• 한국재난관리표준학회지
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.63-67
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• 2008

본 연구는 위험성 분석 기법을 통해 화학 산업 시설에서 발생 가능한 화학 테러에 대한 원인 을 규명하고, 기존의 테러 대응 방법에 대한 분석 및 평가를 함으로써 효과적 대응 개선 방안을 마련하기 위 한 프로그램 개발이다 테러 위험성 평가 프로그램은 자산 분석(Asset Characterization), 위협 평가(Threat Assessment), 취약성 분석(Vulnerability Analysis), 위험성 평가(Risk Assessment), 대응책 제시(New Countermeasure)의 총 5단계의 순차적 알고리즘으로 구성되어 있다. 개발된 프로그램을 항만에 위치한 석유 저장 및 정제 공정에 적용하여 테러 위험성과 그 원인을 분석함으로써 위험성 평가 프로그램의 효용성과 신뢰성을 검증하였다. 화학 산업 시설에서의 보안 및 테러리즘에 대한 문제성 제기를 통해 그 해결책을 제시하고 테러의 취약점과 원인을 규명함으로써 테러나 재해(extreme event) 발생 시 효과적인 대응책 마련이나 대응 전략 수립에 기여하고자 개발된 프로그램이다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.93-104
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• 2008

A successful fire risk assessment is depends on identification of risk, the analytical process of potential risk, on estimation of likelihood and the width and depth of consequence. Take the influence on enterprise into consideration, Fire risk assessment could carry out along the evaluation of the risk importance, the risk level and the risk acceptance. A large part of the limitation of choosing the risk assessment techniques impose restrictions on expense and time. If it is unnecessary high level risk assessment or Probabilistic Risk Assessment of buildings, in compliance with the Relative Ranking Method, Fire risk indexing and assessing is possible. As working-level technique, AHP method is useful with practical technique.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.11-16
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• 2018

This research examines the alternative ways of estimating the coefficient of non-diversifiable risk, namely beta coefficient, in Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) introduced by Sharpe (1964) that is an essential element of assessing the value of diverse assets. The non-parametric methods used in this research are the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator). The Jackknife, the resampling technique, is also employed to validate the results. According to finance literature and common practices, these coecients have often been estimated using Ordinary Least Square (LS) regression method and monthly return data set. The empirical results of this research pointed out that the robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) performed much better than Ordinary Least Square (LS) in terms of eciency for large-cap stocks trading actively in the United States markets. Interestingly, the empirical results also showed that daily return data would give more accurate estimation than monthly return data in both Ordinary Least Square (LS) and robust Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and Maximum likelihood type of M-estimator (MM-estimator) regressions.

• Nutrition Research and Practice
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.20-24
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• 2020

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Malnutrition has multiple impacts on surgical success, postoperative complications, duration of hospital stay, and costs, particularly for cancer patients. There are various nutrition risk screening tools available for clinical use. Herein, we aim to determine the most appropriate nutritional risk screening system for esophageal cancer (EC) patients in China. SUBJECTS/METHODS: In total, 138 EC patients were enrolled in this study and evaluated by experienced nurses using three different nutritional screening tools, the Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 tool (NRS2002), the Patient-generated Subjective Globe Assessment (PG-SGA), and the Nutrition Risk Index (NRI).We compared sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and Youden index generated by each of the three screening tools. Finally, cut-off points for all three tools were re-defined to optimize and validate the best nutritional risk screening tool for assessing EC patients. RESULTS: Our data suggested that all three screening tools were 100% sensitive for EC patients, while the specificities were 44.4%, 2.96%, and 59.26% for NRS 2002, PG-SGA, and NRI, respectively. NRI had a higher positive likelihood ratio as well as a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve compared to those of NRS 2002 and PG-SGA; although, all three tools had null negative likelihood ratios. After adjusting the cut-off points, the specificity and accuracy for all tools were significantly improved, however, the NRI remained the most appropriate nutritional risk screening system for EC patients. CONCLUSIONS: The NRI is the most suitable (highest sensitivity and accuracy) nutritional risk screening tool for EC patients. The performance of the NRI can be significantly improved if the cut-off point is modified according to the results obtained using MedCalc software.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.453-461
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• 2013

본 논문에서는 소형 해상 부유체의 위기 평가를 위한 확률기반 위기평가기법(PET)에서 표본 데이터에 최적인 누적분포함수(CDF) 추정에 관한 평가절차와 실험결과를 기술하였다. CDF는 PET에서 부유체의 위기수준을 평가하기 위한 위기허용기준의 참조 값을 제공하기 위한 것으로, 부유체 모델의 롤(Roll), 피치(pitch), 히브(Heave) 등의 운동응답함수에 대한 표본 데이터에서 추정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 여덟가지 정형화된 분포함수와 최대우도추정기법을 적용하여 표본 데이터에 대해서 최대우도를 갖는 CDF들을 평가하였다. 분포함수들의 적합도 검정 실험을 통해서, 베타 분포가 롤과 피치 표본 데이터에 대해서 평균 확률오차 $\bar{\delta}(0{\leq}\bar{\delta}{\leq}1.0)$가 가장 작은 0.024와 0.022로 최적임을 나타냈고, 히브 표본 데이터에 대해서는 감마 분포가 $\bar{\delta}$가 가장 작은 0.027로 최적임을 나타냈다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법은 표본 데이터의 최적분포 추정을 위한 다양한 분야에 적용 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제29권1호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2001

