• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk-aversion

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기술이전에서의 위험분산: 사후적 옵션(ex-post option) 계약

  • Lee, Jeong-Dong;Ryu, Tae-Gyu;Lee, Seong-Sang
    • Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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    • 2004.02a
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    • pp.264-287
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    • 2004
  • The minimum royalty should have two objectives. One is to guarantee the minimum license payment and the other is to screen the eligible licensee to prevent the licensee`s strategic behavior. In the licensing contract for public-to-private technology transfer, the latter plays more important role than the former in viewpoint of the successful technology transfer and commercialization. However, the minimum royalty falls into a dilemma to increasing the risk on the part of licensee in case of failure in technology transfer and commercialization. In our study, ex-post option contract will be suggested as a risk sharing mechanism to overcome above dilemma. The ex-post option contract means the contract which the licensee has the option whether to go or not at the time of manufacturing stage. To proof the usefulness of ex-post option contract, it is shown in the study that expected utility of a licensor and a licensee can increase with a certain constraint, which depends on degree of uncertainty and licensee`s risk aversion, after introducing the ex-post option contract. In spite of this constraint, the usefulness of ex-post option contract may be highly appreciated because its constraint is quite normal case in the real world.

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The Determinants of Attitudes toward Nuclear Power Plant : The Effects of Earthquake Experience and the Reduction in Electricity Charges (원전 유치에 대한 태도의 결정요인: 지진 경험의 영향 및 전기요금 감면 효과)

  • Kim, Jee Young;Oh, Hyungna
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.139-160
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    • 2018
  • Using survey data of selected 1,349 individuals nationwide in Korea, we measure the influencing factors for the acceptance of nuclear power and estimates the probability of acceptance under several scenarios with different percentages of monetary compensation. Results of panel probit demonstrate that nuclear risk aversion tendency was found to be higher in case of female, younger age, past experience of extreme event such as an earthquake. However, the residents' residency nearby the nuclear power plant was not related to the risk-aversion tendency. In addition, we found that the nuclear acceptance is improved when the monetary compensation rate is increased. Although the policy demand intended to reduce GHG emissions in South Korea, the expansion of nuclear power is not be easy due to the occurrence of recent strong earthquakes because the risk attitude of an individual is influenced by subjective assessments formed through direct and indirect experiences of natural disasters such as an earthquake. Our results suggest that the opposition to construction of nuclear power plant is expected to be further intensified especially when combined with the experiences of threatening earthquakes. As a result, the debate and policy conflicts of nuclear power plants will consistently continue and large social costs are apparent for the acceptance of nuclear power plant.

Prospect Theory and Risk Preferences of Real Estate Development Companies (부동산 개발 및 공급 기업의 손익과 경영진의 위험 선호도)

  • Kim, Byungil;Kim, Won Tae;Chung, Do-Bum
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.83-88
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    • 2022
  • Companies make decisions with risks such as choosing an investment plan in order to pursue profits. This study explained the decision making of the management of construction companies in South Korea using the tendency to avoid losses in the Prospect Theory. To this end, 20-year financial data of 2,881 companies engaged in real estate development, which have to bear the greatest risk among the construction industry, were collected. The collected companies were roughly classified based on the reference point, and the causal relationship between average return on equity and risk preference by group was empirically analyzed through regression analysis. As a result, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group above the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with low uncertainty in order not to lose additional money. In addition, it was confirmed that if the average return on equity of a company decreases for the group below the reference point, it tends to select an investment plan with high uncertainty to move to the profit area. This result is exactly consistent with the loss aversion tendency of the Prospect Theory.

The Impact of An Interaction between Product Quality and Perceived Risk on Seller Profit

  • Seung HUH
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study examines the effect of full information disclosure on seller profit when there exists information asymmetry between sellers and buyers, focusing on the risk averseness of buyers. By investigating the interaction between product quality and perceived risk through online sales data, we attempt to figure out the incentive structure of full information disclosure specifically when buyers are risk-averse, so that we can suggest more feasible information disclosure strategy to sellers. Research design, data and methodology: Our empirical model analyzes the sales data of collectible goods from a major online seller using Poisson regression. In our model, we have specifically considered risk-averseness of buyers by estimating the interaction effect between the product quality and perceived risk on seller profit, aiming for a more precise empirical analysis on sellers' incentive structure of full disclosure. Results: Our empirical analysis strongly supports the effect of interaction between product quality and perceived risk, showing that the incentive for full disclosure is much stronger when product quality is higher, and vice versa. Therefore, sellers are strongly encouraged to voluntarily reveal product weaknesses when their product quality is higher than average, while it is more profitable to hide any product defects when quality claim is lower than average. Conclusions: This study supports the related literature by confirming economic incentives for full disclosure, and also supplements and strengthens previous studies by presenting that the effect of interaction between product quality and perceived risk strongly affects seller profit. Our unique finding supports both mandatory disclosure and voluntary disclosure arguments and presents practical implications to marketing managers by suggesting that seller's incentive for revealing weaknesses depends on the level of seller's product quality.

