• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Measure

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Modeling Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Cuong Thanh;NGUYEN, Manh Huu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001-1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study's results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.

Assessment of Possibility on the Human Risk for the Electromagnetic Field of Unbalanced Two Coupled Three-phase Transmission Line Using Fuzzy Theory (퍼지이론을 이용한 3상 2회선 불평형 송전선로에서의 전자계에 대한 인체 위험 가능성평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Chul;Kim, Doo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.2 s.74
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents assessment of possibility on the human risk for the electromagnetic field of unbalanced two coupled three-phase transmission line using fuzzy theory. Three phase load flow program was developed which employed a Newton-Raphson method as a tool to analyze system unbalanced. This research presents a method of handling two coupled three phase transmission system unbalance analysis and unbalanced power demand as a function of voltages. As the results of case study, in case of 345[kV] T/L, the electric field intensity was 10.9540[kV/m], magnetic field intensity was 0.2567[G] in severest case. The results showed that the membership of a proposition fuzzy '10.9540 [kV/m] is hazardous' is 0.6349. As the analytic results using the fuzzy qualifier term, the membership in case of very false is 0.1379 and fairly false is 0.6124, respectively. In assessment of fuzzy measure possibility for the electromagnetic field, this paper used probability of fuzzy arid measure of fuzziness technique.

Correlation Between Shoulder Gradient, Range of Motion of the Neck, and Subjective Pain level of the Potential Risk Group of Smart-phone Addiction (스마트폰 중독 잠재위험군의 어깨 기울기, 목 관절가동범위 및 주관적 통증 정도의 상관관계)

  • Jeong, Yeonwoo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2017
  • Purpose : The purpose of this study was to investigate the correlation between shoulder gradient, range of motion of the neck, and subjective pain level of the potential risk group of smart-phone addiction. Methods : The subjects of this study were 90 women's who had potential risk of smart-phone addiction. VAS was used to measure subjectively pain intensity. Global Postural System was used to measure forward head posture. CROM was used to measure flexion, extension, lateral flexion of cervical range of motion. Results : The results of this study showed that was significant positive correlation between the both shoulder gradient, and cervical range of motion(p<.05). Statistically significant negative correlation between the VAS and left lateral flexion(p<.05). Conclusions : The difference between the gradient of both shoulders increased with the use of smart-phone addiction, and the cervical left lateral flexion decreased as the pain increased. This suggests that recognition on decrease of using smart phone and postural correction is necessary.

Construction of Event Tree & Fault Tree for Train Fire Risk Assessment (철도화재사고 위험도평가를 위한 Event Tree 및 Fault Tree 구성)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Wang, Jong-Bae;Lee, Bong-Seob;Park, Chan-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.530-535
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    • 2008
  • After train fire accident in Daegue, many research on train fire safety improvement have been carrying out. Since many alternative fire safety measures can be applied in our railway system, the effect of the each safety measure must be quantified prior to the safety investment. In order to estimate the effects of each safety measure quantitatively, fault trees and event trees are constructed in this study. Results can be applied for cost-benefit analysis or sensitivity analysis for safety measures in risk assessment process.

Trust Measuring of e-Marketplace Buyers and Sellers - Design of Fuzzy-based Methodology - (e-마켓플레이스 판매자와 구매자 신뢰도 측정 - 퍼지기반 방법론 설계 -)

  • Yang, Kun-Woo;Cho, Hyuk-Soo
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.3-21
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    • 2007
  • The explosive growth of e-marketplace transactions requires an appropriate trust measuring framework to protect involving transacting entities such as buyers and sellers. As a strategic competitive edge, e-marketplace service providers have been adopting various system features that make sure no one transacting entity takes a major risk in online transactions involved. In this paper, an improved trust measuring method using fuzzy theory for an e-marketplace is proposed. The proposed methodology incorporates fuzzy set and calculation concepts to help build trust matrices and models, which are used to measure the level of risk involved in a specific e-marketplace transaction concerned. The proposed framework can be utilized to optimize the transaction costs by recommending a differentiated transaction process according to the risk level involved in each online transaction.

