• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regression

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Development of Formulas for the Estimation of Renal Depth and Application in the Measurement of Glomerular Filtration Rate in Koreans (사구체 여과율 측정을 위한 한국인의 신장 깊이에 관한 방정식 도출과 이용)

  • Yoo, Ie-Ryung;Kim, Sung-Hoon;Chung, Yong-An;Jung, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Hae-Giu;Park, Young-Ha;Lee, Sung-Yong;Sohn, Hyung-Seon;Chung, Soo-Kyo;Kim, Hyun-Mi;Lee, Hyung-Goo
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.418-425
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    • 2000
  • Purpose: There is no established formula for estimating renal depths in Korean. As a result, we undertook this study to develop a new formula, and to apply this formula in the calculation of glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Materials and Methods: We measured the renal depth (RD) on the abdominal CT obtained in 300 adults (M:F: 167:133, mean age 50.9 years) without known renal diseases. The RDs measured by CT were compared with the estimated RDs based on the Tonnesen and Taylor equations. New formulas were derived from the measured RDs in 200 out of 300 patients based on several variables such as sex, age, weight, and height by multiple regression analysis. The RDs estimated from the new formulas were compared with the measured RDs in the remaining 100 patients as a control. In 48 patients who underwent Tc-99m DTPA renal scintigraphy, GFR was measured with three equations (new formula, Tonnesen and Taylor equations), respectively, and compared with each other. Results: The mean values of the RDs measured from CT were 6.9 cm for right kidney of the men (MRK), 6.7 cm for left kidney of the men (MLK), 6.7 cm for right kidney of the women (WRK), and 6.6 cm for left kidney of the women (WLK). The RDs estimated from Tonnesen equation were shorter than the ones measured from CT significantly. The newly derived formulas were 12.813 (weight/height)+0.002 (age)+ 2.264 for MRK, 15.344 (weight/height)+0.011 (age)+0.557 for MLK, 12.936 (weight/height)+ 0.014 (age)+1.462 for WRK and 13.488 (weight/height)+0.019 (age)+0.762 for WLK. The correlation coefficients of the RD measured from CT and estimated from the new formula were 0.529 in MRK, 0.729 in MLK, 0.601 in WRK, and 0.724 in WLK, respectively. The GFRs from the new formula were significantly higher than those from the Tonnesen equation significantly, which was the most similar to normal GFR values. Conclusion: We generated new formulas for estimating RD in Korean from the data by CT. By adopting these formulas, we expect that GFR can be measured by the Gates method accurately in Korean.

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Pareto Ratio and Inequality Level of Knowledge Sharing in Virtual Knowledge Collaboration: Analysis of Behaviors on Wikipedia (지식 공유의 파레토 비율 및 불평등 정도와 가상 지식 협업: 위키피디아 행위 데이터 분석)

  • Park, Hyun-Jung;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2014
  • The Pareto principle, also known as the 80-20 rule, states that roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes for many events including natural phenomena. It has been recognized as a golden rule in business with a wide application of such discovery like 20 percent of customers resulting in 80 percent of total sales. On the other hand, the Long Tail theory, pointing out that "the trivial many" produces more value than "the vital few," has gained popularity in recent times with a tremendous reduction of distribution and inventory costs through the development of ICT(Information and Communication Technology). This study started with a view to illuminating how these two primary business paradigms-Pareto principle and Long Tail theory-relates to the success of virtual knowledge collaboration. The importance of virtual knowledge collaboration is soaring in this era of globalization and virtualization transcending geographical and temporal constraints. Many previous studies on knowledge sharing have focused on the factors to affect knowledge sharing, seeking to boost individual knowledge sharing and resolve the social dilemma caused from the fact that rational individuals are likely to rather consume than contribute knowledge. Knowledge collaboration can be defined as the creation of knowledge by not only sharing knowledge, but also by transforming and integrating such knowledge. In this perspective of knowledge collaboration, the relative distribution of knowledge sharing among participants can count as much as the absolute amounts of individual knowledge sharing. In particular, whether the more contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants in knowledge sharing will enhance the efficiency of overall knowledge collaboration is an issue of interest. This study deals with the effect of this sort of knowledge sharing distribution on the efficiency of knowledge collaboration and is extended to reflect the work characteristics. All analyses were conducted based on actual data instead of self-reported questionnaire surveys. More specifically, we analyzed the collaborative behaviors of editors of 2,978 English Wikipedia featured articles, which are the best quality grade of articles in English Wikipedia. We adopted Pareto ratio, the ratio of the number of knowledge contribution of the upper 20 percent of participants to the total number of knowledge contribution made by the total participants of an article group, to examine the effect of Pareto principle. In addition, Gini coefficient, which represents the inequality of income among a group of people, was applied to reveal the effect of inequality of knowledge contribution. Hypotheses were set up based on the assumption that the higher ratio of knowledge contribution by more highly motivated participants will lead to the higher collaboration efficiency, but if the ratio gets too high, the collaboration efficiency will be exacerbated because overall informational diversity is threatened and knowledge contribution of less motivated participants is intimidated. Cox regression models were formulated for each of the focal variables-Pareto ratio and Gini coefficient-with seven control variables such as the number of editors involved in an article, the average time length between successive edits of an article, the number of sections a featured article has, etc. The dependent variable of the Cox models is the time spent from article initiation to promotion to the featured article level, indicating the efficiency of knowledge collaboration. To examine whether the effects of the focal variables vary depending on the characteristics of a group task, we classified 2,978 featured articles into two categories: Academic and Non-academic. Academic articles refer to at least one paper published at an SCI, SSCI, A&HCI, or SCIE journal. We assumed that academic articles are more complex, entail more information processing and problem solving, and thus require more skill variety and expertise. The analysis results indicate the followings; First, Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing relates in a curvilinear fashion to the collaboration efficiency in an online community, promoting it to an optimal point and undermining it thereafter. Second, the curvilinear effect of Pareto ratio and inequality of knowledge sharing on the collaboration efficiency is more sensitive with a more academic task in an online community.

