• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk model

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Multivariate Analysis of Predictive Factors for the Severity in Stable Patients with Severe Injury Mechanism (중증 손상 기전의 안정된 환자에서 중증도 예측 인자들에 대한 다변량 분석)

  • Lee, Jae Young;Lee, Chang Jae;Lee, Hyoung Ju;Chung, Tae Nyoung;Kim, Eui Chung;Choi, Sung Wook;Kim, Ok Jun;Cho, Yun Kyung
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.49-56
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: For determining the prognosis of critically injured patients, transporting patients to medical facilities capable of providing proper assessment and management, running rapid assessment and making rapid decisions, and providing aggressive resuscitation is vital. Considering the high mortality and morbidity rates in critically injured patients, various studies have been conducted in efforts to reduce those rates. However, studies related to diagnostic factors for predicting severity in critically injured patients are still lacking. Furthermore, patients showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, who are injured via a severe trauma mechanism, may be at a risk of not receiving rapid assessment and management. Thus, this study investigates diagnostic factors, including physical examination and laboratory results, that may help predict severity in trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs. Methods: From March 2010 to December 2011, all trauma patients who fit into a diagnostic category that activated a major trauma team in CHA Bundang Medical Center were analyzed retrospectively. The retrospective analysis was based on prospective medical records completed at the time of arrival in the emergency department and on sequential laboratory test results. PASW statistics 18(SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA) was used for the statistical analysis. Patients with relatively stable vital signs and alert mental status were selected based on a revised trauma score of more than 7 points. The final diagnosis of major trauma was made based on an injury severity score of greater than 16 points. Diagnostic variables include systolic blood pressure and respiratory rate, glasgow coma scale, initial result from focused abdominal sonography for trauma, and laboratory results from blood tests and urine analyses. To confirm the true significance of the measured values, we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov one sample test and the Shapiro-Wilk test. When significance was confirmed, the Student's t-test was used for comparison; when significance was not confirmed, the Mann-Whitney u-test was used. The results of focused abdominal sonography for trauma (FAST) and factors of urine analysis were analyzed using the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. Variables with statistical significance were selected as prognostics factors, and they were analyzed using a multivariate logistics regression model. Results: A total of 269 patients activated the major trauma team. Excluding 91 patients who scored a revised trauma score of less than 7 points, 178 patients were subdivided by injury severity score to determine the final major trauma patients. Twenty-one(21) patients from 106 major trauma patients and 9 patients from 72 minor trauma patients were also excluded due to missing medical records or untested blood and urine analysis. The investigated variables with p-values less than 0.05 include the glasgow coma scale, respiratory rate, white blood cell count (WBC), serum AST and ALT, serum creatinine, blood in spot urine, and protein in spot urine. These variables could, thus, be prognostic factors in major trauma patients. A multivariate logistics regression analysis on those 8 variables showed the respiratory rate (p=0.034), WBC (p=0.005) and blood in spot urine (p=0.041) to be independent prognostic factors for predicting the clinical course of major trauma patients. Conclusion: In trauma patients injured via a severe trauma mechanism, but showing stable vital signs and alert mental status, the respiratory rate, WBC count and blood in the urine can be used as predictable factors for severity. Using those laboratory results, rapid assessment of major trauma patients may shorten the time to diagnosis and the time for management.

The Effect of Physical Pedestrian Environment on Walking Satisfaction - Focusing on the Case of Jinhae City - (물리적 보행환경이 보행만족도에 미치는 영향 - 진해시를 사례지역으로 -)

