• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.348-357
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• 2015

The main purpose of this study is to understand the potential geographic distribution of P. koraiensis, which is known to be one of major economic tree species, based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenarios and current geographic distribution from National Forest Inventory(NFI) data using ecological niche modeling. P. koraiensis abundance data extracted from NFI were utilized to estimate current geographic distribution. Also, GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production) model, one of the ecological niche models, was applied to estimate potential geographic distribution and to project future changes. Environmental explanatory variables showing Area Under Curve (AUC) value bigger than 0.6 were selected and constructed into the final model by running the model for each of the 27 variables. The results of the model validation which was performed based on confusion matrix statistics, showed quite high suitability. Currently P. koraiensis is distributed widely from 300m to 1,200m in altitude and from south to north as a result of national greening project in 1970s although major populations are found in elevated and northern area. The results of this study were successful in showing the current distribution of P. koraiensis and projecting their future changes. Future model for P. koraiensis suggest large areas predicted under current climate conditions may be contracted by 2090s showing dramatic habitat loss. Considering the increasing status of atmospheric $CO_2$ and air temperature in Korea, P. koraiensis seems to experience the significant decrease of potential distribution range in the future. The final model in this study may be used to identify climate change impacts on distribution of P. koraiensis in Korea, and a deeper understanding of its correlation may be helpful when planning afforestation strategies.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-46
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• 2015

In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May-June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % ($NO_2$) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.43-43
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• 2020

보령댐은 충남 서부지역 8개 시·군에 생활용수와 공업용수를 공급하고 있는 중요한 수원으로 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 연속적인 가뭄으로 2015년에는 저수율이 7.5 %까지 감소하여 제한급수가 시행되었다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄으로 인한 물 공급 부족에 취약함을 보인 보령댐 유역(297.4 ㎢)을 대상으로 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모델과 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 활용하여 극한 기후변화 사상이 반영된 보령댐의 내한능력을 평가하였다. SWAT 모형을 활용하여 보령댐의 물수지를 모의하기 위하여 보령댐의 실측 유출량, 저수량, 방류량으로 보령댐 유입량과 저수량을 보정(2002~2004) 및 검정(2005~2007)하였으며, 실측 저수량을 기반으로 미래 댐 운영을 모의하였다. 검·보정 결과, 댐 유입량과 저수량의 PBIAS(%)는 -0.04, -0.09, NSE(Nash and Sutcliffe Efficiency)는 0.52, 0.96, RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)는 1.80 mm/day, 0.67 × 10⁶㎥로 분석되어 신뢰성 있는 모의 결과를 보였다. 보정된 SWAT 모형으로 가뭄 사상이 반영된 기후변화를 모의하기 위하여 APCC의 26개 CMIP5 GCM 시나리오를 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)와 연속 이론(Runs theory)으로 분석하여 6개의 극한 가뭄 시나리오 (RCP 4.5, 8.5 CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, IPSL-CM5A-MR)를 선정하였으며, 선정된 시나리오를 모형에 적용하여 가뭄 사상을 반영한 보령댐의 미래 내한능력을 평가하였다. 내한능력평가 및 분석 기간은 Historical(1980~1999; 1990s), Present(2000~2019; 2010s), 그리고 미래 기간 (2020~2039; 2030s, 2040~2059; 2050s, 2060~2079; 2070s, 2080~2099; 2090s)으로 나누었으며, 취약성(Reliability), 회복성(Resilience), 위험성(Vulnerability), 세 가지 지표로 내한능력 평가를 수행하였다. 평가 결과, 미래 취약성은 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.803까지 감소하였으며, 회복성과 위험성은 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR 시나리오에서 0.003, 3,567.6 × 10⁶㎥까지 감소하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.267-275
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• 2013

This study projected the future ocean wave climate changes based on global climate change scenario using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO according to the emission scenarios and using regional wave model. Annual mean significant wave height (SWH) is linked closely to annual mean wind speed during the forthcoming 21st Century. Because annual mean speed decreased in the western North Pacific, annual mean SWH is projected to decrease in the future. The annual mean SWH decreases for the last 30 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1971-2000 are 2~7% for RCP4.5 and 4~11% for RCP8.5, respectively. Also, extreme SWH and wind speed are projected to decrease in the future. In terms of seasonal mean, winter extreme SWH shows similar trend with annual extreme SWH; however, that of summer shows large increasing tendency compared with current climate in the western North Pacific. Therefore, typhoon intensity in the future might be more severe in the future climate.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.14-26
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• 2021

Increase of climate variability due to climate change has paved the way for regional drought monitoring and outlook. In particular, Gimcheon-si, Gyeongsangbuk-do, is suffering from frequent and periodic drought damage as the frequency and magnitude of drought are increasing due to climate change. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze drought characteristics for sub-districts based on water district and calculate the basic low-flow considering climate change. In this study, meteorological and hydrological drought outlook were carried out for 8 sub-districts considering the water supply system and regional characteristics of Gimcheon-si according to various climate change scenarios. In addition, the low-flow frequency analysis for the near future was also performed using the total amount of runoff and the low-flow. The overall results indicated that, meteorological droughts were found to be dangerous in the S0(1974~2019) period and hydrological droughts would be dangerous in the S2(2041~2070) period for RCP 4.5 and in S3(2071~2099) period for RCP 8.5. The results of low-flow frequency analysis indicated that future runoff would increase but drought magnitude and frequency would increase further. The results and methodology may be useful for preparing local governments' drought measures and design standards for local water resources facilities.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.146-146
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• 2019

