• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Modeling

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Relationship between Digital Contents Characteristics and Consumer's Usage Behavior in the Online Environment (온라인 환경에서 디지털콘텐츠의 특성과 소비행동의 관계)

  • Lee, Han-Suk
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.234-241
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    • 2011
  • The recent technology boom has created a new digital age. With the help of information technology consumers can have more power than ever and they use digital contents more than ever. This study relates consumer attitude to the recent digital contents using behavior about digital file-sharing. Through the use of the multimethod approach, we identify four characteristics can affect illegal digital contents using behavior. The methodology used was to take in depth look at the consumer with phenomenology as a qualitative research. We select 6 participants who have experience of digital content using. We also examine the structural configurations of the relationship between digital contents characteristics and illegal downloading intention. We surveyed 200 people who also had experience of digital content. This research gives theoretical and practical implication to the marketers related to online communication.

A Study on the Upper Ground Reinforcement Effect in Underground Cavern (지하공동 상부지층 보강효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ki Ho;Lim, Jong Se;Jang, Won Yil
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.275-283
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    • 2015
  • Excavation of underground space in soft ground implicate to the structure, such as subsidence. As a result, it has been acting as a serious risk to the stability of the roads and facilities. Therefore, in order to stabilize the soil stabilization and reinforcement of the structure, we have been using a number of methods and injecting material. In this study, we compared and analyzed the amount of subsidence regarding the ground reinforcement during underground excavation in soft ground by performing model test. And three-dimensional numerical analysis was performed using FLAC 3D. The subsidence was simulated numerically according to the tunnel excavation. The subsidence results of the model tests and numerical analyzes were relatively consistent. Thus comparing the ground subsidence by varying the reinforcement area on the numerical analysis was analyzed. As a results, three-dimensional numerical simulation could be regarded to simulate better on the ground subsidence by various kinds of underground excavation and it can be used as a material of subsidence prevention methods.

Uncertainty Analysis of a Pharmacokinetic Modeling for Inhalation Exposure of Benzene from the Use of Groundwater at Dwelling (거주지의 지하수사용에서 유래한 벤젠의 흡입노출에 대한 동적약리학 모델의 불확실성 분석)

  • 김상준;이현호;박지연;이유진;유동한;양지원
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.28-38
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    • 2004
  • This study presents the result of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a pharmacokinetic model which describes the distribution and removal of benzene at each organ when an indivisual inhales indoor contaminated air with benzene originated from groundwater. The pharmacokinetic model simulates the distribution of benzene deposited in organs of human body through inhalation of contaminated indoor air as well as degradation-metabolism in liver. This study focused on the uncertainty problem induced from the use of the single values for blood flow, partition coefficient, degradation constant, volume, etc. of each organ which was due to a lack of knowledge about these parameters or their measurements. To solve this problem, uncertainty analysis on the pharmacokinetic model was conducted simultaneously which would help understanding the risk assessment associated with VOCs.

Estimating Utility Function of In-Vehicle Traffic Safety Information Incorporating Driver's Short-Term Memory (운전자 단기기억 특성을 고려한 차내 교통안전정보의 효용함수 추정)

  • Kim, Won-Cheol;Fujiwara, Akimasa;Lee, Su-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2009
  • Most traffic information that drivers receive while driving are stored in their short-term memory and disappear within a few seconds. Contemporary modeling approaches using a dummy variable can't fully explain this phenomenon. As such, this study proposes to use utility functions of real-time in-vehicle traffic safety information (IVTSI), analyzing its safety impacts based on empirical data from an on-site driving experiment at signalized intersection approach with a limited visibility. For this, a driving stability evaluation model is developed based on driver's driving speed choice, applying an ordered probit model. To estimate the specified utility functions, the model simultaneously accounts for various factors, such as traffic operation, geometry, road environment, and driver's characteristics. The results show three significant facts. First, a normal density function (exponential function) is appropriate to explain the utility of IVTSI proposed under study over time. Second, the IVTSI remains in driver's short-term memory for up to nearly 22 second after provision, decreasing over time. Three, IVTSI provision appears more important than the geometry factor but less than the traffic operation factor.

Uncertainty Analysis on the Simulations of Runoff and Sediment Using SWAT-CUP (SWAT-CUP을 이용한 유출 및 유사모의 불확실성 분석)

  • Kim, Minho;Heo, Tae-Young;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.681-690
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    • 2013
  • Watershed models have been increasingly used to support an integrated management of land and water, non-point source pollutants, and implement total daily maximum load policy. However, these models demand a great amount of input data, process parameters, a proper calibration, and sometimes result in significant uncertainty in the simulation results. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is necessary to minimize the risk in the use of the models for an important decision making. The objectives of this study were to evaluate three different uncertainty analysis algorithms (SUFI-2: Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-Ver.2, GLUE: Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, ParaSol: Parameter Solution) that used to analyze the sensitivity of the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) parameters and auto-calibration in a watershed, evaluate the uncertainties on the simulations of runoff and sediment load, and suggest alternatives to reduce the uncertainty. The results confirmed that the parameters which are most sensitive to runoff and sediment simulations were consistent in three algorithms although the order of importance is slightly different. In addition, there was no significant difference in the performance of auto-calibration results for runoff simulations. On the other hand, sediment calibration results showed less modeling efficiency compared to runoff simulations, which is probably due to the lack of measurement data. It is obvious that the parameter uncertainty in the sediment simulation is much grater than that in the runoff simulation. To decrease the uncertainty of SWAT simulations, it is recommended to estimate feasible ranges of model parameters, and obtain sufficient and reliable measurement data for the study site.