  • Byeon, Ji-Hye;Park, Kyung-Hun;Choi, Sang-Rok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.57-65
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    • 2010
  • Physical activity of the people has decreased due to a sedentary lifestyle according to developing the economy throughout the world. It is thought to increase the risk of chronic diseases, including obesity, diabetes, etc. People are interested in walking, which is an easy activity to engage in as an antidote to chronic diseases. The aim of this study is to increase the diminishing physical activity of modem society by inducing walking as part of everyday life through building a walking-based activity-friendly city where people can live merrily, safely and pleasantly. For this purpose, this study conducted a satisfaction survey to dwellers of Jinhae on the physical pedestrian environments which affect determining walking participation and intentions of people, and also provided a valid model to evaluate the effects of the physical environmental factors on walking satisfaction using factor analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The results are summarized as follows. The 18 variables of the physical pedestrian environments were selected based on pre-literature reviews. The results of the satisfaction surveys showed that the satisfaction of crossing aids in segments was highest, while the building feature was the lowest. Factor analysis was run through a two-step process. The first analysis was conducted to examine the adequacy of this factor analysis on the selected 18 variables. As a result, two variables were removed and the remaining 16 variables were extracted to the four factors by second analysis. Each factor was named function of path, effect of traffic, amenity and safety based on the each factor's commonality. Each factor score of the extracted four factors was set as the independent variable, while the overall walking satisfaction was set as the dependent variable. Then, the multiple linear regression analysis was conducted and showed that all four factors had a positive influence on the overall satisfaction of walking, especially the 'function of path' and 'amenity' factors, followed by 'effect of traffic' and 'safety'. The results of this research will be used as foundational data for creating a walking-based activity-friendly city.

HACCP Model for Quality Control of Sushi Production in the Eine Japanese Restaurants in Korea (일본전문식당의 급식품질 개선을 위한 HACCP 시스템 적용 연구)

  • 김혜경;이복희;김인호;조경동
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.25-38
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to establish the microbiological quality standards applying the HACCP system on sushi items of Japanese restaurant in Korea. The study evaluated hygienic conditions of kitchen and workers, pH time-temperature relationship, and microbial assessments during whole process of sushi making in 2001. Overall hygienic conditions were normal for both kitchen and for workers by 3 point scale, but hygienic controls against the cross-contamination were still needed. Each process of sushi making was performed under the risk of microbial contamination, since pH value of most of ingredients was over pH 4.6 and also production time(3.5~6 hrs) were long enough to cause problems. Microorganisms were high enough to cause foodborne illness ranged 8.0$\times$10$^2$~3.3$\times$10$^{6}$ CFU/g of TPC and 1.0$\times$10$^1$~1.6$\times$10$^3$CFU/g of coliforms, although TPC, coliforms and Staphylcoccus aureus were within the standard limits (TPC 10$^2$~10$^{6}$ CFU/g, coliforms 10$^3$CFU/g). However, Salmonella and Vibrio parahaemolyticus were not detected. High populations TPC and coliforms were also found in the cooks' hands and cooking utensils(TPC 10$^2$~10$^{6}$ CFU/100cm$^2$and Coliforms 10$^1$~10$^3$CFU/100cm$^2$). Based on the CCP decision tree analysis, the CCPs were the holding steps far six sushi production line except the tuna and the thawing step for tuna sushi. In conclusion, overall state of sushi production was fairly good but much improvement was still needed.

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Ttrosine Hydroxylase in Japanese Medaka (Oryzias latipes): cDNA Cloning and Molecular Monitoring of TH Gene Expression As a Biomarker (송사리 Tyrosine Hydroxylase: cDNA 클로닝 및 생물지표로서의 TH 유전자 발현의 분자생물학적 추적)