The aridity index, which is determined as the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation, is one of key parameters in drought characterization. Whereas the evaporative index, which is defined as the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, represents the fraction of available water consumed by the evapotranspiration process. This study investigates variation of the aridity and evaporative indexes due to climate change during the 21st century in South Korea. Estimations of the aridity and evaporative indexes are obtained using SWAT mode based on ensemble of 13 different GCMs over 5 large basins of South Korea for 2 RCP scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results shows the opposite trends of the two indexes, where the aridity index is projected as always increase, while the evaporative index is expected to decrease in all of 3 future period (2011-1940, 1941-1970, 1971-2099). The estimated results also suggest that land cover influenced significantly evapotranspiration along with the change of climate. The study indicates that South Korea will be facing with a high risk of water scarcity in future due to climate change, which is seriously challenging for water planing and management in the country.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.298-307
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• 2018

Background: Subalpine ecosystems at high altitudes and latitudes are particularly sensitive to climate change. In South Korea, the prediction of the species richness of subalpine plant species under future climate change is not well studied. Thus, this study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change on species richness of subalpine plant species (14 species) in the 17 mountain national parks (MNPs) of South Korea under climate change scenarios' representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and Migclim for the years 2050 and 2070. Results: Altogether, 723 species occurrence points of 14 species and six selected variables were used in modeling. The models developed for all species showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.89 and TSS > 0.70). The results predicted a significant loss of species richness in all MNPs. Under RCP 4.5, the range of reduction was predicted to be 15.38-94.02% by 2050 and 21.42-96.64% by 2070. Similarly, under RCP 8.5, it will decline 15.38-97.9% by 2050 and 23.07-100% by 2070. The reduction was relatively high in the MNPs located in the central regions (Songnisan and Gyeryongsan), eastern region (Juwangsan), and southern regions (Mudeungsan, Wolchulsan, Hallasan, and Jirisan) compared to the northern and northeastern regions (Odaesan, Seoraksan, Chiaksan, and Taebaeksan). Conclusions: This result indicates that the MNPs at low altitudes and latitudes have a large effect on the climate change in subalpine plant species. This study suggested that subalpine species are highly threatened due to climate change and that immediate actions are required to conserve subalpine species and to minimize the effect of climate change.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.106 no.1
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• pp.77-86
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• 2017

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship among climatic factors and radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi in South Korea. To determine the climate-growth relationship, cluster analysis was applied to group surveyed regions by the climatical similarity, and a dendroclimatological model was developed to predict radial growth for each climate group under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for greenhouse gases. The cluster analysis showed four climatic clusters (Cluster 1~4) from 10 regions for P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. The dendroclimatological model was developed through climatic variables and standardized residual chronology for each climatic cluster of P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. Four climatic variables were used in the models for P. densiflora ($R^2$ values between 0.38 to 0.58). Two to five climatic variables were used in the models for L. kaempferi ($R^2$ values between 0.31 to 0.43). The growth simulations with two RCP climate-change scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for growth prediction. The radial growth of the Cluster 4 of P. densiflora, the mountainous region at high elevation, tend to increase, while those of cluster 2 and 3 of P. densiflora, the region of the hightest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of the Cluster 1 of L. kaempferi the region of the lowest minimum temperature, while that of Cluster 2, the region of the highest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of Cluster 3 of L. kaempferi, the region in the east coast and Cluster 4, the region at high elevation, tends to hold steady. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for predicting changes in radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi caused by climate change.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.52 no.10
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• pp.671-680
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• 2019

Many researches illustrated that the magnitude and frequency of hydrological event would increase in the future due to changes of hydrological cycle components according to climate change. However, few studies performed quantitative analysis and evaluation of future rainfall in North Korea, where the damage caused by extreme precipitation is expected to occur as in South Korea. Therefore, this study predicted the extreme precipitation change of North Korea in the future (2020-2060) compared to the current (1981-2017) using stationary and nonstationary frequency analysis. This study conducted nonstationary frequency analysis considering the external factors (mean precipitation of JFM (Jan.-Mar.), AMJ (Apr.-Jun.), JAS (Jul.-Sept.), OND (Oct.-Dec.)) of the HadGEM2-AO model simulated according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios. In order to select external factors that have a similar tendency with extreme rainfall events in North Korea, the maximum annual rainfall data was obtained by using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method. Correlation analysis was performed between the extracted residue and the external factors. Considering selected external factors, nonstationary GEV model was constructed. In RCP4.5, four of the eight stations tended to decrease in future extreme precipitation compared to the present climate while three stations increased. On the other hand, in RCP8.5, two stations decreased while five stations increased.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.271-296
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• 2021

Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.