Impact of Semantic Characteristics on Perceived Helpfulness of Online Reviews (온라인 상품평의 내용적 특성이 소비자의 인지된 유용성에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Yoon-Joo;Kim, Kyoung-jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.29-44
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    • 2017
  • In Internet commerce, consumers are heavily influenced by product reviews written by other users who have already purchased the product. However, as the product reviews accumulate, it takes a lot of time and effort for consumers to individually check the massive number of product reviews. Moreover, product reviews that are written carelessly actually inconvenience consumers. Thus many online vendors provide mechanisms to identify reviews that customers perceive as most helpful (Cao et al. 2011; Mudambi and Schuff 2010). For example, some online retailers, such as Amazon.com and TripAdvisor, allow users to rate the helpfulness of each review, and use this feedback information to rank and re-order them. However, many reviews have only a few feedbacks or no feedback at all, thus making it hard to identify their helpfulness. Also, it takes time to accumulate feedbacks, thus the newly authored reviews do not have enough ones. For example, only 20% of the reviews in Amazon Review Dataset (Mcauley and Leskovec, 2013) have more than 5 reviews (Yan et al, 2014). The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the usefulness of online product reviews and to derive a forecasting model that selectively provides product reviews that can be helpful to consumers. In order to do this, we extracted the various linguistic, psychological, and perceptual elements included in product reviews by using text-mining techniques and identifying the determinants among these elements that affect the usability of product reviews. In particular, considering that the characteristics of the product reviews and determinants of usability for apparel products (which are experiential products) and electronic products (which are search goods) can differ, the characteristics of the product reviews were compared within each product group and the determinants were established for each. This study used 7,498 apparel product reviews and 106,962 electronic product reviews from Amazon.com. In order to understand a review text, we first extract linguistic and psychological characteristics from review texts such as a word count, the level of emotional tone and analytical thinking embedded in review text using widely adopted text analysis software LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count). After then, we explore the descriptive statistics of review text for each category and statistically compare their differences using t-test. Lastly, we regression analysis using the data mining software RapidMiner to find out determinant factors. As a result of comparing and analyzing product review characteristics of electronic products and apparel products, it was found that reviewers used more words as well as longer sentences when writing product reviews for electronic products. As for the content characteristics of the product reviews, it was found that these reviews included many analytic words, carried more clout, and related to the cognitive processes (CogProc) more so than the apparel product reviews, in addition to including many words expressing negative emotions (NegEmo). On the other hand, the apparel product reviews included more personal, authentic, positive emotions (PosEmo) and perceptual processes (Percept) compared to the electronic product reviews. Next, we analyzed the determinants toward the usefulness of the product reviews between the two product groups. As a result, it was found that product reviews with high product ratings from reviewers in both product groups that were perceived as being useful contained a larger number of total words, many expressions involving perceptual processes, and fewer negative emotions. In addition, apparel product reviews with a large number of comparative expressions, a low expertise index, and concise content with fewer words in each sentence were perceived to be useful. In the case of electronic product reviews, those that were analytical with a high expertise index, along with containing many authentic expressions, cognitive processes, and positive emotions (PosEmo) were perceived to be useful. These findings are expected to help consumers effectively identify useful product reviews in the future.

