• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Estimation

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Effect of Near- and Far-Fault Earthquakes for Seismic Fragility Curves of PSC Box Girder Bridges (PSC 상자형교의 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 근거리 및 원거리 지진의 영향)

  • Jin, He-Shou;Song, Jong-Keol
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2010
  • Seismic fragility curves of structures represent the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage state for a given various levels of ground motion intensity, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA). This means that seismic fragility curves are essential to the evaluation of structural seismic performance and assessments of risk. Most of existing studies have not considered the near- and far-fault earthquake effect on the seismic fragility curves. In order to evaluate the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes, seismic fragility curves for PSC box girder bridges subjected to near- and far-fault earthquakes are calculated and compared. The seismic fragility curves are strongly dependent on the earthquake characteristics such as fault distance. This paper suggests that the effect of near- and far-fault earthquakes on seismic fragility curves of PSC box girder bridge structure should be considered.

Seismic risk estimation of the Kirikkale province through street survey based rapid assessment method (SSRA)

  • Sonmezer, Yetis Bulent;Bas, Selcuk;Akbas, Sami Oguzhan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.615-626
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    • 2018
  • The seismic vulnerability of Turkey is relatively high due to its active fault systems with potential to create destructive earthquakes. Thus, reducing the loss of life and property, the number of the earthquake-prone buildings and their retrofit requirements are considerably significant key issues under the scenario earthquakes. The street survey based rapid assessment (SSRA) method can be considered as a powerful tool to determine the seismic vulnerability of building stock of an earthquake-prone city/state. In this study, the seismic vulnerability of the building stock of the Kirikkale province in Turkey is aimed to be estimated adopting the street survey based rapid assessment method (SSRA). For this purpose, central 2074 existing reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings were structurally surveyed with rapid visual site screening and disadvantages such as, the existence of short-column, soft-story, heavy overhangs, pounding effect and local soil conditions were determined for obtaining the structural performance score of each. The results obtained from the study demonstrate that 11-25% of the surveyed buildings in the study region needs to be investigated through more advanced assessment methods. Besides, higher correlation between increasing story number and unsafe/safe building ratio is obtained for the buildings with soft-story parameter than that for those with heavy overhangs and short-column parameters. The conformity of the results of the current study with the previous documented cases of rapid assessment efforts in the recent earthquakes in Turkey shows that the SSRA method for the Kirikkale province performed well, and thus this methodology can be reliably used for similar settlement areas.

The Relationship between Smartphone Use and Oral Health in Adolescents

  • Ahn, Eunsuk;Han, Ji-Hyoung
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2020
  • Background: Smartphones are a modern necessity. While they are convenient to use, smartphones also have side effects such as addiction. This study assessed the relationship between smartphone use, a part of everyday life in modern society, and oral health. Methods: An analysis was conducted using 2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey data. The propensity score estimation algorithm used logistic regression and 1:1 matching algorithm using nearest-neighbor matching. After matching, a total of 15,032 participants were classified into two groups containing 7,516 teenagers each who did and did not use smartphones, respectively. Results: Comparison of oral health behaviors according to smartphone use revealed a statistically significant difference in the frequency of tooth brushing per day, use of oral hygiene products, intake of foods harmful to oral health, and experience of oral health education (p<0.05). The factors affecting oral pain experience of adolescents were examined. Compared to male participants, female participants had an odds ratio of 1.627 for oral pain (p<0.05). According to the household income level, compared to the group with higher income, the group with lower income showed higher oral pain experience (p<0.05). Oral pain experience was 1.601 times more frequent among teenagers using smartphones (p<0.05). Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that use of smartphones by adolescents affected their oral health. These findings indicate the need for improved oral health management through the use of effective school oral health programs and individual counseling by oral health professionals, promotion of information dissemination through public media, and development of prevention strategies.

