• Title/Summary/Keyword: Radiation Prediction

Search Result 524, Processing Time 0.023 seconds

A Study on Prediction Techniques through Machine Learning of Real-time Solar Radiation in Jeju (제주 실시간 일사량의 기계학습 예측 기법 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Mi;Bae, Joo-Hyun;Park, Jeong-keun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.521-527
    • /
    • 2017
  • Solar radiation forecasts are important for predicting the amount of ice on road and the potential solar energy. In an attempt to improve solar radiation predictability in Jeju, we conducted machine learning with various data mining techniques such as tree models, conditional inference tree, random forest, support vector machines and logistic regression. To validate machine learning models, the results from the simulation was compared with the solar radiation data observed over Jeju observation site. According to the model assesment, it can be seen that the solar radiation prediction using random forest is the most effective method. The error rate proposed by random forest data mining is 17%.

Forecasting of Short Term Photovoltaic Generation by Various Input Model in Supervised Learning (지도학습에서 다양한 입력 모델에 의한 초단기 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Jang, Jin-Hyuk;Shin, Dong-Ha;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.478-484
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study predicts solar radiation, solar radiation, and solar power generation using hourly weather data such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine and solar radiation. I/O pattern in supervised learning is the most important factor in prediction, but it must be determined by repeated experiments because humans have to decide. This study proposed four input and output patterns for solar and sunrise prediction. In addition, we predicted solar power generation using the predicted solar and solar radiation data and power generation data of Youngam solar power plant in Jeollanamdo. As a experiment result, the model 4 showed the best prediction results in the sunshine and solar radiation prediction, and the RMSE of sunshine was 1.5 times and the sunshine RMSE was 3 times less than that of model 1. As a experiment result of solar power generation prediction, the best prediction result was obtained for model 4 as well as sunshine and solar radiation, and the RMSE was reduced by 2.7 times less than that of model 1.

Prediction of Sound Radiation Power from Coupled Structures using SEA (SEA 법에 의한 결합구조물의 음향방사파워 예측)

  • 오재응
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
    • /
    • 1987.11a
    • /
    • pp.24-30
    • /
    • 1987
  • SEA method have been developed for prediction sound radiation power from vibration of machinery. In this study, sound radiation power was predicted from coupled structures by transmission of vibration, which composed of two plates welded at right angle. The predicted sound radiation power is agreement within 2 or 3 dB on octave band comparing with values obtained from direct measurements. Also, in order to prove the validity of this method in changes of sound radiation power associated with modifications to structures, rubber pad stuck on a plate. This result is agreement approximately within 3 or 5 dB.

  • PDF

Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowscast of Aviation Radiation Dose

  • Hwang, Junga;Kim, Kyung-Chan;Dokgo, Kyunghwan;Choi, Enjin;Kim, Hang-Pyo
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-44
    • /
    • 2015
  • It is well known that the space radiation dose over the polar route should be carefully considered especially when the space weather shows sudden disturbances such as CME and flares. The National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) and Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) recently established a basis for a space radiation service for the public by developing a space radiation prediction model and heliocentric potential (HCP) prediction model. The HCP value is used as a critical input value of the CARI-6 and CARI-6M programs, which estimate the aviation route dose. The CARI-6/6M is the most widely used and confidential program that is officially provided by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The HCP value is given one month late in the FAA official webpage, making it difficult to obtain real-time information on the aviation route dose. In order to overcome this limitation regarding time delay, we developed a HCP prediction model based on the sunspot number variation. In this paper, we focus on the purpose and process of our HCP prediction model development. Finally, we find the highest correlation coefficient of 0.9 between the monthly sunspot number and the HCP value with an eight month time shift.

