• 제목/요약/키워드: Risk Estimation

검색결과 959건 처리시간 0.027초

PSC 상자형교의 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 근거리 및 원거리 지진의 영향 (Effect of Near- and Far-Fault Earthquakes for Seismic Fragility Curves of PSC Box Girder Bridges)

  • 김학수;송종걸
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2010
  • 구조물의 지진취약도 곡선은 지진의 다양한 강도를 최대지반가속도 등의 함수로 하여 몇 가지로 구분된 손상상태를 초과할 확률을 나타내는 것으로 구조물의 내진성능과 지진위험도를 평가하는데 유용하게 활용된다. 기존의 많은 연구자들이 수행한 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 연구에서 근거리 및 원거리 지진하중의 특성에 대하여 고려하지 못하였다. 본 연구에서는 근거리 및 원거리 지진으로 구분되는 지진가속도 기록을 사용하여 국내 교량의 대표적인 형식의 하나인 PSC상자형교에 대한 지진취약도 곡선을 평가하였으며 근거리와 원거리로 구분된 지진 특성이 지진취약도 곡선에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 예제교량의 지진취약도 곡선에 대한 근거리 및 원거리 지진의 영향이 현저한 차이를 나타내므로 지진취약도 해석시 근거리와 원거리로 구분되는 지진의 특성을 반영하여야 할 것이다.

Seismic risk estimation of the Kirikkale province through street survey based rapid assessment method (SSRA)

  • Sonmezer, Yetis Bulent;Bas, Selcuk;Akbas, Sami Oguzhan
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제14권6호
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    • pp.615-626
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    • 2018
  • The seismic vulnerability of Turkey is relatively high due to its active fault systems with potential to create destructive earthquakes. Thus, reducing the loss of life and property, the number of the earthquake-prone buildings and their retrofit requirements are considerably significant key issues under the scenario earthquakes. The street survey based rapid assessment (SSRA) method can be considered as a powerful tool to determine the seismic vulnerability of building stock of an earthquake-prone city/state. In this study, the seismic vulnerability of the building stock of the Kirikkale province in Turkey is aimed to be estimated adopting the street survey based rapid assessment method (SSRA). For this purpose, central 2074 existing reinforced concrete (R/C) buildings were structurally surveyed with rapid visual site screening and disadvantages such as, the existence of short-column, soft-story, heavy overhangs, pounding effect and local soil conditions were determined for obtaining the structural performance score of each. The results obtained from the study demonstrate that 11-25% of the surveyed buildings in the study region needs to be investigated through more advanced assessment methods. Besides, higher correlation between increasing story number and unsafe/safe building ratio is obtained for the buildings with soft-story parameter than that for those with heavy overhangs and short-column parameters. The conformity of the results of the current study with the previous documented cases of rapid assessment efforts in the recent earthquakes in Turkey shows that the SSRA method for the Kirikkale province performed well, and thus this methodology can be reliably used for similar settlement areas.

The Relationship between Smartphone Use and Oral Health in Adolescents

  • Ahn, Eunsuk;Han, Ji-Hyoung
    • 치위생과학회지
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.44-50
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    • 2020
  • Background: Smartphones are a modern necessity. While they are convenient to use, smartphones also have side effects such as addiction. This study assessed the relationship between smartphone use, a part of everyday life in modern society, and oral health. Methods: An analysis was conducted using 2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey data. The propensity score estimation algorithm used logistic regression and 1:1 matching algorithm using nearest-neighbor matching. After matching, a total of 15,032 participants were classified into two groups containing 7,516 teenagers each who did and did not use smartphones, respectively. Results: Comparison of oral health behaviors according to smartphone use revealed a statistically significant difference in the frequency of tooth brushing per day, use of oral hygiene products, intake of foods harmful to oral health, and experience of oral health education (p<0.05). The factors affecting oral pain experience of adolescents were examined. Compared to male participants, female participants had an odds ratio of 1.627 for oral pain (p<0.05). According to the household income level, compared to the group with higher income, the group with lower income showed higher oral pain experience (p<0.05). Oral pain experience was 1.601 times more frequent among teenagers using smartphones (p<0.05). Conclusion: The results of this study indicated that use of smartphones by adolescents affected their oral health. These findings indicate the need for improved oral health management through the use of effective school oral health programs and individual counseling by oral health professionals, promotion of information dissemination through public media, and development of prevention strategies.