This paper is concerned with suggesting a Bayesian method for variable selection in multinomial logit model. It is based upon an optimal rule suggested by use of Bayes rule which minimizes a risk induced by selecting the multinomial logit model. The rule is to find a subset of variables that maximizes the marginal likelihood of the model. We also propose a Laplace-Metropolis algorithm intended to suggest a simple method forestimating the marginal likelihood of the model. Based upon two examples, artificial data and empirical data examples, the Bayesian method is illustrated and its efficiency is examined.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.49-57
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• 2013

A sea dike construction has been increased in Korea because of the actively deployed reclamation project in basis of efficient application in land. The degree of completion in sea dike construction is affected by final closing construction, which has a lot of uncertainty that often results in higher accidents rate. Therefore, this research identified risk factors of final closing construction and classified them. This research examines the likelihood and its impact for each risk factor and calculates the risk degree as to the risk matrix. Based on this, the impact and the environmental conditions that affect to risk factors are investigated and further responsive methods are established for each risk factor. Ultimately, this research attempts to provide the risk retrenchment method for inspectors by proposing risk estimation model, responsive action list, and risk management process.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.27-37
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• 2016

This study was to understand associated factors with frequent exposure to Internet pornography among Korean adolescents. We used data (N = 45,783) from the 2012 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey to examine demographics, family environmental variables, Internet use time, mental health indicators, sexual behavior, and delinquency among Korean adolescents identified as frequent users of Internet pornography. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that frequent users of Internet pornography were more likely to be older males with differences in living arrangements and perceived economic status of the family. They were heavy Internet users with mental health issues, such as a higher likelihood of sadness, suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, high stress, and a lower likelihood of feeling happiness. Their higher probability of exploratory (OR =1.79-4.60), and high-risk sexual behavior (OR = 2.20-7.46), and other delinquencies (OR = 1.74-7.68) requires more attention from public health professionals.

• 가족자원경영과 정책
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.99-115
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• 2019

This study examined the insolvency likelihood of young debtors from the 2018 Household Financial and Welfare Survey. This study used the Household Default Risk Index (HDRI), which considers the ratio of total debt to total assets (DTA), and a total debt service ratio (DSR) to examine the insolvency level of debtors. The descriptive analyses showed no difference in frequency of households with a high probability of insolvency between those less than 35 years of age and those over 35 years of age. However, the median HDRI value for those less than 35 years of age was higher than those over 35 years of age. The multivariate analyses indicated that educational expenses for young Korean debtors was a factor that increased their probability of insolvency, while income was the only variable that decreased their insolvency likelihood.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.627-632
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• 2021

중국의 다양한 온라인 쇼핑몰에서 명품을 판매하고 있다. 기업은 소비자의 지각된 위험을 낮추고자 유명한 연예인을 광고 모델로 활용하거나 기업의 사회공헌활동 (이하 CSR)을 공개한다. 본 연구는 지각된 위험이 명품판매 쇼핑몰 사용의도에 미치는 영향을 CSR 정보와 유명인 모델이 어떻게 조절하는지 살펴보고자 하였다. 정교화가능성모델에 따르면, 지각된 위험이 크면 중심경로를 이용하게 되어 주제와 직접적인 정보를 처리하게 되므로 주변 단서인 유명 모델과 CSR활동 정보의 영향은 의미가 없게 된다. 가설검증을 위해 2(지각된 위험 고·저)×2(사회공헌활동정보 유·무)×2(유명인 광고모델 유·무) 집단 간 실험설계를 실시하였다. 연구 결과, 지각된 위험이 낮을 때에는 유명인 광고모델과 CSR 정보를 각각 제시하였을 때의 쇼핑몰 사용의도(광고모델 있음: 3.407, CSR 있음: 3.29)가 제시하지 않았을 때(광고모델 없음: 2.88, CSR 없음: 2.779)보다 높았다. 그러나 지각된 위험이 높을 때에는 유명인 광고모델 및 사회공헌활동 정보 제시는 유의미한 효과가 나타났지 않았다. 따라서 유명인 모델과 CSR 정보 등 주변 단서는 소비자가 주변경로를 활용할 수 있는 저관여 상황, 저위험 상황에서 효과가 있음을 보여주는 연구로서 의의가 있다고 하겠다.