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Uncertainty quantification and propagation with probability boxes

  • Duran-Vinuesa, L.;Cuervo, D.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.8
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    • pp.2523-2533
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    • 2021
  • In the last decade, the best estimate plus uncertainty methodologies in nuclear technology and nuclear power plant design have become a trending topic in the nuclear field. Since BEPU was allowed for licensing purposes by the most important regulator bodies, different uncertainty assessment methods have become popular, overall non-parametric methods. While non-parametric tolerance regions can be well stated and used in uncertainty quantification for licensing purposes, the propagation of the uncertainty through different codes (multi-scale, multiphysics) in cascade needs a better depiction of uncertainty than the one provided by the tolerance regions or a probability distribution. An alternative method based on the parametric or distributional probability boxes is used to perform uncertainty quantification and propagation regarding statistic uncertainty from one code to another. This method is sample-size independent and allows well-defined tolerance intervals for uncertainty quantification, manageable for uncertainty propagation. This work characterizes the distributional p-boxes behavior on uncertainty quantification and uncertainty propagation through nested random sampling.

Method for Evaluating Radionuclide Transport in Biosphere by Calculating Elapsed Transport Time (이동 경과 시간 계산을 이용한 생물권에서의 방사성 핵종 이동 평가 방법)

  • Ko, Nak-Youl;Ji, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.18 no.2_spc
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    • pp.305-315
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    • 2020
  • For geological disposal of radioactive wastes, a method was proposed to evaluate the radionuclide transport in the biosphere by calculating the elapsed time of nuclide migration. The radionuclides were supposed to be introduced from a natural barrier and reached a large surface water body following a groundwater flow in a shallow subsurface. The biosphere was defined as a shallow subsurface environment that included aquifers on a host rock. Using the proposed method, a calculation algorithm was established, and a computer code that implemented the algorithm was developed. The developed code was verified by comparing the simulation results of the simple cases with the results of the analytical solution and a public program, which has been widely used to evaluate the radiation dose using the radionuclide transport near the surface. A case study was constructed using the previous research for radionuclide transport from the hypothetical geological disposal repository. In the case study, the code calculated the mass discharge rate of radionuclide to a stream in the biosphere. Because the previous research only demonstrated the transport of radionuclides from the hypothetical repository to the host rock, the developed code in the present study could help identify the total transport of radionuclide along the complete pathway.

A Study on a Phase-encoded Multiplexing Method in Holographic Memory System (홀로그래픽 메모리시스템에서 위상 다중화 인코딩에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Byung-Chul;Kim, Kyu-Tae;Gil, Sang-Keun;Kim, Eun-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics D
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    • v.36D no.10
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    • pp.51-60
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    • 1999
  • For an effective phase-multiplexing in holographic memory system, four types of phase code used as reference beam are generated. In case of $32 {\times} 32$ address beam, a phase error with 0%, 5%, 10% 15%, 20%, and 25% error rate, is purposely added to the real phase values in order to consider the practical SLM's nonlinear characteristics of phase modulation in computer simulation, cross talks and SNRs are comparatively analysed for these phase-codes by the auto and cross-correlation. Pseudo-Random(PSR) Phase Code has the lowest cross-correlation mean value of 0.067 among four types of Phase Code, which means the SNR of the PSR is higher than other Phase Codes. Also, the standard deviation of the PSR phase code indicating the degree of recalled data degradation is the lowest value of 0.0113.

