• Title/Summary/Keyword: Seasonal characteristic

검색결과 177건 처리시간 0.026초

계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측 (Optimal Forecasting for Sales at Convenience Stores in Korea Using a Seasonal ARIMA-Intervention Model)

  • 정동빈
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제14권11호
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - During the last two years, convenient stores (CS) are emerging as one of the most fast-growing retail trades in Korea. The goal of this work is to forecast and to analyze sales at CS using ARIMA-Intervention model (IM) and exponential smoothing method (ESM), together with sales at supermarkets in South Korea. Considering that two retail trades above are homogeneous and comparable in size and purchasing items on off-line distribution channel, individual behavior and characteristic can be detected and also relative superiority of future growth can be forecasted. In particular, the rapid growth of sales at CS is regarded as an everlasting external event, or step intervention, so that IM with season variation can be examined. At the same time, Winters ESM can be investigated as an alternative to seasonal ARIMA-IM, on the assumption that the underlying series shows exponentially decreasing weights over time. In case of sales at supermarkets, the marked intervention could not be found over the underlying periods, so that only Winters ESM is considered. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - The dataset of this research is obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (1/2010~7/2016) and Survey of Service Trend of Korea Statistics Administration. This work is exploited time series analyses such as IM, ESM and model-fitting statistics by using TSPLOT, TSMODEL, EXSMOOTH, ARIMA and MODELFIT procedures in SPSS 23.0. Results - By applying seasonal ARIMA-Intervention model to sales at CS, the steep and persisting increase can be expected over the next one year. On the other hand, we expect the rate of sales growth of supermarkets to be lagging and tied up constantly in the next 2016 year. Conclusions - Based on 2017 one-year sales forecasts for CS and supermarkets, we can yield the useful information for the development of CS and also for all retail trades. Future study is needed to analyze sales of popular items individually such as tobacco, banana milk, soju and so on and to get segmented results. Furthermore, we can expand sales forecasts to other retail trades such as department stores, hypermarkets, non-store retailing, so that comprehensive diagnostics can be delivered in the future.

다변량분석법을 이용한 금강 유역의 수질오염특성 연구 (Evaluation of the Geum River by Multivariate Analysis: Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis)

  • 김미아;이재관;조경덕
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2007
  • The main aim of this work is focus on the Geum river water quality evaluation of pollution data obtained by monitoring measurement during the period 2001-2005. The complex data matrix 19 (entire monitoring stations)*13 (parameters), 60 (month)*13 (parameters) and 20 (season)*13 (parameters) were treated with different multivariate techniques such as factor analysis/principal component analysis (FA/PCA). FA/PCA identified two factor (19*13) classified pollutant Loading factor (BOD, COD, pH, Cond, T-N, T-P, $NH_3$-N, $NO_3$-N, $PO_4$-P, Chl-a), seasonal factor (water temp, SS) and three Factor (60*13, 20*13) classified pollutant Loading factor (BOD, COD, Cond, T-N, T-P, $NH_3$-N, $NO_3$-N, $PO_4$-P), seasonal factor (water temp, SS) and metabolic factor (Chl-a, pH). Loadings of pollutant factor is potent influence main factor in the Geum river which is explained by loadings of pollutant factor at whole sampling stations (71.16%), month (52.75%) and season (56.57%) of main water quality stations. Result of this study is that pollutant loading factor is affected at Gongju 1, 2, Buyeo 1, 2, Gangkyeong, Yeongi stations by entire stations and entire month (Gongju 1, Cheongwon stations), April, May, July and August (buyeo 1) by month. Also the pollutant Loading factor is season gives an influence in winter (Gongju 1, buyeo 1) from main sampling stations, but Cheongwon characteristic is non-seasonal influenced. This study presents necessity and usefulness of multivariate statistic techniques for evaluation and interpretation of large complex data set with a view to get better information data effective management of water sources.

