• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Reserve

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Comparison of complication rates after transvaginal ultrasound-guided oocyte pick-up procedures with respect to ovarian response

  • Gungor, Nur Dokuzeylul;Gurbuz, Tugba;Onal, Murat
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.142-148
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the complication rates of oocyte pick-up (OPU) procedures via transvaginal ultrasonography in patients with different levels of ovarian reserve. Methods: In total, 789 patients who underwent OPU procedures for in vitro fertilization (IVF) were included in the study. Results: Individuals with normal ovarian reserve had a 2.947-fold higher risk of complications in OPU procedures than individuals with low ovarian reserve, and individuals with high ovarian reserve had a 7.448-fold higher risk of complications than individuals with low ovarian reserve. In addition, a higher number of IVF trials was associated with an increased risk of complications. Conclusion: The results of this study show that OPU has a higher risk of complications, particularly severe pain, in patients with high ovarian reserve. It is thought that complications can be reduced by preferring mild stimulation in patients with high ovarian reserve. Collecting fewer oocytes is also associated with a lower risk of complications from OPU. Even if a patient's reserve is very good, fewer and higher-quality oocytes should be targeted with the use of the lowest possible dose of drugs.

Pension Risk Analysis in DC plans using Stochastic Simulation (시뮬레이션을 활용한 DC형 퇴직연금의 Pension Risk 분석)

  • Han, Jong-Hyun;Sung, Joo-Ho;Seo, Dong-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2014
  • This study calculates the employee receives severance pay scale are paid from the company in the DC system. In addition, by utilizing the reserve growth model were studied in accordance with shortfall risk levels generated by stochastic asset allocation. For the analysis, from 2004 to 2013 using the KOSPI returns and total bond yields were simulated. Scenario 1 is when compared to the severance reserve is insufficient. Scenario 2 is the same as if toy reserve this severance pay. During one period, depending on the asset allocation of stocks and bonds was confirmed that the probability pension risk does not occur. And we suggest that members of DC pension risk endeavor with the government and companies to avoid.

The meaning of anti-Müllerian hormone levels in patients at a high risk of poor ovarian response

  • Park, Hyun Jong;Lee, Geun Ho;Gong, Du Sik;Yoon, Tae Ki;Lee, Woo Sik
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.139-145
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    • 2016
  • Measurements of ovarian reserve play an important role in predicting the clinical results of assisted reproductive technology (ART). The ideal markers of ovarian reserve for clinical applications should have high specificity in order to determine genuine poor responders. Basal follicle-stimulating hormone levels, antral follicle count, and serum anti-$M{\ddot{u}}llerian$ hormone (AMH) levels have been suggested as ovarian reserve tests that may fulfill this requirement, with serum AMH levels being the most promising parameter. Serum AMH levels have been suggested to be a predictor of clinical pregnancy in ART for older women, who are at a high risk for decreased ovarian response. We reviewed the prognostic significance of ovarian reserve tests for patients undergoing ART treatment, with a particular focus on the significance of serum AMH levels in patients at a high risk of poor ovarian response.

A Study on the Quantitative Risk Level Calculation Model in Cooperation with the Reserve Fund (예비비와 연계한 정량적 리스크 수준 산정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Kwoak, Song-Hae;Park, Koo-Rack;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2016
  • Recent public information project, which has been organized mainly to large companies is a situation that is being reorganized to small and medium-sized systems integration company. However, many of the small and medium-sized companies lack knowledge of the systematic risk management. Thus, in connection with the revenue, it involves a number of problems. Therefore, in this paper, we present a risk element that occurs mainly in the field of the project, providing a model for measuring the risk element by risk level costs associated with this. Through the convergence, we aim at providing a management system that is able to make the project successfully accomplished, predicting the risk that occurs in advance to pursue the project; Based on the proposed model, it is possible to secure a proper size of reserve fund so it is expected to enable companies to ensure the cost of risk analysis.

Analysis of Loss Costs and Risk Reserve due to Risk Events for Aircraft Runway Construction (활주로 건설공사의 위험사건에 따른 손실비용 및 위험예비비 분석)

  • Kang, Hyun Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to derive risk events that occurred during aircraft runway construction and analyze loss costs for project participants. For this purpose, design change data, contracted statement and completed statement were investigated. The results of this study are as follows: There were 12 risk events in the process of construction, 5 design errors and 7 construction errors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events were calculated as KRW 726 million. Of the KRW 726 million that was increased due to risk events, about 52.57% was spent by the ordering agency, and about 47.43% contractors. The increased construction costs due to such risk events are about 4.86% of the direct construction costs of KRW 14.9 billion. Based on the results derived from these case studies, a method for estimating reserve costs and construction costs considering risk events is presented.

A M-TYPE RISK MODEL WITH MARKOV-MODULATED PREMIUM RATE

  • Yu, Wen-Guang
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.5_6
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    • pp.1033-1047
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we consider a m-type risk model with Markov-modulated premium rate. A integral equation for the conditional ruin probability is obtained. A recursive inequality for the ruin probability with the stationary initial distribution and the upper bound for the ruin probability with no initial reserve are given. A system of Laplace transforms of non-ruin probabilities, given the initial environment state, is established from a system of integro-differential equations. In the two-state model, explicit formulas for non-ruin probabilities are obtained when the initial reserve is zero or when both claim size distributions belong to the $K_n$-family, n $\in$ $N^+$ One example is given with claim sizes that have exponential distributions.