A Study on the Clustering Method of Row and Multiplex Housing in Seoul Using K-Means Clustering Algorithm and Hedonic Model (K-Means Clustering 알고리즘과 헤도닉 모형을 활용한 서울시 연립·다세대 군집분류 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Soonjae;Kim, Seonghyeon;Tak, Onsik;Jeong, Hyeonhee
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.95-118
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    • 2017
  • Recent centrally the downtown area, the transaction between the row housing and multiplex housing is activated and platform services such as Zigbang and Dabang are growing. The row housing and multiplex housing is a blind spot for real estate information. Because there is a social problem, due to the change in market size and information asymmetry due to changes in demand. Also, the 5 or 25 districts used by the Seoul Metropolitan Government or the Korean Appraisal Board(hereafter, KAB) were established within the administrative boundaries and used in existing real estate studies. This is not a district classification for real estate researches because it is zoned urban planning. Based on the existing study, this study found that the city needs to reset the Seoul Metropolitan Government's spatial structure in estimating future housing prices. So, This study attempted to classify the area without spatial heterogeneity by the reflected the property price characteristics of row housing and Multiplex housing. In other words, There has been a problem that an inefficient side has arisen due to the simple division by the existing administrative district. Therefore, this study aims to cluster Seoul as a new area for more efficient real estate analysis. This study was applied to the hedonic model based on the real transactions price data of row housing and multiplex housing. And the K-Means Clustering algorithm was used to cluster the spatial structure of Seoul. In this study, data onto real transactions price of the Seoul Row housing and Multiplex Housing from January 2014 to December 2016, and the official land value of 2016 was used and it provided by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport(hereafter, MOLIT). Data preprocessing was followed by the following processing procedures: Removal of underground transaction, Price standardization per area, Removal of Real transaction case(above 5 and below -5). In this study, we analyzed data from 132,707 cases to 126,759 data through data preprocessing. The data analysis tool used the R program. After data preprocessing, data model was constructed. Priority, the K-means Clustering was performed. In addition, a regression analysis was conducted using Hedonic model and it was conducted a cosine similarity analysis. Based on the constructed data model, we clustered on the basis of the longitude and latitude of Seoul and conducted comparative analysis of existing area. The results of this study indicated that the goodness of fit of the model was above 75 % and the variables used for the Hedonic model were significant. In other words, 5 or 25 districts that is the area of the existing administrative area are divided into 16 districts. So, this study derived a clustering method of row housing and multiplex housing in Seoul using K-Means Clustering algorithm and hedonic model by the reflected the property price characteristics. Moreover, they presented academic and practical implications and presented the limitations of this study and the direction of future research. Academic implication has clustered by reflecting the property price characteristics in order to improve the problems of the areas used in the Seoul Metropolitan Government, KAB, and Existing Real Estate Research. Another academic implications are that apartments were the main study of existing real estate research, and has proposed a method of classifying area in Seoul using public information(i.e., real-data of MOLIT) of government 3.0. Practical implication is that it can be used as a basic data for real estate related research on row housing and multiplex housing. Another practical implications are that is expected the activation of row housing and multiplex housing research and, that is expected to increase the accuracy of the model of the actual transaction. The future research direction of this study involves conducting various analyses to overcome the limitations of the threshold and indicates the need for deeper research.

Suggestion of Urban Regeneration Type Recommendation System Based on Local Characteristics Using Text Mining (텍스트 마이닝을 활용한 지역 특성 기반 도시재생 유형 추천 시스템 제안)