An estimation of implied volatility for KOSPI200 option (KOSPI200 옵션의 내재변동성 추정)

  • Choi, Jieun;Lee, Jang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2014
  • Using the assumption that the price of a stock follows a geometric Brownian motion with constant volatility, Black and Scholes (BS) derived a formula that gives the price of a European call option on the stock as a function of the stock price, the strike price, the time to maturity, the risk-free interest rate, the dividend rate paid by the stock, and the volatility of the stock's return. However, implied volatilities of BS method tend to depend on the stock prices and the time to maturity in practice. To address this shortcoming, we estimate the implied volatility function as a function of the strike priceand the time to maturity for data consisting of the daily prices for KOSPI200 call options from January 2007 to May 2009 using support vector regression (SVR), the multiple additive regression trees (MART) algorithm, and ordinary least squaress (OLS) regression. In conclusion, use of MART or SVR in the BS pricing model reduced both RMSE and MAE, compared to the OLS-based BS pricing model.

Service Life Prediction and Cost Estimation of Repaired Concrete Structures Under Marine Environment (염해 환경 하 보수된 콘크리트 구조물의 사용수명 예측 및 보수 비용 평가)

  • Shim, Hyun Bo;Ann, Ki Yong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.226-234
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    • 2011
  • The service life of concrete structures exposed to a marine environment can be extended by controlling the amount of chloride in cover concrete. Patching is one of the appropriate maintenance techniques for chloride contamination. Chloride-contaminated cover concrete is removed and replaced with sound one. It can provide less risk of corrosion of steel, so that the structure can be maintained for required service life. In this study, a quantitative assessment of the service life subjected to the chloride attack is proposed to determine the effective repair options such as repair depth, repair material and timing of repair. The Crank-Nicolson based finite difference formulation from Fick's second law is proposed to predict the profiles of chloride ion in a repaired concrete structure, considering ingress of chloride from outer and redistribution of residual chloride from the substrate concrete. Therefore, the repair application times and maintenance cost for the target service life can be estimated. Finally, the numerical examples are presented to ensure its applicability.

Discharge Equation Related to a Levee-Break for a Flood Hazard Map (홍수위험지도 작성을 위한 하천 제방 붕괴 유량공식 제안)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha;Kim, Sung-Wook;Choi, Bong-Hyuck
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.623-627
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    • 2015
  • To compile a flood hazard map it is essential to identify the potential risk areas. A scenario-based numerical modeling approach is commonly used to build a flood hazard map in the case of a levee-break. The model parameters that capture peak discharge, including breach formation and progress, are important in the modeling method. In this study an earth-levee-break model is constructed under the assumption that the failure mechanism and hydraulic processes are identical for all levee-break river activities. Estimation of the hydrograph at the outlet as a function of time is highlighted. The constructed hydrograph can then serve as an upper boundary condition in running the flood routing model downstream, although flood routing is not considered in this study.

Estimated Iron Intakes from Simulated Fortification to Selected Grain Products in the Korea Food Supply (곡류제품의 철 강화 시나리오 작성 및 평가)

  • Chung Hae-Rang;Hong Min-Ji;Escamilla Rafael Perez;Oh Se-Young
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.808-813
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    • 2006
  • Until now, South Korea does not have either fortification or enrichment program as intervention tools although the addition of micronutrients to foods is for the most part not regulated. The aim of this study was to determine which scenario would most effectively reduce the proportion of the population with low iron intake while not putting other population groups at risk of excessive intakes. In order to investigate potential dietary consequences of iron fortification we analyzed 2 day dietary record data (n=3,955) from the 2001 National Nutrition Surveys. The Proportion of the population consuming dietary iron less than the estimated average requirement (EAR) ranged from $12.4{\sim}87.5%$ depending upon gender and age group. Iron fortification at the level of 100% of Recommended Intake (RI) per 100g to breads and instant o. dried noodles was estimated to result in a 15% decrease of proportion of those with iron less than EAR, while putting 1.4 % of the population greater than the Upper Limit (UL). Iron fortification appeared to be the most effective for the $15{\sim}19$ year old age group, showing 39% reduction of iron intake insufficiency. The results suggest that carefully designed fortification or enrichment to staple foods may contribute to increase dietary iron intakes of Koreans, especially for the young population with a high prevalence of iron inadequacy. As the estimation in this study was based solely upon dietary intake data, iron intake from supplements should be considered in further studies.