온도 및 계절요인에 따른 포장 김치의 기체조성 변화 (Gas Composition within Kimchi Package as Influenced by Temperature and Seasonal Factor)

  • 홍석인;이명기;박완수
    • 한국식품과학회지
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.1326-1330
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    • 2000
  • 김치발효중 기체조성변화가 숙성정도를 감지할 수 있는지 알아보기 위하여 배추김치를 플라스틱 용기에 일정량 충진하여 밀봉한 후 저장하면서 포장내 기체조성 변화를 조사한 결과, 김치발효중 포장내 기체조성은 $CO_2$ 발생으로 인하여 계속적으로 변화하였다. 김치 발효온도와는 무관하게 $O_2$ 농도는 지수적으로 감소하고 $CO_2$ 농도는 매우 특징적인 2단계 증가양상을 나타내었다. $CO_2$ 농도는 2차 단계에서 다시 증가함에 따라 김치의 pH는 비례적으로 감소하였다. 저장 온도와 계절별 원료 배추에 따라 김치 포장내 $CO_2$ 농도변화 속도가 다르며 최종 농도에 있어서도 상당한 차이를 나타내었다. 고온에서 발효된 김치일수록 포장내 $CO_2$ 농도가 더 높은 경향을 보였고 여름배추 보다 겨울이나 봄 배추로 제조한 김치에서 포장내 $CO_2$ 농도 및 발생속도가 더 높게 나타났다. 이러한 연구결과를 바탕으로 포장내 기체조성 변화를 이용한 김치의 숙성도 감지 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다.

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회양목명나방(Glyphodes perspectalis)의 생태 특성 (Ecological Characteristic of Glyphodes perspectalis)

  • 박일권
    • 한국응용곤충학회지
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    • 제47권3호
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    • pp.299-301
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    • 2008
  • 회양목명나방(Glyphodes perspectalis) 유충은 6 령기를 거치며, 두부는 검고 광택이 있으며, 몸은 황녹색이었다. 유충기간은 평균 24일이었다. 알은 납작하고 둥근 모양으로 잎에 포개진 형태로 산란되었으며 처음에는 투명하였으나, 시간이 지나면서 유백색으로 변하였다. 번데기는 처음에는 연녹색을 띄었으나, 시간이 지나면서 흑갈색으로 변하였고, 번데기기간은 평균 10.5일이었다. 성충은 1년에 2회 발생하였으며, 1화기 성충은 6월초부터 6월말까지 출현하였으며, 2화기 성충의 우화시기는 8월 중순부터 9월초까지였다.

진해만 동부해역에 출현하는 자치어의 종조성 (Species composition of larval fishes in the eastern Jinhae Bay, Korea)

  • 김현지;정재묵;박종혁;허성회;백근욱
    • 수산해양기술연구
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    • 제54권1호
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2018
  • A study for species composition and abundance of the fish assemblages in the eastern Jinhae Bay, Korea was conducted using monthly larval collection by a RN80 net from October, 2010 to September, 2011. Of all the 45 species collected, the dominant species were Clupea pallasii, Hexagrammos otakii, Pholis fangi and Engraulis japonicus. Clupea pallasii, Hexagrammos otakii, Pholis fangi in winter and examined Engraulis japonicus, Acanthogobius sp., Parablennius yatabei, and Tridentiger trigonocephalus in summer appeared seasonally. Popoulation characteristic by stations was not clear seasonally and spatially, and appearance aspects of dominant species were similar by stations. Compared our results with other studies in the South Sea, dominant species and their appearance period were similar to their spawning period. Finally, the appearance period of the larvae in the South Sea was closely resulted to spawning period rather than the regional characteristic.

제주도 주요하천의 기저유출량 산정 (Estimation of Baseflow Discharge through Several Streams in Jeju Island, Korea)

  • 문덕철;양성기;고기원;박원배
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.405-412
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    • 2005
  • Groundwater in Jeju Island, flowing through main stream, is spring water from underground. To set a fixed quantity of groundwater flowing from surface in a hydrological view, 4 downstream (Woedo stream, Gangjung stream, Yeonwoe stream and Ongpo stream) were selected to calculate the characteristic of baseflow and the base-flow discharge through the data on tachometry. There were 11 to 14 level peak caused by runoff, mostly occurred during monsoon season. Also, duration of runoff was 15 to 25 hours, well reflecting the characteristic of inclined, short stream length in Jeju Island and pervious hydrogeographical feature. In case of Gangjung stream, Yeonwoe stream and Ongpo stream, variation of stream water level by baseflow rose above during summer, which was closely linked to the distribution of seasonal precipitation. From autumn to spring, water level fell below while that of Woedo stream remained the same all year round. Data on the water level observed in Woedo stream and Gangjung stream in every single minutes was applied to weir formula(equation of Oki and Govinda Rao) to calculate baseflow discharge. Also, using the data on current and water level calculated in Ongpo stream and Yeonwoe stream, water level-water flow rating was applied to assess base flow discharge.