KOSPI200 옵션의 내재변동성 추정 (An estimation of implied volatility for KOSPI200 option)

  • 최지은;이장택
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제25권3호
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2014
  • 옵션가격의 결정에 있어서 실제 변동성은 사후에 알 수 있는 정보이므로 대용값으로 내재변동성을 가장 많이 사용하는데 본 연구에서는 동일한 기초자산을 가진 옵션의 잔존만기와 행사가격을 이용하여 내재변동성을 추정하고자 한다. KOSPI200 옵션 데이터와 서포트벡터회귀, 나무모형 및 회귀모형을 통해 모형의 설명력을 평균제곱근오차 (RMSE)와 평균절대오차 (MAE)를 사용하여 살펴보았다. 그 결과 서포트벡터회귀와 MART의 성능이 최소제곱회귀보다 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 서포트벡터회귀와 MART의 성능은 거의 비슷하였다.

염해 환경 하 보수된 콘크리트 구조물의 사용수명 예측 및 보수 비용 평가 (Service Life Prediction and Cost Estimation of Repaired Concrete Structures Under Marine Environment)

  • 심현보;안기용
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제15권1호
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    • pp.226-234
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    • 2011
  • 해양환경 하에서 염화물의 침투를 억제하여 부식 위험을 최소화함으로써 콘크리트 구조물의 공용기간을 연장할 수 있다. 효과적으로 구조물을 관리하기 위해 적절하게 유지관리하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 효과적인 유지관리 전략을 세우기 위한 보수된 구조물의 유지관리비용 평가와 연계하여 구조물의 사용수명을 정량적으로 평가하는 방법을 제안하였다. Fick의 제2법칙으로부터 Crank-Nicolson법에 기초한 유한 차분법을 제안하여 보수되지 않은 콘크리트 구조물과 보수된 콘크리트 구조물의 염화물 이온 분포를 예측하였다. 이를 이용하여 보수에 의해 연장 가능한 사용수명과 목표한 공용기간 동안에 필요한 보수 횟수를 평가하였다. 게다가 보수 횟수와 콘크리트 교체 비용을 고려하여 총 유지관리 비용을 산출하였다. 마지막으로 제안된 방법의 적용성 검토를 위해 수치해석 예제를 제시하였다.

홍수위험지도 작성을 위한 하천 제방 붕괴 유량공식 제안 (Discharge Equation Related to a Levee-Break for a Flood Hazard Map)

  • 이길하;김성욱;최봉혁
    • 지질공학
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.623-627
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    • 2015
  • 하천 제방 붕괴로 인한 홍수위험지도를 작성하기 위하여 수치모형을 이용한 잠재적 피해 대상 지역 파악이 선행되어야 한다. 하천제방 붕괴로 인하여 빚어지는 홍수위험지도 작성에서도 흔히 수치모형이 이용되며 붕괴 시 첨두 유량은 결정 인자인 하천의 수량과 제방 붕괴 형성 및 진행에 민감하므로 이런 요소를 포함하는 물리적 모형이 필요하다. 제방 붕괴 메커니즘과 수리학적 현상이 모든 붕괴에 같다고 가정하고 하나의 물리적 제방 붕괴 수치 모형을 구축하였다. 이 연구에서는 하도 추적은 언급하지 않았으며, 단지 제방 붕괴지점에서 수문곡선을 추정하는데 초점을 두어 붕괴 지점의 경계조건을 구축하는데 집중하였다. 여기서 제안된 물리적 모형은 제방 붕괴 형성과정에 필요한 역할과 붕괴를 통한 흐름의 수리학적 설명을 담고 있다.

곡류제품의 철 강화 시나리오 작성 및 평가 (Estimated Iron Intakes from Simulated Fortification to Selected Grain Products in the Korea Food Supply)

  • 정해랑;홍민지;;오세영
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.808-813
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    • 2006
  • Until now, South Korea does not have either fortification or enrichment program as intervention tools although the addition of micronutrients to foods is for the most part not regulated. The aim of this study was to determine which scenario would most effectively reduce the proportion of the population with low iron intake while not putting other population groups at risk of excessive intakes. In order to investigate potential dietary consequences of iron fortification we analyzed 2 day dietary record data (n=3,955) from the 2001 National Nutrition Surveys. The Proportion of the population consuming dietary iron less than the estimated average requirement (EAR) ranged from $12.4{\sim}87.5%$ depending upon gender and age group. Iron fortification at the level of 100% of Recommended Intake (RI) per 100g to breads and instant o. dried noodles was estimated to result in a 15% decrease of proportion of those with iron less than EAR, while putting 1.4 % of the population greater than the Upper Limit (UL). Iron fortification appeared to be the most effective for the $15{\sim}19$ year old age group, showing 39% reduction of iron intake insufficiency. The results suggest that carefully designed fortification or enrichment to staple foods may contribute to increase dietary iron intakes of Koreans, especially for the young population with a high prevalence of iron inadequacy. As the estimation in this study was based solely upon dietary intake data, iron intake from supplements should be considered in further studies.