Prediction of the Exposure to 1763MHz Radiofrequency Radiation Based on Gene Expression Patterns

  • Lee, Min-Su;Huang, Tai-Qin;Seo, Jeong-Sun;Park, Woong-Yang
    • Genomics & Informatics
    • /
    • v.5 no.3
    • /
    • pp.102-106
    • /
    • 2007
  • Radiofrequency (RF) radiation at the frequency of mobile phones has been not reported to induce cellular responses in in vitro and in vivo models. We exposed HEI-OC1, conditionally-immortalized mouse auditory cells, to RF radiation to characterize cellular responses to 1763 MHz RF radiation. While we could not detect any differences upon RF exposure, whole-genome expression profiling might provide the most sensitive method to find the molecular responses to RF radiation. HEI-OC1 cells were exposed to 1763 MHz RF radiation at an average specific absorption rate (SAR) of 20 W/kg for 24 hr and harvested after 5 hr of recovery (R5), alongside sham-exposed samples (S5). From the whole-genome profiles of mouse neurons, we selected 9 differentially-expressed genes between the S5 and R5 groups using information gain-based recursive feature elimination procedure. Based on support vector machine (SVM), we designed a prediction model using the 9 genes to discriminate the two groups. Our prediction model could predict the target class without any error. From these results, we developed a prediction model using biomarkers to determine the RF radiation exposure in mouse auditory cells with perfect accuracy, which may need validation in in vivo RF-exposure models.

Empirical Study on the Value Comparison Between Cosmic Radiation Measuring Instruments and Prediction Programs (항공기 탑재 우주방사선 측정장비와 예측프로그램의 비교값 실증연구)

  • Kyu-Wang Kim;Youn-Chul Choi
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.755-762
    • /
    • 2023
  • The reliability of measuring instruments is essential in measuring cosmic radiation. To demonstrate this importance, this study measured and compared the amount of cosmic radiation using Liulin and TEPC, operated in South Korea, on a flight between Incheon, South Korea and LA, the US. In addition, since prior analysis based on a prediction program is necessary in advance to check the dose of cosmic radiation, this study utilized KREAM developed in Korea and the CARI-6M developed by the FAA to acquire the predicted value. As a result of the verification, the reliability of the two devices falls within the acceptable level of 20%, proving the reliability. Moreover, the differences between the values acquired by each prediction program were only subtle. Nevertheless, the analysis demonstrated that the prediction value obtained by the programs and the measured value had significant differences. Therefore, additional correction of the discrepancies or continuous research for such is required to match the predicted values are similar to the actual measured values.

Solar radiation forecasting using boosting decision tree and recurrent neural networks

  • Hyojeoung, Kim;Sujin, Park;Sahm, Kim
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.29 no.6
    • /
    • pp.709-719
    • /
    • 2022
  • Recently, as the importance of environmental protection has emerged, interest in new and renewable energy is also increasing worldwide. In particular, the solar energy sector accounts for the highest production rate among new and renewable energy in Korea due to its infinite resources, easy installation and maintenance, and eco-friendly characteristics such as low noise emission levels and less pollutants during power generation. However, although climate prediction is essential since solar power is affected by weather and climate change, solar radiation, which is closely related to solar power, is not currently forecasted by the Korea Meteorological Administration. Solar radiation prediction can be the basis for establishing a reasonable new and renewable energy operation plan, and it is very important because it can be used not only in solar power but also in other fields such as power consumption prediction. Therefore, this study was conducted for the purpose of improving the accuracy of solar radiation. Solar radiation was predicted by a total of three weather variables, temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, and solar radiation outside the atmosphere, and the results were compared using various models. The CatBoost model was best obtained by fitting and comparing the Boosting series (XGB, CatBoost) and RNN series (Simple RNN, LSTM, GRU) models. In addition, the results were further improved through Time series cross-validation.