스파리조트 호텔의 기능적 공간구성에 관한 연구 (Study on Space Characteristics for Promoting Use of Spa Resort Hotels)

  • 이광례;안희영
    • 한국실내디자인학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국실내디자인학회 2006년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.215-219
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    • 2006
  • According to increase of personal incomes, spread of automobiles, a five-day only work week and expansion of cultural life, modern people today are increasingly showing leisure time interests. Under such social circumstances in which people's spare time are gradually increasing, weekend trips accompanied with hotel staying are increasing to a greater extent rather than one-day trips. In Korea where differences between regions and four seasons are remarkable, the resort industry has developed in harmony with seasonal environments and regional characteristics. In particular, an increasing number of modern people living in the wellbeing era tends to visit spa resort hotels for recreation and health. This study intends to compare realities of local and foreign spa resort hotels and investigate space characteristics of local spa resort hotels for promotion of use. In this study, it has been found that the proposed addition of characteristic-oriented spaces to the existing recreation, service and basic facilities beside the fundamental accommodations would be able to remarkably elevate use of the hotels.

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서울시 강하분진중 수용성 성분의 강하량 (Deposition Amount of Soluble Components of Dustfall in Seoul)

  • 강병욱;강공언;김민영
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.240-246
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    • 1992
  • During the period from December, 1990 to November, 1991, dustfall samples were collected by deposit jar at 28 sites in Seoul area and the amount of deposits of seven dissolved components$(SO_4^{2-}, NO_3^-, NH_4^+, Na^+, Ca^{2+}, Mg^{2+})$ were measured. The total amount of deposit was in order of Spring > Fall > Winter > Summer, and the amount of soluble components were high in the northeast region (Sanggae and Jangwe) and southwest region (Sangdo, Kuro, Siheung and Oryu). Total amount of major soluble components highly depended on regional air flow rather than emission source characteristic, and showed the regional trend-Residential > Iidustrial > Commercial > Rural, and the seasonal trend-Winter > Fall > Spring > Summer.

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종관바람장에 따른 대구시의 계절별 대기질의 일변화 (Diurnal Variations of Air Quality under the Various Synoptic Wind Fields for Each Season over Taegu City)

  • 송은영;윤희경
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.113-130
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    • 1996
  • Diurnal variations of air quality for each season over Taeau city were analyzed using the characteristic features of the various synoptic wind fields. The air quality data which were monitored by four stations are the hourly averaged sulfur dioxide($SO_2$), total suspended particulate(TSP) and oxidants ($O_3$) during the period of 1989 to 1992. The various synoptic wind fields obtained from the 850 hPa geopotential height were divided in to four geostrophic wind directions and two geostrophic wind speeds for each seasons. The synoptic weather conditions were again subdivided info two categories using the lotal cloud amounts, The results shows that diurnal and seasonal variations of the air quality over Taegu city, such as sulfur dioxide, total suspended particulate and oxidants reseal the various characteristics under the same synoptic weather conditions.

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초압축형 웹드라마 <72초>의 스토리텔링 특성 연구 (A Study on Storytelling Characteristic of Super-compressed Web Drama "72 seconds")

  • 정원식
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제20권7호
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    • pp.1148-1155
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    • 2017
  • This study examined the storytelling characteristics of the super-compressed web drama "72 seconds". By analyzing all seasonal episodes of "72 seconds" and applying the various storytelling methodologies and related theories, this paper derived the main storytelling characteristics of "72 seconds" as follows. First, through the composition of the microscopic non-plot, the story value of empathy and fun is maximized, even though there is no dramatic composition compared to the general movie or drama. Second, by the specialization of everyday life, it leads to the transition from everyday experience to the new context. In other words, it provides a consensus through the cognitive expansion and interest by unfamiliarity of the ordinary experience to the audience. Third, based on the characteristics of super-compression and short theme, it utilizes fully stylistic narration like rapping. This makes the audience feel novel and further enhances the branding effect of content. And finally, based on various hybridity and variation, it uses remediation actively in all respects, especially comedy genre and comic factor.