나노위해성 관리를 위한 나노물질 주요 배출원 파악 (Investigation on the Main Exposure Sources of Nanomaterials for Nanohazards Assessment)

  • 김영훈;박준수;김휘로;이정진;배은주;이수승;곽병규;최경희;박광식;이종협
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2008
  • Nanotechnology is emerging as one of the key technologies of the 21 st century and is expected to enable one to broaden the applicability across a wide range of sectors that can benefit public and improve industrial competitiveness. Already, consumer products containing nanomaterials are available in markets including coatings, computers, clothing, cosmetics, sports equipment and medical devices. Recently, Institute of Occupational Medicine in UK reported an occupational hygiene review for nanoparticles in the viewpoint of nanotoxicity. They reported that the exposure control is very important issues in workplace for exposure assessment, but no proper methods are available to measure the extent of exposures to nanoparticles in the workplace. Therefore, for the estimation of exposure of nanomaterials, we have to approach the material-balance methodology, which similarly carried out in TRI (toxic release inventory) for hazardous chemicals. In order to use this methodology, the exposure source of nanomaterials should be determined firstly. Therefore, herein we investigated the main sources and processes for the exposure to nanomaterals by conducting the survey. The results could be used to define and assess nanohazard sources.

냉기침강효과를 고려한 복잡지형의 최저기온 분포 추정 (Minimum Temperature Mapping in Complex Terrain Considering Cold Air Drainage)

  • 정유란;서형호;황규홍;황범석;윤진일
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제4권3호
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2002
  • Site-specific minimum temperature forecasts are critical in a short-term decision making procedure for preventive measures as well as a long-term strategy such as site selection in fruits industry. Nocturnal cold air pools frequently termed in mountainous areas under anticyclonic systems are very dangerous to the flowering buds in spring over Korea, but the spatial resolution to detect them exceeds the current weather forecast scale. To supplement the insufficient spatial resolution of official forecasts, we developed a GIS - assisted frost risk assesment scheme for using in mountainous areas. Daily minimum temperature data were obtained from 6 sites located in a 2.1 by 2.1 km area with complex topography near the southern edge of Sobaek mountains during radiative cooling nights in spring 2001. A digital elevation model with a 10 m spatial resolution was prepared for the entire study area and the cold air inflow was simulated for each grid cell by counting the number of surrounding cells coming into the processing cell. Primitive temperature surfaces were prepared for the corresponding dates by interpolating the Korea Meteorological Administration's automated observational data with the lapse rate correction. The cell temperature values corresponding to the 6 observation sites were extracted from the primitive temperature surface, and subtracted from the observed values to obtain the estimation error. The errors were regressed to the flow accumulation at the corresponding cells, delineating a statistically significant relationship. When we applied this relationship to the primitive temperature surfaces of frost nights during April 2002, there was a good agreement with the observations, showing a feasibility of site-specific frost warning system development in mountainous areas.

도시유역의 Fwl-D-F 곡선 산정 및 활용에 관한 연구 (Study on Estimation and Application of the Fwl-D-F curves for Urban Basins)

  • 최현일;김응석
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제11권7호
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    • pp.2687-2692
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    • 2010
  • 과거 홍수량 분석을 위해 다양한 연구가 진행되었으며 특히, 홍수량-지속시간-빈도곡선(flood-duration-frequency curves)의 연구가 국외에서 진행되었다. 그러나 국내의 수문자료는 하천의 특정지점에서 홍수량 자료 보다는 수위자료를 쉽게 수집 가능하기 때문에 본 연구에서는 도시유역의 홍수에 따른 홍수위험도를 정량적으로 분석하기 위하여 기존의 강우강도-지속시간-빈도곡선(Indensity-duration-frequency curves)을 응용한 홍수위-지속시간-빈도곡선(flood water level-duration-frequency curves: Fwl-D-F)방법을 제시하였다. 연구의 대상지역은 한강수계 중량천의 중량교 지점으로 18년간의 수위 자료를 이용하여 Fwl-D-F곡선을 산정하였다. 홍수위에 대한 지속기간별 빈도곡선인 Fwl-D-F 곡선은 특정한 홍수위에 따른 값을 빈도개념으로 적용이 가능하므로, 내수침수를 포함한 홍수예보에 많은 도움이 될 수 있으리라 판단된다. 또한, 특정 호우사상에 대한 강우량이 예측되면 작성된 강우강도-지속시간-빈도곡선(I-D-F곡선)과 Fwl-D-F곡선을 연계하여 임의 관측지점의 수위를 예측하는 것이 가능하다고 사료된다.