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A NOTE FOR RESTRICTED INFORMATION MARKETS

  • Jianqi, Yang;Qingxian, Xiao;Haifeng, Yan
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.27 no.5_6
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    • pp.1073-1086
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    • 2009
  • This paper considers the problems of martingale measures and risk-minimizing hedging strategies in the market with restricted information. By constructing a general restricted information market model, the explicit relation of arbitrage and the minimal martingale measure between two different information markets are discussed. Also a link among all equivalent martingale measures under restricted information market is given. As an example of restricted information markets, this paper constitutes a jump-diffusion process model and presents a risk minimizing problem under different information. Through $It\hat{o}$ formula and projection results in Schweizer[13], the explicit optimal strategy for different market information are given.

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Evaluation of Severity Measures of Accidents Associated with Industrial Machines and Devices (산업용 기계 및 기구 관련 재해강도 지표의 평가)

  • Choi, Gi Heung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2019
  • This study focuses on the evaluation of severity measures used for accidents associated with industrial machines and devices. In particular, duration of medical treatment, duration of work loss, number of deaths in an individual accident associated with industrial machines and devices are evaluated in various ways to assess the severity of the accident. The number of accidents with work loss of longer than 1 year as the severity measure and the number of accidents as the frequency measure appeared to be the most discriminating information and allow risk assessment based on these frequency and severity measures for grouping of industrial machines and devices. Results of such risk assessment further confirmed the re-classification of industrial machines and devices that are currently subject to safety certification (SC) and self-declaration of conformity (SDC) or selection of those machines and devices that are newly subject to SC and SDC.

A Research on Process of Estimation about Frequency and Loss of Risk by distribution of Probability (확률분포에 의한 리스크 빈도수와 손실규모 추정 프로세스 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Jai;Lee, Seong-Il
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2008
  • Risk that breed large size disaster is happening variously for cause at social. natural a management. Incidence and damage scale are trend that increase rapidly than past. In these circumstance, to keep operational continuity of organization, area, society, risk management action that establish systematic counter measure estimating and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue and the best countermeasure. Risk management action does by main purpose establish optimum disaster reduction countermeasure. To deduce various countermeasure, process that estimate and analyze occurrence possibility and expectation damage of risk is essential indispensable issue. Therefore, this paper studies process design that can presume risk occurrence frequency and damage scale through distribution of probability.

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Weight Evaluation of Risk Factors for Early Construction Stage (초기 건설공사 리스크인자의 중요도 산정)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2004
  • This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities of early construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The Common risks are identified and classified by considering various aspects of the early construction stage such as financial, political, constructional aspects, etc. The risks for Earth works and Foundation works are identified in detail by surveying technical specifications, relevant claim cases and interviewing with experts. These risks are classified based on the Wok Breakdown Structure(WBS) of the early construction stage. The WBS presented in this study classifies the works of early construction stage into four categories; excavation, sheeting works, foundation works, footing works. This study suggests a risk analysis method using fuzzy theory for construction projects. Construction risks are generally evaluated as vague linguistic value by subjective decision making. Fuzzy theory is a proper method to quantify vague conditions of construction activities. Therefore, this study utilizes fuzzy theory to analyse construction risks. The weight of risks is estimated by reflecting the interrelationship among risk factors from absolute weights obtained by fuzzy measure into the relative weights by Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). The interrelationship is estimated by Sugeno-fuzzy measure.

A study on Risk-based Bridge Performance Evaluation Method for Asset Management (위험도 개념을 적용한 교량 자산관리의 성능평가방법 연구)

  • Choi, Hyun-Ho;Sun, Jong-Wan;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2013
  • Generally, asset management procedure consists of exact information collection, decision of service level, analysis of aspiration level, analysis of financial condition and available budget, preparation of asset management plan, and value of modified asset. In this study, for the risk-based asset management, condition assessment and performance measuring, assessment of failure modes and risks, evaluation/selection of treatment options, and implementation of optimum solution are additionally included. For this, bridge inventory and performance measure considering risks are classified and method of quantitative/qualitative performance measure is suggested. Also, evaluation method of risk analysis for bridge asset management is suggested and basic research is carried out for applicable method of risk-based asset management. Using suggested risk procedure and method of risk-based bridge service level evaluation, it is possible to perform resonable asset management. Moreover, it is concluded that the proposed applicable method of risk-based asset management will provide a solution to contribute the development of systematical asset management for optimal decision making and prototype asset management system.