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Evaluation of multi-lane transverse reduction factor under random vehicle load

  • Yang, Xiaoyan;Gong, Jinxin;Xu, Bohan;Zhu, Jichao
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.725-736
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    • 2017
  • This paper presents the two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factor based on FEA method, probability theory, and the recently actual traffic flow data. A total of 72 composite girder bridges with various spans, number of lanes, loading mode, and bridge type are analyzed with time-varying static load FEA method by ANSYS, and the probability models of vehicle load effects at arbitrary-time point are developed. Based on these probability models, in accordance to the principle of the same exceeding probability, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor of these composite girder bridges and the relationship between the multi-lane transverse reduction factor and the span of bridge are determined. Finally, the multi-lane transverse reduction factor obtained is compared with those from AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode. The results show that the vehicle load effect at arbitrary-time point follows lognormal distribution. The two-, three-, and four-lane transverse reduction factors calculated by using FEA method and probability respectively range between 0.781 and 1.027, 0.616 and 0.795, 0.468 and 0.645. Furthermore, a correlation between the FEA and AASHTO LRFD, BS5400, JTG D60 or Eurocode transverse reduction factors is made for composite girder bridges. For the two-, three-, and four-lane bridge cases, the Eurocode code underestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors by 27%, 25% and 13%, respectively. This underestimation is more pronounced in short-span bridges. The AASHTO LRFD, BS5400 and JTG D60 codes overestimated the FEA transverse reduction factors. The FEA results highlight the importance of considering span length in determining the multi-lane transverse reduction factors when designing two-lane or more composite girder bridges. This paper will assist bridge engineers in quantifying the adjustment factors used in analyzing and designing multi-lane composite girder bridges.

Design of Radio Interface Protocols for Broadband CDMA Wireless Local Loop and Access Channel Performance Analysis (광대역 CDMA WLL 무선 프로토콜 설계 및 액세스채널의 성능분석)

  • 김영태;박기식;조정호;김광현;이태훈
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, we design the radio interface protocols of wideband Wireless Local Loop(WLL) that uses wideband Code Division Multiple Access(CDMA), and propose the random access procedures on access channel and analyze the performance of the channel. The structure of radio interface protocols are designed by three modular parts to meet the requirements of IMT-2000 : radio resource controlling part that depends on the radio resources, connection controlling part that is independent of the radio resources, and application part that supports the interface between different parts and user terminals. In addition, we propose the random access procedures on access channel and analyze the performance of the channel. We assume that both near-far effect and shadow fading can be compensated by open loop power control. We observe that the number of access probes(delay) depend on the initial mobile transmission power and power increment, and the poor estimation of initial mobile transmission power might increase the average number of access probes.

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Authentication Algorithm using Random Graphic Code (무작위적인 그래픽 코드를 이용한 인증 알고리즘)

  • Jeong, Pil-Seong;Cho, Yang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.12
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2019
  • Using a smartphone allows quick and easy authentication and payment. However, smartphone security threats are evolving into a variety of new hacking technologies, and are changing to attacks specific to the mobile environment. Therefore, there is a demand for an authentication method suitable for a mobile environment. In order to solve security weaknesses in knowledge-based authentication, many companies provide two-step authentication services such as OTP(One Time Password) to provide authentication services such as finance, games, and login. Although OTP service is easy to use, it is easy to duplicate random number table and has a disadvantage that can be reused because it is used as valid value within time limit. In this paper, we propose a mechanism that enables users to quickly and easily authenticate with high security using the authentication method that recognizes special characters through smartphone's dedicated application.

Optical Encryption of Binary Information using 2-step Phase-shifting Digital Holography (2-단계 위상 천이 디지털 홀로그래피를 이용한 이진 정보 광 암호화 기법)

  • Byun, Hyun-Joong;Gil, Sang-Keun
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.401-411
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    • 2006
  • We propose an optical encryption/decryption technique for a security system based on 2-step phase-shifting digital holography. Phase-shilling digital holography is used for recording phase and amplitude information on a CCD device. 2-step phase-shifting is implemented by moving the PZT mirror with phase step of 0 or ${\pi}/2$. The binary data and the key are expressed with random code and random phase patterns. The digital hologram is a Fourier transform hologram and is recorded on CCD with 256 gray level quantization. We remove the DC term of the digital hologram fur data reconstruction, which is essential to reconstruct the original binary input data/image. The error evaluation fer the decrypted binary data is analyzed. One of errors is a quantization error in detecting the hologram intensity on CCD, and the other is generated from decrypting the data with the incorrect key. The technique using 2-step phase-shifting holography is more efficient than a 4-step method because 2-step phase-shifting holography system uses less data than the 4-step method for data storage or transmission. The simulation shows that the proposed technique gives good results fur the optical encryption of binary information.

