Abstract
We would like to develop a short-term model to predict the time-related concentration of ozone whose reaction mechanism is complex. The paper targets Seoul where an ozone alert system has recently been employed. In order to develop a short-term prediction model for ozone, we suggested the Ozone Peak Indicator(OPI), an equivalent of the potential daily maximum ozone concentration, with precursors being the only limiting factor, and we calculated the Ozone Peak Indicarot as OPI={$ rac{(O_3)_{max}cdot(H_{eH})_{max}(Rad)_{max}$ to preclude the influence of mixing height and solar radiation on the daily maximum ozone concentration. The OPI on the day of the prediction is to be calcultated by using the relation between OPI and the initial value of precursors. The basic prediction formula for time-related ozone concentration was established as $O_3(1)={(OPI)cdot Rad(t-2)H_{eH}}$, using the OPI, solar radiation two hours before prediction and mixing height. We developed, along with the basic formula for predicting photochemical oxidants, "SEOM"(Seoul Empirical Oxidants Model), a Fortran program that helps predict solar radiation and mixing height needed in the prediction of ozone pollution. When this model was applied to Seoul and an analysis of the correlation between the observed and the predicted ozone concentrations was made through SEOM, there appeared a very high correlation, with a coefficient of 0.815. SEOM can be described as a short-term prediction model for ozone concentration in large cities that takes into account the initial values of precursors, and changes in solar radiation and mixing height. SEOM can reflect the local characteristics of a particular and region can yield relatively good prediction results by a simple data input process.t process.