Hybrid radiation technique of frequency-domain Rankine source method for prediction of ship motion at forward speed

  • Oh, Seunghoon;Kim, Booki
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.260-277
    • /
    • 2021
  • The appropriate radiation conditions of ship motion problem with advancing speed in frequency domain are investigated from a theoretical and practical point of view. From extensive numerical experiments that have been conducted for evaluation of the relevant radiation conditions, a hybrid radiation technique is proposed in which the Sommerfeld radiation condition and the free surface damping are mixed. Based on the comparison with the results of the translating and pulsating Green function method, the optimal damping factor of the hybrid radiation technique is selected, and the observed limitations of the proposed hybrid radiation technique are discussed, along with its accuracy obtained from the numerical solutions. Comparative studies of the forward-speed seakeeping prediction methods available confirm that the results of applying the hybrid radiation technique are relatively similar to those obtained from the translating and pulsating Green function method. This confirmation is made in comparisons with the results of solely applying either the free surface damping, or the Sommerfeld radiation condition. By applying the proposed hybrid radiation technique, the wave patterns, hydrodynamic coefficients, and motion responses of the Wigley III hull are finally calculated, and compared with those of model tests. It is found that, in comparison with the model test results, the three-dimensional Rankine source method adopting the proposed hybrid radiation technique is more robust in terms of accuracy and numerical stability, as well as in obtaining the forward speed seakeeping solution.

Development of a Short-term Model for Ozone Using OPI (오존최대농도지표를 이용한 오존단기예측모형 개발)

  • 전의찬;김정욱
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.15 no.5
    • /
    • pp.545-554
    • /
    • 1999
  • We would like to develop a short-term model to predict the time-related concentration of ozone whose reaction mechanism is complex. The paper targets Seoul where an ozone alert system has recently been employed. In order to develop a short-term prediction model for ozone, we suggested the Ozone Peak Indicator(OPI), an equivalent of the potential daily maximum ozone concentration, with precursors being the only limiting factor, and we calculated the Ozone Peak Indicarot as OPI={$ rac{(O_3)_{max}cdot(H_{eH})_{max}(Rad)_{max}$ to preclude the influence of mixing height and solar radiation on the daily maximum ozone concentration. The OPI on the day of the prediction is to be calcultated by using the relation between OPI and the initial value of precursors. The basic prediction formula for time-related ozone concentration was established as $O_3(1)={(OPI)cdot Rad(t-2)H_{eH}}$, using the OPI, solar radiation two hours before prediction and mixing height. We developed, along with the basic formula for predicting photochemical oxidants, "SEOM"(Seoul Empirical Oxidants Model), a Fortran program that helps predict solar radiation and mixing height needed in the prediction of ozone pollution. When this model was applied to Seoul and an analysis of the correlation between the observed and the predicted ozone concentrations was made through SEOM, there appeared a very high correlation, with a coefficient of 0.815. SEOM can be described as a short-term prediction model for ozone concentration in large cities that takes into account the initial values of precursors, and changes in solar radiation and mixing height. SEOM can reflect the local characteristics of a particular and region can yield relatively good prediction results by a simple data input process.t process.

  • PDF

A Numerical Study on Temperature Prediction Bias using FDS in Simulated Thermal Environments of Fire (모사된 화재의 열적환경에서 FDS를 이용한 온도 예측오차에 관한 수치해석 연구)

  • Han, Ho-Sik;Kim, Bong-Jun;Hwang, Cheol-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.32 no.2
    • /
    • pp.14-20
    • /
    • 2017
  • A numerical study was conducted to identify the predictive performance for the bare-bead thermocouple (TC) using FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in simulated thermal environments of fire. A relative prediction bias of TC temperature calculated from reverse-radiation correction by FDS was evaluated with the comparison of previous experimental data. As a result, it was identified that the TC temperatures predicted by FDS were lower than the temperatures measured by bare-bead TC for the ranges of heat flux and gas temperature considered. The relative prediction bias of TC temperature by FDS was gradually increased with the increase in radiative heat flux and also significantly increased with the decrease in the gas temperature. Quantitatively, at the gas temperature of $20^{\circ}C$, the TC temperature predicted by FDS had the relative bias of approximately -20% with the radiative heat flux of $20kW/m^2$ corresponding to thermal radiation level of the flashover. It is predicted from the present study that more accurate validation of fire modeling will be possible with the quantitative prediction bias occurred in the process of reverse-radiation correction of temperature predicted by FDS.