Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.14249/eia.2021.30.5.271

Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change  

Han, Jongsu (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Kim, Sungjin (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Kim, Dongmin (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Lee, Sawoo (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Hwang, Sangchul (Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water))
Kim, Jiwon (Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water))
Chung, Sewoong (Department of Environmental Engineering, Chungbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment / v.30, no.5, 2021 , pp. 271-296 More about this Journal
Abstract
Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.
Keywords
Climate change; River water temperature prediction; Reservoir stratification; AEM3D; Random Forest;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Blenckner T, Pettersson K, Padisak J. 2002. Lake plankton as a tracer to discover climate signals, Internationale Vereinigung fur theoretische und angewandte Limnologie: Verhandlungen 28(3): 1324-1327.
2 Firoozi F, Roozbahani A, Bavani AM. 2020. Developing a framework for assessment of climate change impact on thermal stratification of dam reservoirs, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 17(4): 2295-2310.   DOI
3 Ford PW, Boon PI, Lee K. 2002. Methane and oxygen dynamics in a shallow floodplain lake: the significance of periodic stratification, Hydrobiologia 485(1): 97-110.   DOI
4 Gooseff MN, Strzepek K, Chapra SC. 2005. Modeling the potential effects of climate change on water temperature downstream of a shallow reservoir, Lower Madison River, MT, Climatic Change 68(3): 331-353.   DOI
5 Hodges B, Dallimore C. 2016. Aquatic ecosystem model: AEM3D v1.0 user manual, Hydronumerics Pty Ltd.
6 Imberger J. 2004. A lake diagnostic system for managing lakes and reservoirs, Water Resources Impact 6(1): 7-11.
7 Jeong DI, Daigle A, St-Hilaire A. 2013. Development of a stochastic water temperature model and projection of future water temperature and extreme events in the Ouelle River basin in Quebec, Canada, River Research and Applications 29(7): 805-821. [Korean Literature]   DOI
8 Kankaala P, Huotari J, Tulonen T, Ojala A. 2013. Lake-size dependent physical forcing drives carbon dioxide and methane effluxes from lakes in a boreal landscape, Limnology and Oceanography 58(6): 1915-1930.   DOI
9 Deemer BR, Harrison JA, Li S, Beaulieu JJ, DelSontro T, Barros N, Bezerra-Neto JF, Powers SM, dos Santos MA, Vonk JA. 2016. Greenhouse gas emissions from reservoir water surfaces: a new global synthesis, BioScience 66(11): 949-964.   DOI
10 Ulanczyk R, Lozowski B, Woznica A, Absalon D, Kolada A. 2021. Water Quality and Ecosystem Modelling: Practical Application on Lakes and Reservoirs, Quality of Water Resources in Poland, 173-189.
11 Watson SB. 2004. Aquatic taste and odor: a primary signal of drinking-water integrity, Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health Part A, 67(20-22): 1779-1795.   DOI
12 Woolway RI, Maberly SC, Jones ID, Feuchtmayr H. 2014. A novel method for estimating the onset of thermal stratification in lakes from surface water measurements, Water Resources Research 50(6): 5131-5140.   DOI
13 Yi HS, Kim DS, Hwang MH, An KG. 2016. Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 32(2): 173-182. [Korean Literature]   DOI
14 Yi YK, Kang MG, Lee HS, Kim JY. 2006. Water Temperature Variation of a Stream Entering Soyang Reservoir, 1063-1067. [Korean Literature]
15 Yoon SW, Park GY, Chung SW, Kang BS. 2014. Projection of the Climate Change Effects on the Vertical Thermal Structure of Juam Reservoir 30(5): 491-502. [Korean Literature]   DOI
16 Woolway RI, Sharma S, Weyhenmeyer GA, Debolskiy A, Golub M, Mercado-Bettin D, Perroud M, Stepanenko V, Tan Z, Grant L, Ladwig R, Mesman J, Moore TN, Shatwell T, Vanderkelen I, Austin JA, DeGasperi CL, Dokulil M, Fuente SL, Mackay EB, Schladow SG, Watanabe S, Marce R, Pierson DC, Thiery W, Jennings E. 2021. Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change, Nature Communications 12(1): 1-11.   DOI