  • Shin, Sung-Woo;Kim, Jung-Sang;Chon, Tae-Soo;Lee, Sung-Kyu;Koh, Sung-Cheol
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.131-137
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    • 2000
  • The release of hazardous waste materials into the environment poses serious risks in humans and ecosystems. The risk assessment of environmental pollutants including hazardous chemicals requires a comprehensive measurement of hazard and exposure of the chemicals that can be achieved by toxicity evaluation using a biological system such as biomarkers. In this report we have tried to develop a biomarker used to elucidate a molecular basis of, and to monitor abnormal behaviors caused by diazinon in Japanese medaka (Oryzias latipes) as a model organism. First, an attempt was made to clone tyrosine hydroxylase gene from Japanese medaka that would be a candidate for a biomarker for neuronal modulations and behaviors. For monitoring experiments at behavioral and molecular biological levels, the fish were treated under different sublethal conditions of diazinon and their behavioral responses were observed . In this study we have successfully cloned a partial TH gene from the medaka fish through PCR screening of an ovary cDNA library. DNA sequencing analysis revealed that the amplified fragment was 327 bp encoding 109 amino acids. Comparing the DNA sequence of medaka TH with other species, TH gene revealed the DNA sequence was completely identical to that of rat TH. In the RT-PCR, 330 Up of mRNA was consistently amplified in all the treated samples including control There were no significant differences in the TH expression level regardless of treating concentrations (1∼5,000 ppb) and time (0∼48 hr) The reason appeared to be that RT-PCR was not performed using through a quantitative analysis normalized against an actin gene expression. Organ or tissue - specific detection of TH activity and mRNA as biomarkers will be a useful monitoring tool for neurobehavioral changes in fish influenced by toxic chemicals. Furthermore, quantitative analysis of locomotive patterns and its correlation with the neurochemical and molecular data would be highly useful in measuring toxicity and hazard ofvarious environmental pollutants.

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A Study on the Effects of Meterological Factors on the Distribution of Agricultural Products: Focused on the Distribution of Chinese Cabbages (기상요인이 농산물 유통에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 배추 유통 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hyunjoung;Hong, Jinhwan
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2012
  • Agriculture is a primary industry that influenced by the weather or meterological factors more than other industry. Global warming and worldwide climate changes, and unusual weather phenomena are fatal in agricultural industry and human life. Therefore, many previous studies have been made to find the relationship between weather and the productivity of agriculture. Meterological factors also influence on the distribution of agricultural product. For example, price of agricultural product is determined in the market, and also influenced by the weather of the market. However, there is only a few study was made to find this link. The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of meterological factors on the distribution of agricultural products, focusing on the distribution of chinese cabbages. Chinese cabbage is a main ingredient of Kimchi, and basic essential vegetable in Korean dinner table. However, the production of chinese cabbages is influenced by weather and very fluctuating so that the variation of its price is so unstable. Therefore, both consumers and farmers do not feel comfortable at the unstable price of chinese cabbages. In this study, we analyze the real transaction data of chinese cabbage in wholesale markets and meterological factors depending on the variety and geography. We collect and analyze data of meterological factors such as temperatures, humidity, cloudiness, rainfall, snowfall, wind speed, insolation, sunshine duration in producing and consuming region of chinese cabbages. The result of this study shows that the meterological factors such as temperature and humidity significantly influence on the volume and price of chinese cabbage transaction in wholesale market. Especially, the weather of consuming region has greater correlation effects on transaction than that of producing region in all types of chinese cabbages. Among the whole agricultural lifecycle of chinese cabbages, 'seeding - harvest - shipment - wholesale', meterological factors such as temperature and rainfall in shipment and wholesale period are significantly correlated with transaction volume and price of crops. Based on the result of correlation analysis, we make a regression analysis to verify the meterological factors' effects on the volume and price of chines cabbage transaction in wholesale market. The results of stepwise regression analysis are shown in

    and
    . The type of chinese cabbages are categorized by 5 types, i.e. alpine, gimjang for winter, spring, summer, and winter crop, and all of the regression models are shown significant relationship. In addition, meterological factors in shipment and wholesale period are entered more in regression model than those in seeding and harvest period. This result implies that weather in consuming region is also important in the distribution of chinese cabbages. Based on the result of this study, we find several implications and recommendations for policy makers of agricultural product distribution. The goal of agricultural product distribution policy is to insure proper price and production cost for farmers and provide proper price and quality, and stable supply for consumers. Therefore, coping with the uncertainty of weather is very essential to make a fruitful effect of the policy. In reality, very big part of consumer price of chinese cabbage is made up of the margin of intermediaries, because they take the risk. In addition, policy makers make efforts for farmers to utilize AWIS (Agricultural Weather Information System). In order to do that, it should integrate the relevant information including distribution and marketing as well as production. Offering a consulting service to farmers about weather management is also expected to be a good option in agriculture and weather industry. Reflecting on the result of this study, the distribution authorities can offer the guideline for the timing and volume of harvest, and it is expected to contribute to the stable equilibrium of supply and demand of agricultural products.