  • Kim, Ikjun;Lee, Junho;Kim, Hyomin;Kang, Juyoung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.149-169
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    • 2020
  • "The Urban Renewal New Deal project", one of the government's major national projects, is about developing underdeveloped areas by investing 50 trillion won in 100 locations on the first year and 500 over the next four years. This project is drawing keen attention from the media and local governments. However, the project model which fails to reflect the original characteristics of the area as it divides project area into five categories: "Our Neighborhood Restoration, Housing Maintenance Support Type, General Neighborhood Type, Central Urban Type, and Economic Base Type," According to keywords for successful urban regeneration in Korea, "resident participation," "regional specialization," "ministerial cooperation" and "public-private cooperation", when local governments propose urban regeneration projects to the government, they can see that it is most important to accurately understand the characteristics of the city and push ahead with the projects in a way that suits the characteristics of the city with the help of local residents and private companies. In addition, considering the gentrification problem, which is one of the side effects of urban regeneration projects, it is important to select and implement urban regeneration types suitable for the characteristics of the area. In order to supplement the limitations of the 'Urban Regeneration New Deal Project' methodology, this study aims to propose a system that recommends urban regeneration types suitable for urban regeneration sites by utilizing various machine learning algorithms, referring to the urban regeneration types of the '2025 Seoul Metropolitan Government Urban Regeneration Strategy Plan' promoted based on regional characteristics. There are four types of urban regeneration in Seoul: "Low-use Low-Level Development, Abandonment, Deteriorated Housing, and Specialization of Historical and Cultural Resources" (Shon and Park, 2017). In order to identify regional characteristics, approximately 100,000 text data were collected for 22 regions where the project was carried out for a total of four types of urban regeneration. Using the collected data, we drew key keywords for each region according to the type of urban regeneration and conducted topic modeling to explore whether there were differences between types. As a result, it was confirmed that a number of topics related to real estate and economy appeared in old residential areas, and in the case of declining and underdeveloped areas, topics reflecting the characteristics of areas where industrial activities were active in the past appeared. In the case of the historical and cultural resource area, since it is an area that contains traces of the past, many keywords related to the government appeared. Therefore, it was possible to confirm political topics and cultural topics resulting from various events. Finally, in the case of low-use and under-developed areas, many topics on real estate and accessibility are emerging, so accessibility is good. It mainly had the characteristics of a region where development is planned or is likely to be developed. Furthermore, a model was implemented that proposes urban regeneration types tailored to regional characteristics for regions other than Seoul. Machine learning technology was used to implement the model, and training data and test data were randomly extracted at an 8:2 ratio and used. In order to compare the performance between various models, the input variables are set in two ways: Count Vector and TF-IDF Vector, and as Classifier, there are 5 types of SVM (Support Vector Machine), Decision Tree, Random Forest, Logistic Regression, and Gradient Boosting. By applying it, performance comparison for a total of 10 models was conducted. The model with the highest performance was the Gradient Boosting method using TF-IDF Vector input data, and the accuracy was 97%. Therefore, the recommendation system proposed in this study is expected to recommend urban regeneration types based on the regional characteristics of new business sites in the process of carrying out urban regeneration projects."

Geochemical Equilibria and Kinetics of the Formation of Brown-Colored Suspended/Precipitated Matter in Groundwater: Suggestion to Proper Pumping and Turbidity Treatment Methods (지하수내 갈색 부유/침전 물질의 생성 반응에 관한 평형 및 반응속도론적 연구: 적정 양수 기법 및 탁도 제거 방안에 대한 제안)

  • 채기탁;윤성택;염승준;김남진;민중혁
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2000
  • The formation of brown-colored precipitates is one of the serious problems frequently encountered in the development and supply of groundwater in Korea, because by it the water exceeds the drinking water standard in terms of color. taste. turbidity and dissolved iron concentration and of often results in scaling problem within the water supplying system. In groundwaters from the Pajoo area, brown precipitates are typically formed in a few hours after pumping-out. In this paper we examine the process of the brown precipitates' formation using the equilibrium thermodynamic and kinetic approaches, in order to understand the origin and geochemical pathway of the generation of turbidity in groundwater. The results of this study are used to suggest not only the proper pumping technique to minimize the formation of precipitates but also the optimal design of water treatment methods to improve the water quality. The bed-rock groundwater in the Pajoo area belongs to the Ca-$HCO_3$type that was evolved through water/rock (gneiss) interaction. Based on SEM-EDS and XRD analyses, the precipitates are identified as an amorphous, Fe-bearing oxides or hydroxides. By the use of multi-step filtration with pore sizes of 6, 4, 1, 0.45 and 0.2 $\mu\textrm{m}$, the precipitates mostly fall in the colloidal size (1 to 0.45 $\mu\textrm{m}$) but are concentrated (about 81%) in the range of 1 to 6 $\mu\textrm{m}$in teams of mass (weight) distribution. Large amounts of dissolved iron were possibly originated from dissolution of clinochlore in cataclasite which contains high amounts of Fe (up to 3 wt.%). The calculation of saturation index (using a computer code PHREEQC), as well as the examination of pH-Eh stability relations, also indicate that the final precipitates are Fe-oxy-hydroxide that is formed by the change of water chemistry (mainly, oxidation) due to the exposure to oxygen during the pumping-out of Fe(II)-bearing, reduced groundwater. After pumping-out, the groundwater shows the progressive decreases of pH, DO and alkalinity with elapsed time. However, turbidity increases and then decreases with time. The decrease of dissolved Fe concentration as a function of elapsed time after pumping-out is expressed as a regression equation Fe(II)=10.l exp(-0.0009t). The oxidation reaction due to the influx of free oxygen during the pumping and storage of groundwater results in the formation of brown precipitates, which is dependent on time, $Po_2$and pH. In order to obtain drinkable water quality, therefore, the precipitates should be removed by filtering after the stepwise storage and aeration in tanks with sufficient volume for sufficient time. Particle size distribution data also suggest that step-wise filtration would be cost-effective. To minimize the scaling within wells, the continued (if possible) pumping within the optimum pumping rate is recommended because this technique will be most effective for minimizing the mixing between deep Fe(II)-rich water and shallow $O_2$-rich water. The simultaneous pumping of shallow $O_2$-rich water in different wells is also recommended.