17 K-water. 2006. Daecheong Dam sedimentation survey report.
18 K-water. 2020. Dam operational handbook for practitioners.
19 Lee HS, Kim DS, Hwang MH, Ahn KG. Assessment of Runoff and Water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 32(2): 173-182. [Korean Literature]   DOI
20 Kim JY. 2013. Climate Change Status and Prospects through the 5th IPCC Report, The Science & Technology, 76-79. [Korean Literature]
21 Liaw A, Wiener M. 2002. Classification and regression by randomForest. R News 2(3): 18-22. [Korean Literature]
22 Liu WC, Chen WB. 2012. Prediction of water temperature in a subtropical subalpine lake using an artificial neural network and three-dimensional circulation models, Computers & Geosciences 45: 13-25.   DOI
23 Lu H, Ma X. 2020. Hybrid decision tree-based machine learning models for short-term water quality prediction, Chemosphere 249: 126169.   DOI
24 Mackey AP, Berrie AD. 1991. The prediction of water temperatures in chalk streams from air temperatures, Hydrobiologia 210(3): 183-189.   DOI
25 Modiri-Gharehveran M, Etemad-Shahidi A, Jabbari E. 2014. Effects of climate change on the thermal regime of a reservoir, In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management (Vol. 167, No. 10, pp. 601-611), Thomas Telford Ltd.
26 National Institute of Environmtental Research. 2003. Water quality survey of the Geum River system.
27 Nijssen B, Lettenmaier DP. 2004. Effect of precipitation sampling error on simulated hydrological fluxes and states: Anticipating the Global Precipitation Measurement satellites, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 109(D2).
28 Yun YJ, Park HS, Chung SW. 2019. Long-term Simulation of Water Temperature in Soyanggang Reservoir in Response to RCP 4.5 Climate Scenario, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 265-265. [Korean Literature]
29 You KA, Byeon MS, Hwang SJ, Rhew DH. 2013. Growth Characteristics of Blue-green Algae (Anabaena spiroides) Causing Tastes and Odors in the North-Han River, Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment 46(1): 135-144. [Korean Literature]   DOI
30 Yun YJ, Park HS, Chung SW, Kim YD, Ohn IS, Lee SR. 2020. Long-term Simulation and Uncertainty Quantification of Water Temperature in Soyanggang Reservoir due to Climate Change, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 36(1): 14-28. [Korean Literature]   DOI
31 Zamani B, Koch M. 2020. Comparison between two hydrodynamic models in simulating physical processes of a reservoir with complex morphology: Maroon Reservoir, Water 12(3): 814.   DOI
32 Lee SJ, Kim JW. 2019. Enhancement of Water Quality Prediction System for Scientific Management of Water Quality. Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference, 220-220. [Korean Literature]
33 Hong II, Kim JS, Kim KH, Jeon HS. 2019. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flow Regime and Physical Habitat for Fish. [Korean Literature]
34 Kang HS, Part MY, Jang JH. 2013. Effect of Climate Change on Fish Habitat in the Nakdong River Watershed 46(1): 1-12. [Korean Literature]   DOI
35 Breiman L. 2018. randomForest: Breiman and Cutler's Random Forests for Classification and Regression. R package version 4.6-12, Software available at URL: https://cran.rproject.org/package=randomForest, 0098-5589.
36 Stefan HG, Hondzo M, Fang X, Eaton JG, McCormick JH. 1996. Simulated long term temperature and dissolved oxygen characteristics of lakes in the north-central United States and associated fish habitat limits, Limnology and Oceanography 41(5): 1124-1135.   DOI
37 Yang YM, Chae MH, Lee DH, Park YK, Seok KS. 2021. Assessment of Water Quality and Sediment Pollution in Gap Stream, Journal of Environmental Analysis, Health and Toxicology 24(1): 13-25. [Korean Literature]   DOI
