• Water Engineering Research
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.81-99
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• 2004

Long term streamflow regime under virtual climate change scenario was examined. Rainfall forecast simulation of the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM2) of the Canadian Climate Center for modeling and analysis for the IPCC SRES B2 scenario was used for analysis. The B2 scenario envisions slower population growth (10.4 billion by 2010) with a more rapidly evolving economy and more emphasis on environmental protection. The relatively large scale of GCM hinders the accurate computation of the important streamflow characteristics such as the peak flow rate and lag time, etc. The GCM rainfall with more than 100km scale was downscaled to 2km-scale using the space-time stochastic random cascade model. The HEC-HMS was used for distributed hydrologic model which can take the grid rainfall as input data. The result illustrates that the annual variation of the total runoff and the peak flow can be much greater than rainfall variation, which means actual impact of rainfall variation for the available water resources can be much greater than the extent of the rainfall variation.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2009년도 정기 학술발표대회
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• pp.13-24
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• 2009

This paper introduces various kinds of applications of the scenario-based seismic risk assessment in Taiwan. Seismic scenario simulation (SSS) is a GIS-based technique to assess distribution of ground shaking intensity, soil liquefaction probability, building damages and associated casualties, interruption of lifeline systems, economic losses, etc. given source parameters of an earthquake. The SSS may integrate with rapid earthquake information release system to obtain valuable information and to assist in decision-making processes to dispatch rescue and medical resources efficiently. The SSS may also integrate with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to evaluate various kinds of risk estimates, such as average annual loss and probable maximum loss in one event, in a probabilistic sense and to help proposing feasible countermeasures.

• 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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• 제33권8호
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• pp.655-667
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• 2006

본 논문은 목표 및 시나리오 기반의 요구사항을 이용하여 기능점수 (function point)를 산정하는 방법을 제안한다. 기능점수는 소프트웨어의 규모를 계산하는 방법으로 널리 사용되고 있으며 비용계산의 기본자료가 된다. 기능접수를 산정하기 위해서는 요구사항 도출 및 분석이 선행되어야 하나 기존의 기능점수 방법론은 이를 다루지 않고 있다. 한편 시스템 개발의 초기단계에서 대부분의 요구사항은 자연어 형태로 수집된다. 목표와 시나리오 방법론은 자연어 형태의 요구사항을 사용하여 요구사항을 도출하고 분석하는 방법으로 널리 사용되고 있으며 추적성에 대한 장점을 가지고 있다. 그러므로 목표 및 시나리오 기반의 요구사항으로부터 기능점수를 산정 할 수 있다면 요구사항과 기능접수 간의 추적성 관리가 쉬워진다. 이에 본 논문에서는 목표와 시나리오 기반의 요구사항으로부터 기능점수를 산정하는 방안을 제안한다. 제안된 방안은 자연어 형태로 기술된 목표 및 시나리오로부터 기능접수 분석에 필요한 규칙을 제공한다. 제안된 방안은 Order Processing System 예제를 통해 적용 방안을 설명한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.108-120
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• 2003

In assessing the long term post closure radiological safety assessment of a potential HLW repository in Korea, three categories of uncertainties exist. The first one is the scenario uncertainty where series of different natural events are translated into written statements. The second one is the modeling uncertatinty where different mathematical models are applied for an identical scenario. The last one is the data uncertainty which can be expressed in terms of probabilistic density functions. In this analysis, three different scenarios are seleceted; a small well scenario, a radiolysis scenario, and a naturally discharged scenario. The MASCOT-K and the AMBER, probabilistic safety assessment codes based on connection of sub-modules and a compartment theory respectively, are applied to assess annual individual doses for a generic biosphere. Results illustrate that for a given scenario, predictions from two different codes fairly match well each other But the discrepancies for the different scenarios are significant. However, total doses are still well below the guideline of 2 mRem/yr. Detailed analyses with model and data uncertainties are underway to further assure the safety of a Korean reference dispsoal concept.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.279-288
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• 2017