Simulation of Rollover Crashes and Passenger Injury Assessment for a Wheeled Armored Vehicle (차륜형 전투차량 전복 시 승무원 안전성 확보를 위한 시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Lee, Gyung-Soo;Jung, Ui-Jin;Park, Gyung-Jin
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.385-391
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    • 2014
  • A wheeled armored vehicle is a military vehicle that has been developed to enhance combat capabilities and mobility for the army. The wheeled armored vehicle has a high center of gravity, and it operates on unpaved and sloped roads. Therefore, this vehicle has a high risk of rollover crashes. To design the interior of the military vehicle, the crew's safety during rollover crashes is an important factor. However, actual vehicle tests for design are extremely expensive. In this paper, nonlinear dynamic analysis is performed to simulate the rollover crashes and the passenger injury is assessed for a wheeled armored vehicle. The scope of this research is the rollover condition, FE modeling of the wheeled armored vehicle and the dummy, arrangement of dummies, assessment of passenger injuries, and simulation model for rollover crashes.

Numerical Evaluation of Excavation Damage Zone Around Tunnels by Using Voronoi Joint Models (Voronoi 절리모델에 의한 터널 주변 굴착손상권(EDZ)의 해석 사례)

  • Park, Eui-Seob;Martin, C. Derek;Synn, Joong-Ho
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.328-337
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    • 2008
  • Quantifying the extent and characteristics of the excavation damage zone(EDZ) is important for the nuclear waste industry which relies on the sealing of underground openings to minimize the risk for radionuclide transport. At AECL's Underground Research Laboratory(URL) the Tunnel Sealing Experiment(TSX) was conducted and the tunnel geometry and orientation relative to the stress field had been selected to minimize the potential for the development of an EDZ. The extent and characteristics of the EDZ was measured using velocity profiling and permeability measurements in radial boreholes. The results from this EDZ characterization are used in this paper to evaluate a modeling fir estimating the extent of the EDZ. The methodology used a damage model formulated in the Universal Distinct Element Code and calibrated to laboratory properties. This model was then used to predict the extent of crack initiation and growth around the TSX tunnel and the results compared to the measured damage. The development of the damage zone in the numerical model was found to be in good agreement with the field measurements.

The Allocation Methods for Economical Efficiency Using an Optimized Model (최적화 모델을 이용한 경제적인 총량관리 할당기법 연구)

  • Choi, In Uk;Shin, Dong Seok;Kim, Hong Tae;Park, Jae Hong;Ahn, Ki Hong;Kim, Yong Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2015
  • In Korea, Total Maximum Daily Loads(TMDLs) has been enforced to restore and manage water quality in the watersheds. However, some assesment of implementation plan of TMDLs showed that the achievement of the target water quality is not related to the proper allocation loads because difference of flow duration interval. In the United States, the discharge loads are determined by water quality modeling considering standard flow conditions according to purpose. Therefore, this study tried to develop the allocation method considering economical efficiency using water quality model. For this purpose, several allocation methods being used in the management of TMDLs is investigated and develope an allocation criteria considering regional equality and uniformity. Since WARMF(Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework) model can simulate the time varying behavior of a system and the various water quality variables, it was selected for a decision support system in this study. This model showed fairly good performance by adequately simulating observed discharge and water quality in Miho watershed. Furthermore, the scenario simulation results showed that the effect of annual average water quality improvement to remove 1kg BOD is more than 25 times, even if point pollutants treatment facility is six times more expensive to operate than non-point pollutants treatment facility.

A Study on the Air Travel Demand Forecasting using ARIMA-Intervention Model (Event Intervention이 일본, 중국 항공수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seon Tae;Kim, Min Su;Park, Sang Beom;Lee, Joon Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.77-89
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to anticipate the air travel demands over the period of 164 months, from January 1997 to August 2010 using ARIMA-Intervention modeling on the selected sample data. The sample data is composed of the number of the passengers who in the domestic route for Jeju route. In the analysis work of this study, the past events which are assumed to have affected the demands for the air travel routes to Jeju in different periods were used as the intervention variables. The impacts of such variables were reflected in the presupposed demand. The intervention variables used in this study are, respectively, the World Cup event in 2002 (from May to June), 2003 SARS outbreak (from April to May), Tsunami in January 2005, and the influenza outbreak from October to December 2009. The result of the above mentioned analysis revealed that the negative intervention events, like a global outbreak of an epidemic did have negative impact on the air travel demands in a risk aversion by the users of the aviation services. However, in case of the negative intervention events in limited area, where there are possible substituting destinations for the tourists, the impact was positive in terms of the air travel demands for substituting destinations due to the rational expectation of the users as they searched for other options. Also in this study, it was discovered that there is not a binding correlation between a nation wide mega-event, such as the World Cup games in 2002, and the increased air travel demands over a short-term period.

Development of a Remote Dust Collector Bag Control System using Power Line Communication (전력선 통신을 이용한 원격 집진기 bag 제어 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-Sook
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2010
  • Advances in communications and control technology, the strengthening of the Internet, and the growing recognition of the urgency to reduce the risk and production cost are motivating the development of improvements in the traditional manufacturing industry. In this paper, we developed a remote dust collector bag control system which is a combination of advanced IT and traditional dust collector based on the event. At first, we made the A/D(Analog/Digital) converter using a micro processor because the differential pressure transmission, which is a sensor of the dust collector, produces analog volt data. A/D converter can provide RS-232 communication to connect with Power Line Communication(PLC) modem. And, n-bytes message format was defined for the efficient dust collector bag information transmission from a dust collector to a user. Also, we designed the data types to model the dust collector and the dust collector bag, and they were logically modeled using XML and object-oriented modeling method. In addition to that, we implemented the system for showing the dust collector bag exchange time exactly to users at real-time using various visual user interfaces.