• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 2016

It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.292-300
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• 1995

This paper present a new dynamic HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) method and its application for Quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing an accident management action. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which are most frequently used methods in PSAs, are discussed. The action associated with the implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concepts of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. The MAAP 3.0B code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic distributions obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the timings. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.457-466
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• 2013

Wind energy is rapidly becoming significant generating technologies in electricity markets. As probabilistic nature of wind energy creates many uncertainties in the short-term scheduling, additional actions for reliable market operation should be taken. This paper presents a novel approach to evaluate ramping capability requirement for changes in imbalance energy between day-ahead market and real-time market due to uncertainty of wind generation as well as system load. Dynamic ramp rate model has been applied for realistic solution in unit commitment problem, which is implemented in day-ahead market. Probabilistic optimal power flow has been used to verify ramping capability determined by the proposed method is reasonable in economic and reliable aspects. This approach was tested on six-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system with a wind farm. The results show that the proposed approach provides ramping capability information to meet both forecasted variability and desired confidence level of anticipated uncertainty.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.123-130
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• 2002

This paper presents a new dynamic human reliability analysis method and its application for quantifying the human error probabilities in implementing accident management actions. The action associated with implementation of the cavity flooding during a station blackout sequence is considered for its application. This method is based on the concept of the quantified correlation between the performance requirement and performance achievement. For comparisons of current HRA methods with the new method, the characteristics of THERP, HCR, and SLIM-MAUD, which m most frequency used method in PSAs, are discussed. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the performance achievement parameter. Meanwhile, the value of the performance requirement parameter is obtained from interviews. Based on these stochastic obtained, human error probabilities are calculated with respect to the various means and variances of the things. It is shown that this method is very flexible in that it can be applied to any kind of the operator actions, including the actions associated with the implementation of accident management strategies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Electromagnetic Engineering Society Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.213-218
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• 2003

Because of the development of digital technology, modern digital instrumentation & control systems are being innovativly developed in industrial plants. Whereas, many analog systems are still being used in nuclear plants, because of the demerits of digital equipment. As known, the demerits of digital equipment are the uncertainty and weaknesses in ambient environments such as smoke & electromagnetic interference In an Integral Reactor, a digital I&C system will be composed of microprocessor, memory and network card. Designers will apply new technique for digital equipment. Thus, it is important for digital I&C systems to operate according to designed functions & performance in the ambient environments during a life cycle. Digital I&C systems should have tolerance in such environments and environment qualification should be concluded To acquire electromagnetic interference qualification of digital equipment, this paper suggests an EMI test requirement. Designers should consider the electromagnetic compatibility and test digital equipment according to each test procedure. This paper involves an EMI test requirement and the results analysis of EUT(Equipment Under Test). Test result analysis will be used as electromagnetic compatibility design guides for Integral Reactor I&C systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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• 2013.02a
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• pp.576-576
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• 2013

Recently, diagnostics of plasma becomes more important due to requirement of precise control of plasma processing based on measurement of plasma characteristics. The Langmuir probe has been used for the diagnostics but it has an inevitable uncertainty and error sources such as incorrect tip length and RF noise. Instead of the Langmuir probe, various diagnostic methods have been developed and researched. The cutoff probe is promising one for plasma density using microwaves and resonance phenomenon at the plasma frequency. The cutoff probe has various advantages as follows; (i) it is simple and robust, (ii) it uses few assumptions, and (iii) it is free from deposition by reactive gas. However, the cutoff probe also has uncertainty and error sources such as gap between tips, tip length, direction of tip plane, and RF noise. In this study, the uncertainty and error sources in manufacturing both probes and in diagnostics process were analyzed via comparative experiment at various discharge conditions. Furthermore, to reveal the user dependence of both probes, three well trained Ph. D students made the Langmuir probe and the cutoff probe, respectively, and it were analyzed. Thought this study, it is established that reliability and validity of the Langmuir probe and the cutoff probe related with not only the intrinsic characteristics of probes but also probe user.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.90-102
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• 2004