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  • Altered Expression of ${\beta}_3$ Integrin on Sclerotic Aortic Valves in a Hypercholesterolemic Rabbit Model (고콜레스테롤혈증을 유발한 토끼의 대동맥 판막에서 ${\beta}_3$ Integrin 발현의 변화)

    • Park, Chan-Beom;Kim, Young-Du;Choe, Mi-Sun;Jin, Ung;Moon, Seok-Whan;Kim, Yong-Han;Kim, Chi-Kyung;Jo, Keon-Hyon;Kweon, Jong-Bum
      • Journal of Chest Surgery
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      • v.41 no.6
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      • pp.687-694
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      • 2008
    • Background: Although aortic valve sclerosis causes no significant hemodynamic alterations, it is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death and myocardial infarction. However, the role of ${\beta}_3$ integrin in aortic valve sclerosis remains unclear. Material and Method: Twenty male New Zealand rabbits were divided into two groups. Group 1 rabbits (n=10) received a normal chow diet, while group 2 (n=10) rabbits received a diet containing 1% cholesterol for 12 weeks. After the rabbits were euthanized, their aortic valves and ascending aortas were excised for analysis. Result: Total serum cholesterol ($2,148.3{\pm}1,012.5\;mg/dL$ versus $53.7{\pm}31.8\;mg/dL$, p<0.05), triglyceride ($240.4{\pm}218.3\;mg/dL$ versus $31.6{\pm}6.4\;mg/dL$, p<0.05), and low density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol($2,065.3{\pm}960.9\;mg/dL$ versus $29.1{\pm}30.9\;mg/dL$, p<0.05) levels were significantly higher in the cholesterol diet group compared with the normal diet group. Myofibroblasts and macrophages were more highly expressed in the aortic valve leaflets of rabbits in the cholesterol diet group than of those in the normal diet group. A real-time polymerase chain reaction revealed decreased ${\beta}_3$ integrin mRNA levels in the hypercholesterolemic aortic valves and aortas. Conclusion: The present study shows that hypercholesterolemia induces aortic valve sclerosis. These findings suggest that alterations in ${\beta}_3$ integrin may playa role in the development of aortic valve sclerosis.

    A Study on derivation of drought severity-duration-frequency curve through a non-stationary frequency analysis (비정상성 가뭄빈도 해석 기법에 따른 가뭄 심도-지속기간-재현기간 곡선 유도에 관한 연구)

    • Jeong, Minsu;Park, Seo-Yeon;Jang, Ho-Won;Lee, Joo-Heon
      • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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      • v.53 no.2
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      • pp.107-119
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      • 2020
    • This study analyzed past drought characteristics based on the observed rainfall data and performed a long-term outlook for future extreme droughts using Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) used duration of 1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months, a meteorological drought index, was applied for quantitative drought analysis. A single long-term time series was constructed by combining daily rainfall observation data and RCP scenario. The constructed data was used as SPI input factors for each different duration. For the analysis of meteorological drought observed relatively long-term since 1954 in Korea, 12 rainfall stations were selected and applied 10 general circulation models (GCM) at the same point. In order to analyze drought characteristics according to climate change, trend analysis and clustering were performed. For non-stationary frequency analysis using sampling technique, we adopted the technique DEMC that combines Bayesian-based differential evolution ("DE") and Markov chain Monte Carlo ("MCMC"). A non-stationary drought frequency analysis was used to derive Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves for the 12 locations. A quantitative outlook for future droughts was carried out by deriving SDF curves with long-term hydrologic data assuming non-stationarity, and by quantitatively identifying potential drought risks. As a result of performing cluster analysis to identify the spatial characteristics, it was analyzed that there is a high risk of drought in the future in Jeonju, Gwangju, Yeosun, Mokpo, and Chupyeongryeong except Jeju corresponding to Zone 1-2, 2, and 3-2. They could be efficiently utilized in future drought management policies.