38 National Geographic, National Geographic, www.nationalgeographic.com.
39 Chung SW, Park JH, Kim Y. 2007. Application of CE-QUAL-W2 to Daecheong Reservoir for eutrophication simulation, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 23(1): 52-63. [Korean Literature]
40 Jung IW, Bae DH, Kim G. 2011. Recent trends of mean and extreme precipitation in Korea, International Journal of Climatology 31(3): 359-370. [Korean Literature]   DOI
41 Paerl HW, Paul VJ. 2012. Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria, Water Research 46(5): 1349-1363.   DOI
42 Huntington TG. 2006. Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle: Review and synthesis, Journal of Hydrology 319(1-4): 83-95.   DOI
43 Yoon WY, Chung SW. 2012. Analyzing the effect of global warming on the thermal stratification in Chungju reservoir, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 133-133. [Korean Literature]
44 Breiman L. 2001. Random forests, Machine Learning 45(1): 5-32.   DOI
45 Change IC. 2014. Mitigation of Climate Change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Vol. Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
46 Chung SW, Imberger J, Hipsey MR, Lee HS. 2014. The influence of physical and physiological processes on the spatial heterogeneity of a Microcystis bloom in a stratified reservoir, Ecological Modelling 289: 133-149. [Korean Literature]   DOI
47 Chung SW. 2004. Density Flow Regime of Turbidity Current into a Stratified Reservoir and Vertical Two-dimensional Modeling. Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers 26(9): 970-978. [Korean Literature]
48 Edwards KF, Thomas MK, Klausmeier CA, Litchman E. 2016. Phytoplankton growth and the interaction of light and temperature: A synthesis at the species and community level, Limnology and Oceanography 61(4): 1232-1244.   DOI
49 Fischer HB, List JE, Koh CR, Imberger J, Brooks NH. 1979. Mixing in inland and coastal waters, Academic Press.
50 Hipsey MR, Gal G, Antenucci JP, Zohary T, Makler V, Imberger J. 2006. Lake Kinneret water quality management system.
51 Korean Climate Data. 2018. Korean Peninsula Climate Change Prospect Analysis Report.
52 Kim JY. 2003. The evaluation of the eutrophication for the lakes by phosphorus loading, The Korean Environmental Sciences Society 12(7): 689-695. [Korean Literature]
53 Park HS, Chung SW, Kim SJ. 2021. Effect of buoyant turbulence and water quality factors on the CO2 net atmospheric flux changes in a stratified reservoir, Science of The Total Environment 776; 145940. [Korean Literature]   DOI
54 Park HS, Yoon SW, Chung SW, Hwang HS. 2016. Effect of Pollutants Control Measures in So-Oak Watershed on the Control of Algae Growth in Daecheong Reservoir, Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment 25(4): 248-260. [Korean Literature]   DOI
55 Quan Q, Hao Z, Xifeng H, Jingchun L. 2020. Research on water temperature prediction based on improved support vector regression. Neural Computing and Applications, 1-10.
56 Ryu IG, Yu SJ, Chung SW. 2020. Characterizing density flow regimes of three rivers with different physicochemical properties in a run-of-the-river reservoir, Water 12(3): 717. [Korean Literature]   DOI
57 Change, IPOC. 2001. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Genebra, Suica.
58 Fang X, Stefan HG. 2009. Simulations of climate effects on water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and ice and snow covers in lakes of the contiguous US under past and future climate scenarios, Limnology and Oceanography 54(6-2): 2359-2370.   DOI
59 Shon TS, Lee SD, Kim SD, Shin HS. 2010. An Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on Flow in Nakdong River Basin Using Watershed-Based Model, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 43(10): 865-881. [Korean Literature]   DOI
60 Caissie D, El-Jabi N, Satish MG. 2001. Modelling of maximum daily water temperatures in a small stream using air temperatures, Journal of Hydrology 251(1-2): 14-28.   DOI
61 Chung NM, Park BK, Kim KH. 2011. Potential Effect of Increased Water Temperature on Fish Habitats in Han River Watershed 27(3): 314-321. [Korean Literature]
62 Chung SW, Oh JK. 2006. River water Temperature Variations at Upstream of Daecheong Lake During Rainfall Events and Development of Prediction Models, Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 39(1): 79-88. [Korean Literature]   DOI
63 Coats R, Reuter J, Dettinger M, Riverson J, Sahoo G, Schladow G, Costa-Cabral M. 2010. The effects of climate change on lake Tahoe in the 21st century: meteorology, hydrology, loading and lake response, Prepared for Jonathan Long Pacific Southwest Research Station, Tahoe Environmental Science Center, p. 291.
64 An IK, Park HS, Chung SW, Ryu IG, Choi JK, Kim JW. 2020. Analysis of organic carbon cycle and mass balance in Daecheong reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model, Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 36(4): 284-299. [Korean Literature]   DOI