• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk of Investment

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채권시장 자본유출입과 무위험 금리평형 이탈 (Debt Investment Outflows and Inflows in Korea and Covered Interest Parity Deviation)

  • 조갑제
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제47권1호
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    • pp.181-198
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    • 2022
  • This paper investigates the arbitrage effect by the covered interest parity (CIP) deviation, as well as other push or pull factor effect on capital inflows and ouflows in the Korean bond market, by utilizing OLS, TSLS, IRF and VDC in EC model. The sample period covers February 2002 to December 2020. It is found that, the swap basis reflecting the CIP deviations have the significant effects on both debt investment inflows and debt investment outflows. Also, it is found that, the Korean risk factors have decreasing effects on foreigner's investment in the Korean bonds, while the global risk factors have decreasing effects on Korean resident's investment in the foreign bonds.

손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정 (Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects)

  • 구석모;이성훈;이승재
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • 국내 민간투자사업의 추진 방식 중 수익형 민간투자사업은 수요 위험이 존재하는 방식이다. 수요 위험이 현실화 될 경우 민간사업자는 예상보다 낮은 수입으로 인해 재무적인 어려움을 겪으며, 정부도 안정적인 사회기반시설 운영에 차질을 빚을 수 있다. 따라서 정부는 수요 위험에 따른 위험 분담 정책을 다양하게 적용해 오고 있다. 하지만 정부의 위험 분담은 수요의 불확실성으로 인한 정부의 우발채무이며, 실시협약의 문구로 표현되어 기존의 전통적인 사업평가 방식인 NPV 방식으로는 위험을 계량화 할 수 없다. 본 연구는 수요 위험 분담 정책의 하나로 2015년에 도입된 손익공유형 방식(BTO-a)을 대상으로 수요 위험을 고려한 정부의 투자위험 분담 가치를 산정하는데 목적을 두고 있다. 투자위험 분담은 금융에서의 옵션(option) 형태를 갖게 된다. 민간사업자는 수입이 감소했을 때 정부로 부터 보조금을 청구할 권리를 가지고 있으며, 반대로 정부는 일정 조건하에서 보조금을 지급할 의무를 가지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 Black-Scholes 옵션가격결정 모형을 활용하여 투자위험 분담의 가치추정 방법론을 정립하고 사례 사업을 통해 결과의 적정성을 살펴보았다. 사례 사업은 제안된 고속도로 민간투자사업을 대상으로 하였으며, 분석결과 투자위험 분담 가치는 약 120억원으로 추정되어 민간이 투자한 투자비의 약 4%를 차지하는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 정부가 투자위험을 분담함으로써 120억원의 재정지원을 추가로 투입하는 효과로 볼 수 있다. 교통량 위험을 확률변수로 가정할 경우 사례사업에서 도출된 옵션가치는 평균이 122억원이고 표준편차는 36.7억원으로 도출되었다. 누적분포를 도출한 결과 90% 확률 구간의 옵션가치가 69억원에서 188억원의 범위에서 결정될 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법은 미래수요의 불확실성하에서 정부와 민간사업자가 더 나은 위험 분석과 투자위험 분담에 대한 경제적인 가치를 이해하는데 도움을 줄 것으로 기대한다.

매도후임대의 리스크 대비 성과의 비교분석: 선박투자회사 출자 및 선박 인수 사례를 중심으로 (A Comparative Analysis of Risk-to-Performance of Sale and Lease Back: Based on the cases of ship investment company investment and ship acquisition)

  • 장욱
    • 아태비즈니스연구
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - I analyzes risk-to-performance evaluated in the market using data from sale and lease back. Specifically, I analyze from the perspective of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back based on the cases of investment by ship investment companies and acquisition of ships. Design/methodology/approach - I use 49 sale and lease back data from 2017 to 2019 for empirical analysis. Findings - The main results of this paper are as follows. First, after sale and lease back of domestic ships, the average amount of sales by the leased shipping company is 25.1 billion won, the average amount of investment by the purchased financial institution is 14.6 billion won (60%) and the average length of the ship is nine years. In ship finance, sale and lease back is deemed to be appropriately used as a means of restructuring for a large amount of money. Second, the main risk factor for sale and lease back of domestic ships is credit risk and can be measured in VaR in practice. As a result of the empirical analysis, the average credit risk burden ratio is 9%. As a major risk factor, low creditworthiness of restructuring companies is the key. Third, as a result of measuring the profitability of financial institutions that purchase sale and lease back of domestic ships at a net current price, it has an average value of 300 million won, but the deviation by case is very large. Fourth, the risk adjusted performance of sale and lease back of domestic ships is 0.54 on average compared to the total risk capital, and 0.52 compared to the stock-risk capital, and as with profitability earlier, the deviation of each case is very large and misaligned. In order to boost the sale and lease back market for large and long-term assets, in order to overcome low profitability as a prerequisite for future participation of commercial purchased financial institutions, it is expected that purchase decisions based on expectations versus risk will be necessary. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper are expected to broaden the understanding of sale and lease back and foster the ability to assess long-term risk and performance. Based on this, it is believed that rapid restructuring of companies through sale and lease back of large amounts of long-term assets will greatly increase the utility of the domestic financial market.