    Temperature Compensation of Optical FBG Sensors Embedded Tendon for Long-term Monitoring of Tension Force of Ground Anchor (광섬유 센서 내장형 텐던을 이용한 그라운드 앵커의 장기 장력모니터링을 위한 온도보상)

    • Sung, Hyun-Jong;Kim, Young-Sang;Kim, Jae-Min;Park, Gui-Hyun
      • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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      • v.28 no.5
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      • pp.13-25
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      • 2012
    • Ground anchor method is one of the most popular reinforcing technology for slope in Korea. For the health monitoring of slope which is reinforced by permanent anchor for a long period, monitoring of the tension force of ground anchor is very important. However, since electromechanical sensors such as strain gauge and V/W type load cell are also subject to long-term risk as well as suffering from noise during long distance transmission and immunity to electromagnetic interference (EMI), optical FBG sensors embedded tendon was developed to measure strain of 7-wire strand by embedding FBG sensor into the center king cable of 7-wire strand. This FBG sensors embedded tendon has been successfully applied to measuring the short-term anchor force. But to adopt this tendon to long-term monitoring, temperature compensation of the FBG sensors embedded tendon should be done. In this paper, we described how to compensate the effect in compliance with the change of underground temperature during long-term tension force monitoring of ground anchors by using optical fiber sensors (FBG: Fiber Bragg Grating). The model test was carried out to determine the temperature sensitivity coefficient (${\beta}^{\prime}$) of FBG sensors embedded tendon. The determined temperature sensitivity coefficient ${\beta}^{\prime}=2.0{\times}10^{-5}/^{\circ}C$ was verified by comparing the ground temperatures predicted from the proposed sensor using ${\beta}^{\prime}$ with ground temperatures measured from ground thermometer. Finally, temperature compensations were carried out based on ${\beta}^{\prime}$ value and ground temperature measurement from KMA for the tension force monitoring results of tension type and compression type anchors, which had been installed more than 1 year before at the test site. Temperature compensated tension forces are compared with those measured from conventional load cell during the same measuring time. Test results show that determined temperature sensitivity coefficient (${\beta}^{\prime}$) of FBG sensors embedded tendon is valid and proposed temperature compensation method is also appropriate from the fact that the temperature compensated tension forces are not dependent on the change of ground temperature and are consistent with the tension forces measured from the conventional load cell.

    Private Income Transfers and Old-Age Income Security (사적소득이전과 노후소득보장)