On the Bayesian Fecision Making Model of 2-Person Coordination Game (2인 조정게임의 베이지안 의사결정모형)

  • 김정훈;정민용
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.113-143
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    • 1997
  • Most of the conflict problems between 2 persons can be represented as a bi-matrix game, because player's utilities, in general, are non-zero sum and change according to the progress of game. In the bi-matrix game the equilibrium point set which satisfies the Pareto optimality can be a good bargaining or coordination solution. Under the condition of incomplete information about the risk attitudes of the players, the bargaining or coordination solution depends on additional elements, namely, the players' methods of making inferences when they reach a node in the extensive form of the game that is off the equilibrium path. So the investigation about the players' inference type and its effects on the solution is essential. In addition to that, the effect of an individual's aversion to risk on various solutions in conflict problems, as expressed in his (her) utility function, must be considered. Those kinds of incomplete information make decision maker Bayesian, since it is often impossible to get correct information for building a decision making model. In Baysian point of view, this paper represents an analytic frame for guessing and learning opponent's attitude to risk for getting better reward. As an example for that analytic frame. 2 persons'bi-matrix game is considered. This example explains that a bi-matrix game can be transformed into a kind of matrix game through the players' implicitly cooperative attitude and the need of arbitration.

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Private Equity Valuation under Model Uncertainty

  • BIAN, Yuxiang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • The study incorporates model uncertainty into the private equity (PE) valuation model (SWY model) (Sorensen et al., 2014) to evaluate how model uncertainty distorts the leverage and valuations of PE funds. This study applies a continuous-time model to PE project valuation, modeling the LPs' goal as multiplier preferences provided by Anderson et al. (2003), and assuming that LPs' aversion to model uncertainty causes endogenous belief distortions with entropy as a measure of model discrepancies. Concerns regarding model uncertainty, according to the theoretical model, have an unclear effect on LPs' risk attitude and GPs' decision, which is based on the value of the PE asset. It also demonstrates that model uncertainty lowers the certainty-equivalent valuation of the LPs. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the Full-spanning risk model with the Non-spanned risk model, and they match the intuitive economic reasoning. The most important implication is that model uncertainty will have negative effects on the LPs' certainty-equivalent valuation but has ambiguous effects on the portfolio allocation choice of liquid wealth. Our works contribute to two literature streams. The first is the literature that models the PE funds. The second is the literature introduces model uncertainty into standard finance models.

Impacts of Individual and Technical Characteristics on Perceived Risk and User Resistance of Mobile Payment Services (개인 및 기술 특성이 모바일 결제 서비스의 지각된 위험과 수용저항에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sanghyun;Park, Hyun-Sun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.239-253
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates to investigate the factors that influence user resistance of mobile payment services. We suggested individual and technical characteristics of mobile payment services as factors influencing perceived risk and user resistance. In addition, we suggested negative security recognition as moderating variable. To test the proposed hypotheses, we collected 349 survey responses from the users of mobile payment services and conducted structural equation modeling with SmartPLS2.0. The results show that, first, negative social influence, risk aversion and distrust in existing services had an effect on the perceived risk. Second, the pace of change and vulnerability had an effect on the perceived risk. Third, perceived risk affected the user resistance while negative security recognition is related to the relationship between perceived risk and user resistance.

Effects of Change Agent\`s Positive Self Image and Risk Tolerance on Change Acceptance and Work Adaptation (변화대응 및 업무적응에 대한 긍정적 자기관과 모험 수용성의 영향)

  • 이주일;이경옥
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.59-87
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    • 2000
  • The hypothesis of this study is that change acceptance and work adaptation of change agents are influenced by positive self-image and risk tolerance. In order to examine the hypothesis, this study was performed with 305 change agents from six branches of a conglomerate company. Specifically, self-image was measured by locus of control, self-efficacy, self-esteem, and positive affectivity; risk tolerance was measured by tolerance for ambiguity, risk aversion, and openness to experience. The result of this study indicated that self-image and risk tolerance significantly predicted change acceptance and work adaptation. Especially, the results of structural model revealed that change acceptance mediated the relationship between characteristic variables (such as self image and risk tolerance in this study) and work adaptation. Based on the results, we suggest that change agents keep developing positive self-image and risk tolerance in order to play the key role in leading organizational change.

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Effects of Change Agent's Positive Self Image and Risk Tolerance on Change Acceptance and Work Adaptation (변화대응 및 업무적응에 대한 긍정적 자기관과 모험 수용성의 영향)

  • Lee, Ju-Il;Lee, Kyung-Ok
    • Survey Research
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.59-87
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    • 2000
  • The hypothesis of this study is that change acceptance and work adaptation of change agents are influenced by positive self-image and risk tolerance. In order to examine the hypothesis, this study was performed with 305 change agents from six branches of a conglomerate company. Specifically, self-image was measured by locus of control, self-efficacy, self-esteem, and positive affectivity; risk tolerance was measured by tolerance for ambiguity, risk aversion, and openness to experience. The result of this study indicated that self-image and risk tolerance significantly predicted change acceptance and work adaptation. Especially, the results of structural model revealed that change acceptance mediated the relationship between characteristic variables (such as self image and risk tolerance in this study) and work adaptation. Based on the results, we suggest that change agents keep developing positive self-image and risk tolerance in order to play the key role in leading organizational change.

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An Experimental Study on the Prospect Theory (전망이론에 관한 실험연구)

  • Guahk, Seyoung
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2017
  • This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).