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Studies on the Estimation of Growth Pattern Cut-up Parts in Four Broiler Strain in Growing Body Weight (육용계에 있어서 계통간 산육능력 및 체중증가에 따른 각 부위별 증가양상 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 양봉국;조병욱
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.141-156
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    • 1990
  • The experiments were conducted to investigate the possibility of improving the effectiveness of the existing method to estimate the edible meat weight in the live broiler chicken. A total of 360 birds, five male and female chicks from each line were sacrificed at Trial 1 (body weight 900-1, 000g), Trial 2 (body weight 1.200-1, 400g), Trial 3(body weight 1, 600-1, 700), and Trial 4(body weight 2, 000g) in order to measure the body weight, edible meat weight of breast, thigh and drumsticks, and various components of body weight. Each line was reared at the Poultry Breeding Farm, Seoul National University from the second of july, 1987 to the thirteenth of September, 1987. The results obtained from this study were summarized as follows : 1. The average body weights of each line( H. T, M, A) were $2150.5\pm$34.9, $2133.0\pm$26.2, $1960.0\pm$23.1, and $2319.3\pm$27.9, respectively. at 7 weeks of age. The feed to body weight eain ratio for each line chicks was 2.55, 2.13, 2.08, and 2.03, respectively, for 0 to 7 weeks of age. The viability of each line was 99.7. 99.7, 100.0, and 100.0%, respectively, for 0 to 7 weeks of age.01 was noticed that A Line chicks grow significantly heavier than did T, H, M line chic ks from 0 to 7 weeks of age. The regression coefficients of growth curves from each line chicks were bA=1.015, bH=0.265, bM=0.950 and bT=0.242, respectively. 2. Among the body weight components, the feather. abdominal fat, breast, and thigh and drumsticks increased in their weight percentage as the birds grew older, while neck. head, giblets and inedible viscera decreased. No difference wat apparent in shank, wings and hack. 3. The weight percentages of breast in edible part for each line thicks were 19.2, 19.0, 19.9 and 19.0% at Trial 4, respectively. The weight percentages of thigh and drumsticks in edible part for each line chicks were 23.1, 23.3, 22.8, and 23.0% at Trial 4. respective1y. 4. The values for the percentage meat yield from breast were 77.2. 78.9 73.5 and 74.8% at Trial 4 in H, T, M and A Line chicks. respectively. For thigh and drumstick, the values of 80.3, 78.4. 79.7 and 80.2% were obtained. These data indicate that the percentage meat yield increase as the birds grow older. 5. The correlation coefficients between body weight and blood. head, shanks. breast. thigh-drumstick were high. The degree if correlation between abdominal fat(%) and percentage of edible meat were extremely low at all times, but those between abdominal fat (%) and inedible viscera were significantly high.