Capability, Service Orientation, and Performance in the Investment Management Industry

  • Lee, Kang Duck;Jung, Chang Ho;Kim, Yong Jin
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.597-625
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    • 2015
  • Prior research has emphasized the significant effect of service orientation on organizational performance. However, little research on service orientation has been conducted in the financial field, including the investment management service industry in which high quality service for clients is required. In this paper, we propose a research model that centers on the concept of service orientation as a type of dynamic capability affecting firm performance. The research variables include job competency, risk management capability, operational capability, service orientation, and service performance. We assume that service orientation partially mediates the effects of risk management capability and operational capability on service performance. To test the model, we collected data from 391 fund managers in 86 teams (37 investment management companies) and analyzed it with partial least squares (PLS) method. Each of the 391 fund managers was asked to answer team level measures, which is effective for team level analysis. We find that job competency positively affects both risk management capability and operational capability, which in turn affect service orientation. Risk management capability and operational capability are assumed to directly affect service performance. However, risk management capability does not influence perceived service performance, whereas operational capability does affect it. This result indicates that risk management capability does not directly affect service performance. However, via service orientation, considering that risk management inconveniences customers and is geared to enhance service orientation, service performance is positively affected. Operational capability does not influence service orientation, whereas it affects perceived service performance. This result reveals that operational capability directly affects firm performance. As expected, service orientation significantly affects the service performance perception of fund managers. This study contributes to the literature by introducing service orientation to the financial industry and measures and tests team-level service performance. Our findings also provide insights to practitioners because to enhance team performance, managers must focus on service orientation in addition to operational capability.

실물 옵션과 전략적 의사 결정 (Real Options and Strategic Decision Analysis)

  • 김기홍;오형식
    • 대한산업공학회지
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.221-226
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    • 2007
  • This paper suggests a valuation framework of investment project using the concept of real options. We show the valuation process of real assets using the risk-neutral pricing. Especially, we focus on the investment lag. Real assets have investment lag in general. The decision time and the payment time are not identical. So the investment lag should be considered when valuing real assets for reality. We provide the valuation process for real assets, including R&D project. The results of this paper can be used for the real assets valuation and strategic decision analysis.

한국기업의 베트남지역 해외직접투자 패턴에 관한 연구 (A Study on Foreign Direct Investment Pattern of Korean Enterprises in Vietnam)

  • 김희준
    • 통상정보연구
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.125-144
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study is to research the investment environment of Vietnam and analyze the actual investment state of Korean enterprises in Vietnam and seek for the points at issue. In general, the investment environment in Vietnam shows both a positive side and negative side. However Vietnamese market is a attractive one as ever for direct investment of Korean enterprises considering their constant economy growth, investment increase of foreign company for Vietnam, China risk. And the point at issue in investment of Korean Enterprises is as follows. That is, inclining to manufacturing, preference of independence investment, small-sized investment by small and medium enterprises, preference of greenfield investment, restricted purpose of investment, insufficiency of infrastructure for logistics, electric power, legal system. The results of the study indicate mainly that the investment of Korean enterprise into Vietnam needs a switchover of the third service trade-tertiary industry, collaboration with Vietnamese enterprise through joint venture investment, a large-scale investment for Vietnam domestic market and neighboring countries' market, practical use of M&A with existing Vietnamese enterprise and diverse purpose for investment.

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노동투자비효율성에 대한 감사인의 반응 (How Do Auditors Respond to Labor Investment Inefficiency?)