The Material Transportation Capability Analysis Method in North Korea includes adversary's activities such as destruction of bridge which is one kind of choke points in the road network and surprise attack against resupply march unit. Also, the amount of damage on choke points in the road network and repair time depending on repair unit commitment must be reflected. In this study, a scenario encompassing plausible resupply transportation circumstances while counterattacking into NK will be established. Then, based on such scenario, a simulation model will be established and the result of simulation will be compared to the results of numeric example which has been used in the ROK Army. We demonstrate, through a certain Corps operation area, that the Scenario-based Simulation Model results predict the performance of resupply operation very well. Therefore, it makes sustainment planners and commanders do activities which is suitable for battlefield and should be used in the real situation. It is also a stochastic model.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.427-448
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• 2016

The stochastic phenomena of traffic network condition, such as traffic speed and density, are affected not only by exogenous traffic control but also by endogenous changes in service time during congestion. In this paper, we propose a mixed M/G/1 queuing model by introducing a condition-varying parameter of traffic congestion to reflect structural changes in the traffic network. We also develop congestion indices to evaluate network efficiency in terms of traffic flow and economic cost in traffic operating system using structure-changing queuing model, and perform scenario analysis according to various traffic network improvement policies. Empirical analysis using Korean highway traffic operating system shows that our suggested model better captures structural changes in the traffic queue. The scenario analysis also shows that occasional reversible lane operation during peak times can be more efficient and feasible than regular lane extension in Korea.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.91-103
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• 2003

Use case modeling on UML (Unified Modeling Language) is getting widely used in OOAD and CBD and it is considered a useful technique in dealing with the complexity of the requirements analysis. However, some of the problems with use case modeling are that it is not structured, difficult to handle non-functional requirements, and to analyze impacts among use cases. To alleviate these problems, we propose a scenario-based goal-oriented approach for use case modeling. The proposed approach is to apply a goal-oriented analysis method to use case modeling. Since goal-oriented analysis method is not systematic and many heuristics are involved, we have adopted scenarios as the basis for goal extraction. The proposed method is applied to CBIS (City Bus Information Subsystem) in ITS (Intelligent Transportation System) domain. The proposed approach helps software engineers to analyze the impact among use cases and represent non-functional requirements.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.539-546
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• 2001

Systematic procedure of developing radionuclide release scenarios was established based on FEP list and Interaction Matrix for near-surface LILW repository. FEPs were screened by experts＇review in terms of domestic situation and combined into scenarios on the basis of Interaction Matrix analysis. Under the assumption of design scenario, The system domain was divided into three sections: Near-field, Far-field and Biosphere. Sub-scenarios for each section were developed, and then scenarios for entire system were built up with sub-scenarios of each section. Finally, sixteen design scenarios for near-surface repository were evaluated A reference scenario and other noteworthy scenarios were selected through experts＇scenario screening.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.261-263
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• 2008

Determining the most likelihood earthquake scenario in one region is very important for performing an earthquake-resistant design. The most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected by performing deaggregation, who classifies earthquakes that occur ground motion exceeding a specific acceleration as each distance and each earthquake magnitude. If earthquakes are classified, the most likelihood earthquake scenario can be selected. Earthquake hazard analysis method that have to be performed before deaggregation follows the method that Ministry of Construction & Transportation presented. As a result of performing deaggregation at longitude 127.35 and latitude 34.7, presentable seismic ground motion scenarios can be selected at each recurrence period.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.255-269
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• 2003

The objective of this study was to estimate human exposure to benzo (a)pyrene through multimedia/multi-pathway exposure scenario. The human exposure scenario for benzo(a)pyrene was consisted of 12 multiple exposure pathways, and the multipathway human exposure model based on this scenario constituted. In this study, the multipathway human exposure model was used to estimate the concentrations in the exposure contact media, human intake factors and lifetime average daily dose (LAD $D_{model}$) of benzo(a)pyrene in the environment. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the important parameters and Monte-Carlo simulation was undertaken to examine the uncertainty of the model. The total LAD $D_{model}$ was estimated to be 5.52${\times}$10$^{-7}$ mg/kg-day (2.06${\times}$10$^{-7}$ -8.65${\times}$10$^{-7}$ mg/kg-day) using the multipathway human exposure model. The inhalation dose accounted for 78% of the total LADD, whereas ingestion and dermal contact intake accounted for 20.2% and 1.8% of the total exposure, respectively. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the most significant contributing input parameter was benzo (a)pyrene concentration of ambient air. Consequently, exposure via inhalation in outdoor/indoor air was the highest compared with the exposure via other medium/pathways.