According to the Mutual Recognition Arrangement (MRA), the calibration and/or test laboratories should satisfy the management and technical requirements ISO 17025 or equivalent. Chapter 5, Section 5.10.4 of the technical requirement of ISO 17025 suggests the required informations for calibration certificates, one of them is to state the uncertainty of measurement. The uncertainties of measurement in reciprocity calibration of standard laboratory microphone were calculated. The expanded uncertainties for 1 and 1/2 inch microphones were 0.03 dB in the middle frequency range and they increased up to 0.10 dB and 0.11 dB at 20 Hz, 0.07 dB and 0.08 dB at high frequency, respectively.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.323-333
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• 2016

In this study, the uncertainty requirements for orbit, attitude, and burn performance were estimated and analyzed for the execution of the $1^{st}$ lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver of the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO) mission. During the early design phase of the system, associate analysis is an essential design factor as the $1^{st}$ LOI maneuver is the largest burn that utilizes the onboard propulsion system; the success of the lunar capture is directly affected by the performance achieved. For the analysis, the spacecraft is assumed to have already approached the periselene with a hyperbolic arrival trajectory around the moon. In addition, diverse arrival conditions and mission constraints were considered, such as varying periselene approach velocity, altitude, and orbital period of the capture orbit after execution of the $1^{st}$ LOI maneuver. The current analysis assumed an impulsive LOI maneuver, and two-body equations of motion were adapted to simplify the problem for a preliminary analysis. Monte Carlo simulations were performed for the statistical analysis to analyze diverse uncertainties that might arise at the moment when the maneuver is executed. As a result, three major requirements were analyzed and estimated for the early design phase. First, the minimum requirements were estimated for the burn performance to be captured around the moon. Second, the requirements for orbit, attitude, and maneuver burn performances were simultaneously estimated and analyzed to maintain the $1^{st}$ elliptical orbit achieved around the moon within the specified orbital period. Finally, the dispersion requirements on the B-plane aiming at target points to meet the target insertion goal were analyzed and can be utilized as reference target guidelines for a mid-course correction (MCC) maneuver during the transfer. More detailed system requirements for the KPLO mission, particularly for the spacecraft bus itself and for the flight dynamics subsystem at the ground control center, are expected to be prepared and established based on the current results, including a contingency trajectory design plan.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.703-715
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• 2015

One of the challenges to increase milk production in a large pasture-based herd with an automatic milking system (AMS) is to grow forages within a 1- km radius, as increases in walking distance increases milking interval and reduces yield. The main objective of this study was to explore sustainable forage option technologies that can supply high amount of grazeable forages for AMS herds using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model. Three different basic simulation scenarios (with irrigation) were carried out using forage crops (namely maize, soybean and sorghum) for the spring-summer period. Subsequent crops in the three scenarios were forage rape over-sown with ryegrass. Each individual simulation was run using actual climatic records for the period from 1900 to 2010. Simulated highest forage yields in maize, soybean and sorghum- (each followed by forage rape-ryegrass) based rotations were 28.2, 22.9, and 19.3 t dry matter/ha, respectively. The simulations suggested that the irrigation requirement could increase by up to 18%, 16%, and 17% respectively in those rotations in El-Nino years compared to neutral years. On the other hand, irrigation requirement could increase by up to 25%, 23%, and 32% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in El-Nino years compared to La-Nina years. However, irrigation requirement could decrease by up to 8%, 7%, and 13% in maize, soybean and sorghum based rotations in La-Nina years compared to neutral years. The major implication of this study is that APSIM models have potentials in devising preferred forage options to maximise grazeable forage yield which may create the opportunity to grow more forage in small areas around the AMS which in turn will minimise walking distance and milking interval and thus increase milk production. Our analyses also suggest that simulation analysis may provide decision support during climatic uncertainty.

• Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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• 2000.04a
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• pp.239-246
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• 2000

This paper presents a new dynamic approach for assessing feasibility associated with the implementation of accident management strategies by the operators. This approach includes the combined use of both the concept of reliability physics and a dynamic event tree generation scheme. The reliability physics is based on the concept of a comparison between two competing variables, i.e., the requirement and the achievement parameter, while the dynamic event tree generation scheme on the continuous generation of the possible event sequences at every branch point up to the desired solution. This approach is applied to a cavity flooding strategy in a reference plant, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems in the station blackout sequence. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the requirement parameter. It has been demonstrated that this combined methodology may contribute to assessing the success likelihood of the operator actions required during accidents and therefore to developing the accident management procedures.