    • Kim, Hisam
      • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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      • v.30 no.1
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      • pp.71-130
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      • 2008
    • Using data from the Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS), this study investigates private income transfers in Korea, where adult children have undertaken the most responsibility of supporting their elderly parents without well-established social safety net for the elderly. According to the KLIPS data, three out of five households provided some type of support for their aged parents and two out of five households of the elderly received financial support from their adult children on a regular base. However, the private income transfers in Korea are not enough to alleviate the impact of the fall in the earned income of those who retired and are approaching an age of needing financial assistance from external source. The monthly income of those at least the age of 75, even with the earning of their spouses, is below the staggering amount of 450,000 won, which indicates that the elderly in Korea are at high risk of poverty. In order to analyze microeconomic factors affecting the private income transfers to the elderly parents, the following three samples extracted from the KLIPS data are used: a sample of respondents of age 50 or older with detailed information on their financial status; a five-year household panel sample in which their unobserved family-specific and time-invariant characteristics can be controlled by the fixed-effects model; and a sample of the younger split-off household in which characteristics of both the elderly household and their adult children household can be controlled simultaneously. The results of estimating private income transfer models using these samples can be summarized as follows. First, the dominant motive lies on the children-to-parent altruistic relationship. Additionally, another is based on exchange motive, which is paid to the elderly parents who take care of their grandchildren. Second, the amount of private income transfers has negative correlation with the income of the elderly parents, while being positively correlated with the income of the adult children. However, its income elasticity is not that high. Third, the amount of private income transfers shows a pattern of reaching the highest level when the elderly parents are in the age of 75 years old, following a decreasing pattern thereafter. Fourth, public assistance, such as the National Basic Livelihood Security benefit, appears to crowd out private transfers. Private transfers have fared better than public transfers in alleviating elderly poverty, but the role of public transfers has been increasing rapidly since the welfare expansion after the financial crisis in the late 1990s, so that one of four elderly people depends on public transfers as their main income source in 2003. As of the same year, however, there existed and occupied 12% of the elderly households those who seemed eligible for the National Basic Livelihood benefit but did not receive any public assistance. To remove elderly poverty, government may need to improve welfare delivery system as well as to increase welfare budget for the poor. In the face of persistent elderly poverty and increasing demand for public support for the elderly, which will lead to increasing government debt, welfare policy needs targeting toward the neediest rather than expanding universal benefits that have less effect of income redistribution and heavier cost. Identifying every disadvantaged elderly in dire need for economic support and providing them with the basic livelihood security would be the most important and imminent responsibility that we all should assume to prepare for the growing aged population, and this also should accompany measures to utilize the elderly workforce with enough capability and strong will to work.

    A Study on Participation Intention and Herd Behavior on Domestic Securities Type Crowdfunding Investors: Focusing on the Theory of Planned Behavior (국내 증권형 크라우드펀딩 투자자의 참여의도와 무리행동에 관한 연구: 계획된 행동이론을 중심으로)

    • Hwang, Nakjin;Lee, So-young
      • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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      • v.15 no.2
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      • pp.1-18
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      • 2020
    • This study is to identify the influence of major variables that affect the participation intention of securities type crowdfunding investors and how participation intention and perceived behavioral control affect investors' herd behavior including indirect effect analysis based on the theory of planned behavior. The ultimate purpose of this study is to understand the investment behavior of securities type crowdfunding investors and to help the relevant parties to develop various policies and business plans to revitalize the system and protect investors. An online survey was conducted on people who are interested or have experience in securities type crowdfunding to receive a total of 276 responses. Excluding outliers, a total of 261 responses were taken into account for the final analysis. For the data analysis, structural equation model analysis using SPSS 22.0 and Amos 22.0 statistical package was conducted. As a result, two of the major variables of the theory of planned behavior-attitude and subjective norm-have been found to have a positive effect on the participation intention of securities type crowdfunding investors. And after analyzing the indirect effect, the participation intention was found to play a mediating role between attitude, subjective norm and herd behavior. However, the perceived behavioral control presented as a major variable of behavioral intention in the theory of planned behavior showed that the effect on participation intention was statistically insignificant. Instead, it was found to have a direct positive effect on herd behavior. This is significant because it empirically confirmed that even if investors perceive securities type crowdfunding as easy to participate, perceived behavioral control does not seem to have a significant impact on participation intention because securities type crowdfunding is an investment in an early-stage business with a high risk of loss. On the other hand, the study has great significance in that it empirically confirmed that domestic securities type crowdfunding investors perceive the funding progress information provided by the platform as a signal and imitate many other investors, showing herd behavior when they actually make an investment. It is expected that this study will provide meaningful insights for the policy making of crowdfunding supervisory offices and platform operators by empirically identifying major variables that influence the participation intentions and herd behavior of domestic securities type crowdfunding investors.


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