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Study on natural hedge strategy in Korean life insurance industry (우리나라 생명보험산업의 자연헤지에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sejoong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.271-286
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this paper is to evaluate whether longevity risk is properly managed in Korean life insurance industry by measuring longevity risk in the viewpoint of natural hedge. According to analysis, the sum of the reserve of annuity and that of whole life insurance appears to decrease in the case both reserve of annuity and whole life insurance are shocked by same degree and also the mortality rate of the aged policyholders is improved faster than that of the less aged policyholders. Although the sum of the reserves increases only when the mortality improvement of annuity policyholders is higher than that of whole life insurance policyholders by two times, more than 60% of reserve increase of annuity is found to be offset by natural hedge. Thus, it is judged that the longevity risk of Korea life insurance industry is properly managed by natural hedge.

Contingency and Management Reserves Estimation Method for Project Budget (프로젝트 예비비 편성 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukchun;Kang, Changwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2016
  • Many organizations have transformed their business in order to survive and compete in the future. They generate projects by creating a vision, using strategies and objectives with funds aligning strategies and make efforts to complete them successfully because project success leads to business success. All projects have triple constraints such as scope, time, and cost to be completed. Project cost performance is a key factor to achieve project goals and which is mostly related with risks among various cost drivers. Projects require a cost estimation method to complete them within their budget and on time. An accurate budget cannot be estimated due to the uncertainties and risks. Thus some additional money should be funded in addition to the base budget as a contingency reserve for identified risks and a management reserve for unidentified risks. While research on contingency reserve for identified risks included in project budget baseline have been presented, research on management reserve for unidentified risks included in total project budget is still scarce. The lack of research on estimation method and role of the management reserve have made project managers little confidence to estimate project budget accurately with reasonable basis. This study proposes a practical model to estimate budgets including contingency and management reserves for not only project cost management but also to keep the balance of organization's total funds to maximize return on investments for project portfolio management. The advantages of the proposed model are demonstrated by its application to construction projects in Korea and the processes to apply this model for verification are also provided.

Development of Power System Health Algorithm (전력계통 건전성 지수 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lim, Jin-Taek;Lee, Sung-Hun;Lee, Yeon-Chan;Choi, Jae-Seok;Choi, Hong-Seok;Joo, Joon-Young
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.63 no.10
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    • pp.1328-1336
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    • 2014
  • This paper proposes Power System Health Index(PSHI) newly. The paper describes several kind of power system health indices based on two main categories, which are adequacy and security. In adequacy, four kinds of health indices of Frequency, Voltage, Reserve(Operating Reserve Power and Frequency Regulation Reserve Power) and Overload of lines and transformers are proposed. In security, four kinds of health indices of Voltage(154kV, 345kV and 765kV), Overload of lines and transformers, Power flow constraint among areas and SPS are proposed. All indices are mapped with three domains, which are indicated as Health, Margin and Risk, defined with expert interview. While domains of health, margin and risk is defined similar with the conventional well being analysis of power system. The criterion of the domains is proposed using an interview with expert operators and practical reliability codes in Korea. The several kinds of health index functions, which are linear ratio, piecewise linear ration and reverse ratio function etc. are developed in this paper. It will be expected that the developed health indices can help operators to control power system more successfully and also prevent power system from accident as like as black out in future because operator can make a decision immediately based on more easily visual information of system conditions from too much indices acquisition of complex power system.

Prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder in orthopedic trauma patients and a call to implement the Injured Trauma Survivor Screen as a prospective screening protocol in the United States

  • Victoria J. Nedder;Mary A. Breslin;Vanessa P. Ho;Heather A. Vallier
    • Journal of Trauma and Injury
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is prevalent and is associated with protracted recovery and worse outcomes after injury. This study compared PTSD prevalence using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) with the prevalence of PTSD risk using the Injured Trauma Survivor Screen (ITSS). Methods: Adult trauma patients at a level I trauma center were screened with the PCL-5 (sample 1) at follow-up visits or using the ITSS as inpatients (sample 2). Results: Sample 1 (n=285) had significantly fewer patients with gunshot wounds than sample 2 (n=45) (8.1% vs. 22.2%, P=0.003), nonsignificantly fewer patients with a fall from a height (17.2% vs. 28.9%, P=0.06), and similar numbers of patients with motor vehicle collision (40.7% vs. 37.8%, P=0.07). Screening was performed at a mean of 154 days following injury for sample 1 versus 7.1 days in sample 2. The mean age of the patients in sample 1 was 45.4 years, and the mean age of those in sample 2 was 46.1 years. The two samples had similar proportions of female patients (38.2% vs. 40.0%, P=0.80). The positive screening rate was 18.9% in sample 1 and 40.0% in sample 2 (P=0.001). For specific mechanisms, the positive rates were as follows: motor vehicle collisions, 17.2% in sample 1 and 17.6% in sample 2 (P>0.999); fall from height, 12.2% in sample 1 and 30.8% in sample 2 (P=0.20); and gunshot wounds, 39.1% in sample 1 and 80.0% in sample 2 (P=0.06). Conclusions: The ITSS was obtained earlier than PCL-5 and may identify PTSD in more orthopedic trauma patients. Differences in the frequency of PTSD may also be related to the screening tool itself, or underlying patient risk factors, such as mechanism of injury, or mental or social health.