Physical and numerical modelling of the inherent variability of shear strength in soil mechanics

  • Chenari, Reza Jamshidi;Fatahi, Behzad;Ghoreishi, Malahat;Taleb, Ali
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.31-45
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    • 2019
  • In this study the spatial variability of soils is substantiated physically and numerically by using random field theory. Heterogeneous samples are fabricated by combining nine homogeneous soil clusters that are assumed to be elements of an adopted random field. Homogeneous soils are prepared by mixing different percentages of kaolin and bentonite at water contents equivalent to their respective liquid limits. Comprehensive characteristic laboratory tests were carried out before embarking on direct shear experiments to deduce the basic correlations and properties of nine homogeneous soil clusters that serve to reconstitute the heterogeneous samples. The tests consist of Atterberg limits, and Oedometric and unconfined compression tests. The undrained shear strength of nine soil clusters were measured by the unconfined compression test data, and then correlations were made between the water content and the strength and stiffness of soil samples with different consistency limits. The direct shear strength of heterogeneous samples of different stochastic properties was then evaluated by physical and numerical modelling using FISH code programming in finite difference software of $FLAC^{3D}$. The results of the experimental and stochastic numerical analyses were then compared. The deviation of numerical simulations from direct shear load-displacement profiles taken from different sources were discussed, potential sources of error was introduced and elaborated. This study was primarily to explain the mathematical and physical procedures of sample preparation in stochastic soil mechanics. It can be extended to different problems and applications in geotechnical engineering discipline to take in to account the variability of strength and deformation parameters.

Numerical Modeling for the Identification of Fouling Layer in Track Ballast Ground (자갈도상 지반에서의 파울링층 식별을 위한 수치해석연구)

  • Go, Gyu-Hyun;Lee, Sung-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.37 no.9
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    • pp.13-24
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    • 2021
  • Recently, attempts have been made to detect fouling patterns in the ground using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) during the maintenance of gravel ballast railway tracks. However, dealing with GPR signal data obtained with a large amount of noise in a site where complex ground conditions are mixed, often depends on the experience of experts, and there are many difficulties in precise analysis. Therefore, in this study, a numerical modeling technique that can quantitatively simulate the GPR signal characteristics according to the degree of fouling of the gravel ballast material was proposed using python-based open-source code gprMax and RSA (Random sequential Absorption) algorithm. To confirm the accuracy of the simulation model, model tests were manufactured and the results were compared to each other. In addition, the identification of the fouling layer in the model test and analysis by various test conditions was evaluated and the results were analyzed.

A Hybrid Modeling Method for RCS Worm Simulation (RCS 웜 시뮬레이션을 위한 Hybrid 모델링 방법)

  • Kim, Jung-Sik;Park, Jin-Ho;Cho, Jae-Ik;Choi, Kyoung-Ho;Im, Eul-Gyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.43-53
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    • 2007
  • Internet becomes more and more popular, and most companies and institutes use web services for e-business and many other purposes. With the explosion of Internet, the occurrence of cyber terrorism has grown very rapidly. Simulation is one of the most widely used method to study internet worms. But, it is quite challenging to simulate very large-scale worm attacks because of various reasons. In this paper, we propose a hybrid modeling method for RCS(Random Constant Spreading) worm simulation. The proposed hybrid model simulates worm attacks by synchronizing modeling network and packet network. So, this model will be both detailed enough to generate realistic packet traffic, and efficient enough to model a worm spreading through the Internet. Moreover, our model have the capability of dynamic updates of the modeling parameters. Finally, we simulate the hybrid model with the CodeRed worm to show validity of our proposed model for RCS worm simulation.