  • 조정은
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.593-604
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    • 2022
  • 본 연구는 기업의 노동투자비효율성에 대한 감사인의 반응에 대해 분석하였다. 구체적으로 노동투자비효율성이 감사보수와 감사시간에 미치는 영향에 대해 검증하였다. 비효율적인 노동투자가 이루어지는 기업일수록 감사인들은 사업위험을 높게 평가하여 감사위험이 증가한 것으로 인식하게 된다. 이로 인해 높아진 감사위험을 낮추기 위해 감사범위를 확대하고 충분한 감사증거를 수집하려는 유인이 있다. 따라서 감사인들은 더 높은 감사보수를 요구하고, 추가된 감사노력으로 인해 감사시간이 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 2002년부터 2018년까지 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장에 상장된 기업을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 노동투자에 대한 비효율성이 증가할수록 감사보수와 감사시간은 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 감사인들이 노동투자의 비효율성이 높은 기업에 대해 사업위험이 높은 것으로 평가하여 이에 대한 보상으로 높은 감사보수를 요구한다는 것으로 해석된다. 또한 감사인들이 감사위험을 낮추기 위해 추가적인 감사시간을 투입한다는 것을 시사하고 있다. 본 연구는 기업의 경쟁력을 결정하는 중요한 요소인 인력에 대한 투자가 비효율적으로 이루어지는 경우 감사보수와 감사시간이 증가한다는 실증적인 근거를 제시하였다는 점에서 공헌점을 찾을 수 있다.

중국진출 한국수산물가공무역기업의 후속투자 결정요인 (A Study on the determinants of Korean Fisheries Processing Trade Firms' Sequential FDI in China)

  • 장영수;장춘봉
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.133-162
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    • 2008
  • In 1970, direct overseas investment in Korean fisheries started to sell the frozen marine products to Singapore with establishing local subsidiary. Direct overseas investment in China has carried out since Korea and China established diplomat relationship in 1992. the former day, The Korea invested indirectly in China via Hong Kong. It has reported that 253 local subsidiaries applied to China government permit at the end of 2004. The results will make a decision on whether to invest continuously. The results of actual proof analysis has announced that a successful investment of fishery company is mainly influenced in its own government policy. Many advantages of tax and administration for foreign company in China have been changed and vanished comparing to the beginning time of entering china. So. it is imperative for Korean government to take measures to changing policy of Chinese government. The early days, investment of fishery company is type of resources and abundant resources will affect succeeding investment. Nowadays, the type of the investment is the production oriented investment. And then many direct investment linked the production oriented investment have been conducted in many area in China. So. the production oriented investment will affect logistics and successful investment in China. And, The factor of Market potential in Market Factors in the middle of changing market oriented investment will conclude whether to invest. As the china exchange system changed from the fixed exchange system to the fluctuating exchange system. Risk of exchange rate will affect corporate's parent business. The local risk (regulation of import and export, remittance) will affect succeeding investment of corporate's parent.

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암호화폐 개인 특성이 투자의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증적 연구 (An Empirical Study on the Effect of Cryptocurrency Personal Characteristics on Investment Intentions )

  • 김상일;서재석;김정욱
    • 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.147-160
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    • 2023
  • Unlike other currencies, cryptocurrency is not a currency used for general transactions, but is currently applied to various investment assets and its scope is expanding. The purpose of this study is to the effect of personal characteristics on investment intention. As a theoretical background, it was verified by applying the Extended Technical Acceptance Model (ETAM). self-confidence propensity, bandwagon propensity, risk tolerance propensity, network externality, attitude, and Investment intention were composed of variables. The research method collected data from 871 people who had experience in cryptocurrency investment through a survey and analyzed it after excluding the data of 71 people who were judged to be inappropriate. The structural equation modeling method using AMOS was used. As a result of this paper, five hypotheses were accepted as statistically significant. This study concluded that self-confidence propensity, bandwagon propensity, risk tolerance propensity, network externality, and attitude had statistically significant effects on Investment intention. In this respect, this study will be able to provide useful information for cryptocurrency research.

Stationary distribution of the surplus process in a risk model with a continuous type investment

  • Cho, Yang Hyeon;Choi, Seung Kyoung;Lee, Eui Yong
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.423-432
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we stochastically analyze the continuous time surplus process in a risk model which involves a continuous type investment. It is assumed that the investment of the surplus to other business is continuously made at a constant rate, while the surplus process stays over a given sufficient level. We obtain the stationary distribution of the surplus level and/or its moment generating function by forming martingales from the surplus process and applying the optional sampling theorem to the martingales and/or by establishing and solving an integro-differential equation for the distribution function of the surplus level.