows good performance in terms of AUC and FNR values. Especially J48 decision tree model using SMOTE outperforms other prediction models.

• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.11-15
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• 2011

Impact of pruning date, shoot age and weather parameters on the severity and development of grey leaf spot (Pseudocercospora mori) of mulberry was studied. The disease severity (%) increased with increase in shoot age irrespective of pruning date. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during second week of October and minimum in plants pruned during last week of December. Significant (P<0.05) influence of date of pruning, shoot age and their interaction was observed on the severity of the disease. Apparent infection rate (r) was significantly higher during plant growth period from day-48 to day-55. Average apparent rate was higher in plants pruned during first week of September and least in plants pruned during third and fourth week of December. Multiple regression analysis revealed contribution of various combinations of weather parameters on the disease severity. A linear prediction model [$Y=66.05+(-1.39)x_1+(-0.219)x_4$] with significant $R^2$ was developed for prediction of the disease under natural epiphytotic condition.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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• v.38 no.8
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• pp.715-720
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• 2014

In order to maximize the effect of left ventricular assist device (LVAD) on ventricular unloading, the therapy should be begun at appropriate level of heart failure severity. We predicted pumping efficacy of LVAD according to the severity of heart failure theoretically. We used 3 dimensional finite element model of ventricle coupled with 6 Wind-kessel compartmental model of vascular system. Using the computational model, we predicted cardiac responses such as contractile ATP consumption of ventricle, left ventricular pressure, cardiac output, ejection fraction, and stroke work according to the severity of ventricular systolic dysfunction under the treatments of continuous LVAD. Contractile ATP consumption, which indicates the ventricular energetic loading condition decreased maximally at the $5^{th}$ level heart-failure under LVAD therapy. We conclude that optimal timing for LVAD treatment is $5^{th}$ level heart-failure when considering LVAD treatment as "bridge to recovery".

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.2668-2676
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• 2011

In order to analyze the variation in length of stay(LOS) of injury inpatients, we developed severity-adjusted LOS model using Korean National Discharge In-depth Injury Survey data of Center for Disease Control. Appling this model, we calculated predicted values and, after standardizing LOS using the differences from the actual values, analyzed the variation in LOS. Major factors affecting severity-adjusted LOS of injury inpatients were found to be severity, surgery(or no surgery), age, injury mechanism and channel of hospitalization. Result of analysis of the differences between the actual values and predicted values adjusted by decision tree model suggested that there were statistically significant differences by hospital size(number of beds), type of insurance and location of institution. In order to reduce the variation in LOS, efforts should be exerted in developing nationwide treatment protocol, inducing medical institutions to utilize it, and furthermore systematically evaluating it to reduce the variation continually.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.533-542
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• 2001

In order to establish drought policy, the estimation of drought period for each drought situation should be preceded. Non-linear Water Balance Model(NWBM) and palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) can be used for analysis of drought period. As a water balance method considering moisture transfer between land surface and atmosphere, NWBM can be used to estimate transition time between dry and wet period induced by stochastic fluctuations. PDSI is also water balance method to show drought severity comparing actual precipitation with climatically appropriate precipitation based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In this study, the drought periods are estimated using NWBM and PDSI for the Han River Basin. The drought periods according to the soil moisture estimated by NWBS and the drought periods according to drought severity index estimated by PDSI show similar trend. The estimated drought period from extreme drought to wet condition for the Han River Basin is about 3years.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.21-27
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• 2001

Objectives : To develop a model that will predict the mortality of patients undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) and evaluate the perfermance of hospitals. Methods : Data from 564 CABGs peformed in six general hospitals were collected through medical record abstraction by registered nurses. Variables studied involved risk factors determined by severity measures. Risk modeling was performed through logistic repression and validated with cross-validation. The statistical performance of the developed model was evaluated using c-statistic, $R^2$, and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. Hospital performance was assessed by severity-adjusted mortalities. Results : The developed model included age, sex, BUN, EKG rhythm, Congestive Heart Failure at admission. acute mental change within 24 hours, and previous angina pectoris history. The c-statistic and $R^2$ were 0.791 and 0.001, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 10.3(p value=0.2415). One hospital had a significantly higher mortality rate than the average mortality rate, while others were net significantly different. Conclusion : Comparing the quality of service by severity adjusted mortality rates, there were significant differences in hospital performance. The severity adjusted mortality rate of CABG surgery may He an indicator for evaluating hospital performance in Korea.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.25-31
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• 2021

Moving toward an aged society, traffic accidents involving elderly drivers have also attracted broader public attention. A rapid increase of senior involvement in crashes calls for developing appropriate crash-severity prediction models specific to senior drivers. In that regard, this study leverages machine learning (ML) algorithms so as to predict the severity of vehicle-pedestrian collisions induced by elderly drivers. Specifically, four ML algorithms (i.e., Logistic model, K-nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)) have been developed and compared. Our results show that Logistic model and SVM have outperformed their rivals in terms of the overall prediction accuracy, while precision measure exhibits in favor of RF. We also clarify that driver education and technology development would be effective countermeasures against severity risks of senior driver-induced collisions. These allow us to support informed decision making for policymakers to enhance public safety.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.359-372
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• 2016

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop risk-adjustment models for acute stroke mortality that were based on data from Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) dataset and to evaluate the validity of these models for comparing hospital performance. Methods: We identified prognostic factors of acute stroke mortality through literature review. On the basis of the avaliable data, the following factors was included in risk adjustment models: age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity, and comorbid conditions. Survey data in 2014 was used for development and 2012 dataset was analysed for validation. Prediction models of acute stroke mortality by stroke type were developed using logistic regression. Model performance was evaluated using C-statistics, $R^2$ values, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics. Results: We excluded some of the clinical factors such as mental status, vital sign, and lab finding from risk adjustment model because there is no avaliable data. The ischemic stroke model with age, sex, and stroke severity (categorical) showed good performance (C-statistic=0.881, Hosmer-Lemeshow test p=0.371). The hemorrhagic stroke model with age, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity (categorical) also showed good performance (C-statistic=0.867, Hosmer-Lemeshow test p=0.850). Conclusion: Among risk adjustment models we recommend the model including age, sex, stroke severity, and stroke subtype for HIRA assessment. However, this model may be inappropriate for comparing hospital performance due to several methodological weaknesses such as lack of clinical information, variations across hospitals in the coding of comorbidities, inability to discriminate between comorbidity and complication, missing of stroke severity, and small case number of hospitals. Therefore, further studies are needed to enhance the validity of the risk adjustment model of acute stroke mortality.