Investigation on the Main Exposure Sources of Nanomaterials for Nanohazards Assessment (나노위해성 관리를 위한 나노물질 주요 배출원 파악)

  • Kim, Young-Hun;Park, Jun-Su;Kim, He-Ro;Lee, Jeong-Jin;Bae, Eun-Joo;Lee, Su-Seung;Kwak, Byoung-Kyu;Choi, Kyung-Hee;Park, Kwang-Sik;Yi, Jong-Heop
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2008
  • Nanotechnology is emerging as one of the key technologies of the 21 st century and is expected to enable one to broaden the applicability across a wide range of sectors that can benefit public and improve industrial competitiveness. Already, consumer products containing nanomaterials are available in markets including coatings, computers, clothing, cosmetics, sports equipment and medical devices. Recently, Institute of Occupational Medicine in UK reported an occupational hygiene review for nanoparticles in the viewpoint of nanotoxicity. They reported that the exposure control is very important issues in workplace for exposure assessment, but no proper methods are available to measure the extent of exposures to nanoparticles in the workplace. Therefore, for the estimation of exposure of nanomaterials, we have to approach the material-balance methodology, which similarly carried out in TRI (toxic release inventory) for hazardous chemicals. In order to use this methodology, the exposure source of nanomaterials should be determined firstly. Therefore, herein we investigated the main sources and processes for the exposure to nanomaterals by conducting the survey. The results could be used to define and assess nanohazard sources.

Minimum Temperature Mapping in Complex Terrain Considering Cold Air Drainage (냉기침강효과를 고려한 복잡지형의 최저기온 분포 추정)

  • 정유란;서형호;황규홍;황범석;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2002
  • Site-specific minimum temperature forecasts are critical in a short-term decision making procedure for preventive measures as well as a long-term strategy such as site selection in fruits industry. Nocturnal cold air pools frequently termed in mountainous areas under anticyclonic systems are very dangerous to the flowering buds in spring over Korea, but the spatial resolution to detect them exceeds the current weather forecast scale. To supplement the insufficient spatial resolution of official forecasts, we developed a GIS - assisted frost risk assesment scheme for using in mountainous areas. Daily minimum temperature data were obtained from 6 sites located in a 2.1 by 2.1 km area with complex topography near the southern edge of Sobaek mountains during radiative cooling nights in spring 2001. A digital elevation model with a 10 m spatial resolution was prepared for the entire study area and the cold air inflow was simulated for each grid cell by counting the number of surrounding cells coming into the processing cell. Primitive temperature surfaces were prepared for the corresponding dates by interpolating the Korea Meteorological Administration's automated observational data with the lapse rate correction. The cell temperature values corresponding to the 6 observation sites were extracted from the primitive temperature surface, and subtracted from the observed values to obtain the estimation error. The errors were regressed to the flow accumulation at the corresponding cells, delineating a statistically significant relationship. When we applied this relationship to the primitive temperature surfaces of frost nights during April 2002, there was a good agreement with the observations, showing a feasibility of site-specific frost warning system development in mountainous areas.

Study on Estimation and Application of the Fwl-D-F curves for Urban Basins (도시유역의 Fwl-D-F 곡선 산정 및 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Hyun-Il;Kim, Eung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.7
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    • pp.2687-2692
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    • 2010
  • There have been performed many researched for flood magnitude analysis, for example, the Flood-Duration-Frequency relations in the west. Because flood water stage data are more available rather than flood amount data at flood gauge stations of Korea, this study developed Flood water level-Duration-Frequency (Fwl-D-F) curves using rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency(I-D-F) curves for the quantitative flood risk assessment in urban watersheds. Fwl-D-F curve is made from water level data for 18 years at Joongrayng bridge station of Joongrayng River basin in Han River drainage area. Fwl-D-F curve can estimate the occurrence frequency for a certain flood elevation, which can be used for urban flood forecasting. It is expected that the flood elevation can be estimated from the forecasted rainfall data using both Fwl-D-F and I-D-F curves.