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Soil Texture, Electrical Conductivity and Chemical Components of Soils under the Plastic Film House Cultivation in Northern Central Areas of Korea (중북부지역(中北部地域) 시설원예지(施設園藝地) 토양(土壤)의 토성(土性), 염농도(鹽濃度) 및 화학성분(化學成分)의 조성(組成))

  • Jung, Goo-Bok;Ryu, In-Soo;Kim, Bok-Young
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 1994
  • This survey was conducted to investigate the factors affecting on salt accumulation and chemical components of soils cultivated with horticulture crops in plastic film houses. The soil samples were taken from 40 sites in the northern central areas of Korea and were analyzed for the chemical properties and soil separates. The data were evaluated with soil texture and years of cultivation as major factors. The results are summarized as follows : 1. The chemical properties of surface soils in plastic film house were pH 5.80, EC $3.59mScm^{-1}$, O.M. 4.20%, Av. $P_2O_5$ 1,178ppm, $NO_3-N$ 180ppm, Av. $SO_4{^{2-}}$ 353ppm, $Cl^-$ 240ppm, Ex. Na 0.40me/100g. 2. Compared to the outside soil of plastic film house, the inside soil had 2.5~3 times higher contents of $NO_3-N$, Av. $SO_4{^{2-}}$ and $Cl^-$, 1.2~1.8 times higher exchangeable base elements, and 2.8 times higher electrical conductivity. But pH value of the inside soil was lower than the outside soil by 0.3 pH unit. 3. Soil texture classification showed that sandy loam, loam and silt loam were 32.5 %, 37.5 %, and 30.0 %, respectively. The contents of $NO_3-N$, Av. $SO_4{^{2-}}$, $NH_4-N$ and EC value were very high in silt loam soils. Av. $P_2O_5$ content and pH value of sandy loam soils were higher than those of silt loam and loam soils. 4. The contents of O.M. and Av. $P_2O_5$ were higher in long term cultivation, but the contents of $NO_3-N$, Av. $SO_4{^{2-}}$, $Cl^-$, Ex. Mg and Ex. Na including EC of the soil with 2~4 years cultivation were higher than those of the soil with above 5 years cultivation. 5. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that contribution degree of soil chemical properties to the EC was high in the order of $NO_3-N$ > Av. $SO_4{^{2-}}$ > Ex. Na > $Cl^-$ > Av. $P_2O_5$ > $NH_4-N$ > Ex. Mg>Ex. Ca. Among the soil chemical properties the contribution of anions was remarkably high. 6. EC value correlated with ${\sum}A$(total content of anions)as $r=0.932^{**}$ and with ${\sum}C$(total content of cations) as $r=0.452^{**}$.

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Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

Postoperstive Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer (국소 진행된 직장암에서 수술 후 화학방사선요법)

  • Chai, Gyu-Young;Kang, Ki-Mun;Choi, Sang-Gyeong
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.221-227
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : To evaluate the role of postoperative chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer, we retrospectively analyzed the treatment results of patients treated by curative surgical resection and postoperative chemoradiotherapy. Materials and Methods : From April 1989 through December 1998, 119 patients were treated with curative surgery and postoperative chemoradiotherapy for rectal carcinoma in Gyeongsang National University Hospital. Patient age ranged from 32 to 73 years, with a median age of 56 years. Low anterior resection was peformed in 59 patients, and abdominoperineal resection in 60. Forty-three patients were AJCC stage II and 76 were stage III. Radiation was delivered with 6 MV X rays using either AP-PA two fields, AP-PA both lateral four fields, or PA both lateral three fields. Total radiation dose ranged from 40 Gy to 56 Gy. In 73 patients, bolus infusions of 5-FU $(400\;mg/m^2)$ were given during the first and fourth weeks of radiotherapy. After completion of radiotherapy, an additional four to six cycles of 5-FU were given. Oral 5-FU (Furtulone) was given for nine months in 46 patients. Results : Forty $(33.7\%)$ of the 119 patients showed treatment failure. Local failure occurred in 16 $(13.5\%)$ patients, 1 $(2.3\%)$ of 43 stage II patients and 15 $(19.7\%)$ of 76 stage III patients. Distant failure occurred in 31 $(26.1\%)$ patients, among whom 5 $(11.6\%)$ were stage II and 26 $(34.2\%)$ were stage III. Five-year actuarial survival was $56.2\%$ overall, $71.1\%$ in stage II patients and $49.1\%$ in stage III patients (p=0.0008). Five-year disease free survival was $53.3\%$ overall, $68.1\%$ in stage II and $45.8\%$ in stage III (p=0.0006). Multivariate analysis showed that T stage and N stage were significant prognostic factors for five year survival, and that T stage, N stage, and preoperative CEA value were significant prognostic factors for five year disease free survival. Bowel complication occurred in 22 patients, and was treated surgically in 15 $(12.6\%)$, and conservatively in 7 $(5.9\%)$. Conclusion : Postoperative chemoradiotherapy was confirmed to be an effective modality for local control of rectal cancer, but the distant failure rate remained high. More effective modalities should be investigated to lower the distant failure rate.